Blizzard of 93

Here is the CTP forecast discussion this morning “160+KT jetlet moving poleward as the deep upper trough advances will deepen the moisture and a sfc low bombs out as it develops along the north-south sfc trough which moves overhead tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens by Sat sunrise in the NW as the low pulls in the cold air from the NW. The light precip (rain/snow) in the evening will spread across the area, turning to all snow before midnight for the NW half, and around sunrise Sat in Harrisburg. The change then happens quickly for Lancaster. Expect the heaviest snow rates to occur from 12-18Z Sat, and mainly in the central and NE mountains. Many locations will have >=1"/hr rates for part of that time period. There has been a cooler trend with a slightly more-easterly track/solution with the past few mdl cycles. This puts Central PA into the bullseye for the heaviest snow. Newest NAM and some CAMs produce greater snow amounts over the SErn counties on Sat than before. This has necessitated that a winter storm watch be posted for the southern mountains and Lower Susq. The rest of the area should see around 6 inches or more, and a widespread warning has been posted elsewhere. Highest amounts should be over the NE where the snow lasts longest and the favorable jet dynamics create good banding. The wind will crank up, and get close to advy criteria as the low scoots just SE of the state, crossing DE and riding up the NJ/NY coasts. That storm track is typically a favorable track for heavy snow in the central mtns. The wind will just create more problems as it begins to get strong as the snow is just peaking in intensity.”

Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 426 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 PAZ019-025>028-045-046-049>053-058-112130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.220312T0900Z-220313T0000Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Schuylkill- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, and Pottsville 426 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain will develop after sunset and gradually turn to snow after midnight. The snow will be heaviest between 5 AM EST and noon, but lighter snow may continue for the rest of the day on Saturday.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 426 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066-112130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.220312T0900Z-220312T2100Z/ Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 426 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...South central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain will start tonight, and turn to snow before sunrise west of I-83, and shortly after sunrise to the east of I-83. The snow will be heaviest between 6 AM EST and 2 PM EST, tapering off in the afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel.

The 3k NAM at 6z has a Lancaster county bullseye!

Yes, the 0z Euro was a good run. I like seeing the 6 + inch snow amounts well off to our south & east. We should have some room to handle the inevitable shifting.

The 0z RGEM looks good

Here are the 12k & 3k NAMs at 0z

Great, now we have Canderson and MU on board….now we just need CTP!

It’s one regular season game. The Sixers will be fine.

Exactly, it’s 1 regular season game. The Nets need this 1 way more than Sixers do tonight. The Nets right now are in the play in tournament seeding area.

Heck, I see 8.1 in northern MD not far from your yard!

The Nets need this win more than the Sixers do at this time. I don’t think it’s over, but not looking good tonight so far.

There are 8+ amounts on that run near Pillow, South Mountain and in Perry county not far from my yard!

18z Euro ensemble & Control have the heaviest CTP snow focused in the Susquehanna Valley as well.

Susquehanna Valley bullseye this HRRR run!

Here is another view of the 0z HRRR.

I’ll take a combo of the 12z Canadian, 18z Euro & 12 NAM please. Here is the 12z Canadian in case it wasn’t posted earlier.

I really like where we are sitting this time. Lots of room in the LSV to handle shifts in all directions this run!

The 18z GEFS is looking good for CTP snow. Several good hits on the individual ensemble members.

Here is 6z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera

The 6z Euro shifted east and now brings heavier snow to eastern PA on Saturday.

Same here, the cars are all encased in heavy frost.

CTP is ramping up their discussion today&& “LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An impactful winter storm is on tap for the beginning half of the weekend. Precipitation enters the region from the northwest as rain and quickly overspreads PA beginning Friday night. The transition to snow in the northwest will be rather swift given the influx of frigid air. The tight temperature gradient associated with this system will lead to a mainly rain event in the southeast and an impactful winter event for the north, west, and central PA. The rain/snow transition zone will be located near and along the I-80/I-99 corridor with rain in the southeast and snow in the northwest. Given the vast amount of cold air that will plunge into the region swiftly, there is little likelihood that there will be any wintry mix or ice out of this system. The dominant precipitation types will be rain and snow. By Saturday afternoon, all of the Commonwealth transitions over to snow before tapering off by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow rates and SLRs are expected to be high, but the exact location of the heaviest banding of snow is still uncertain. Currently, the forecast has 6 to 8" in the northeast and 4 to 6" for much of the rest of the Commonwealth aside from the southeast, which will likely only see about an inch or two of snow. As snow starts to taper off on Saturday the wind is going to pick up and temperatures will tank. Gusts of 30+ mph combined with fresh dry snow will likely lead to drifting snow.”

Good to see these 2 that you posted agree. The Canadian is also onboard now, but the GFS needs some work.

Here are CTP’s thoughts on the weekend. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 pm update... The highlight of this period will be the expected winter storm Friday night and Saturday. Still the customary model uncertainty with just how quickly colder air pours into the region late Friday night and Saturday morning, and how that timing meshes with the best forcing/heaviest precipitation. The latest model consensus has the highest chance for accumulating snow and perhaps locally heavy (4-6"+) amounts north of I-80 and west of I-99. A tight gradient in snowfall is likely south and east of these regions. One factor that was noted in model guidance this far out, unlike some other systems we`ve had this winter, is a very sharp rain to snow transition and little in the way of either sleet or freezing rain.