Blizzard of 93

Here is CTP’s latest for tomorrow: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Overnight model consensus continued to weaken and shunt deeper moisture south of my CWA from a suppressed system heading off the mid Atlantic coast at midweek. Setup involving a weak clipper passing north of PA will produce just a bit of light snow late tonight into Wednesday, with secondary development too weak and too far south and east to give any appreciable accumulation to central PA. downward POP trend continued with this package for Tuesday night and Wednesday with the best chance for light WAA snow over the southwest mtns/southern tier of CPA.

That was a disappointing NAM run for sure. Let’s see what the rest of 0z has to say later.

It’s all good. No denying the warm up next week, but it should be temporary. I’m looking forward to the minor event on Wednesday. Then I’m looking ahead to the week of the 20th when we should be starting to return to a better pattern. The MJO should be going into phase 7 which should help to turn the pattern more favorable for winter weather towards the holidays.

Yes, back to optimistic thoughts… The 18z EPS was a step in the right direction.

Yeah, it will probably never ever snow again and stuff…. My glass is always half full, but yours seems to always be half empty…. You might want to consider taking a break if it gets you this upset.

The 18z Euro shows slight improvement for Wednesday.

Here is CTP’s latest Hazardous Outlook for most of our region. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Light snow accumulation between a coating and 2 inches is becoming more probable on Wednesday and could result in travel disruptions.

Temps look good to accumulate, especially with the low sun angle.

Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Wednesday Light snow likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I really enjoy snow games.

I would take the 18z NAM & 18z HRRR for Wednesday.

I like the look of the 6z at the end of the 16 day run. Lots of cold high pressure to the north with a storm in the south central states. If I may extrapolate the 384 hr. GFS just this once…. That storm could arrive right in time for Christmas!

The 6z GFS still has a couple inches of snow for the LSV on Wednesday.

Look what’s back for the LSV on Wednesday according to the 0z GFS…. I would be happy with a nice 2-4 inches of snow Advisory level event.

Here is the latest from CTP Hazardous Outlook .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Wind gusts from the west between 35 and 45 mph are expected Monday afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and may result in a few isolated power outages. A light snow accumulation is possible on Wednesday and could result in limited to minor travel impacts. There is still some variability in the forecast so confidence remains low in regards to how much snow will fall.

@paweather , you and I should get together to play tennis sometime. We just need 1 more to get a doubles match going.

Unfortunately the trend is not our friend. I’m going to give it until tomorrow night before writing it off.

It’s been a roller coaster already and it’s only December 5th.

Hopefully it’s not a north trend like last December’s storm! If the GFS is right, we only would need a 50 mile bump north to get in the better snow.

If MDT ends up with 2 inches of snow on Wednesday, I would be thrilled to get our first Advisory level measurable snow on the board. Lots of time for a little bump back north. We have seen this millions of times over the years. This is the 12z GFS.

I like the last line… “latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.”

Here are CTP’s full thoughts this morning from their discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with regard to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light precipitation event for most of central Pa and perhaps moderate over southeast Pa if phasing of southern and northern branches of jet stream occurs soon enough to deepen surface low before exiting the Mid Atlantic coast. Ensemble mean qpf is currently only between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, but several members are significantly wetter over the southeast half of Pa. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in cold air and latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.

I love when CTP starts talking like this….

Here is more from CTP this morning. After a cold but mainly dry day Tuesday, eyes will turn their focus on a potential winter storm that will arrive from the Southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley for Wednesday.

Not really… the GFS has been steady with its solution for CTP for the last 3 runs.