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Blizzard of 93

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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93

  1. Blizzard of 93
    The EPS has .8 to .9 total precip for the LSV. If the dominant precip type is snow, there is more room for upside in the LSV.
  2. Blizzard of 93
    Here are the 0z Euro low clusters. Many of these individual ensemble member tracks could work well for us.
  3. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z EPS has that classic look with an intensifying coastal low as it moves northeast. The precip shield looks reasonable given the track on this run.
  4. Blizzard of 93
    Here is the total precip & snow for the Monday/Tuesday event period. There is even more upside potential for snow in the LSV with the roughly 1 inch of total precip in the LSV that is shown this run.
  5. Blizzard of 93
  6. Blizzard of 93
    The low reaches the 970s & eventually stalls out in eastern Massachusetts while still throwing back light snow to us into Tuesday pm.
  7. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z Euro made a good improvement for the Monday event for CTP & the LSV. It shows a nice low track that intensifies off of the NC coast as it moves north & east. There is a much better depiction of the typical precip field in this scenario for our region with this type of coastal low. We are very much in the game with a few days to go.
  8. Blizzard of 93
    Here are the 18z EPS low locations for Monday.
  9. Blizzard of 93
    The 18z EPS keep the eastern half of PA in the game for the Sunday night into Monday storm chance.
  10. Blizzard of 93
    3k 18z NAM improved too for Harrisburg
  11. Blizzard of 93
    I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z HRRR… Looks good for the Harrisburg area. Bullseye for @paweather
  12. Blizzard of 93
    The 6z GFS is still full of chances even after the Monday event, so maybe one of these will get all of CTP a good snowstorm before we are done this month.
  13. Blizzard of 93
    Let’s not get carried away, these events are not going to be total failures. The 6z GFS still looks good for an Advisory event on Sunday for most of us except for southern York & Lancaster this run.
  14. Blizzard of 93
    Unfortunately, the models cut back some for the LSV for tomorrow. The timing & the bulk of the good precip swinging a bit to our north doesn’t help our snow amounts at this point.
  15. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z FV3 is good for vast majority of the LSV & CTP
  16. Blizzard of 93
    Yes, I just posted it…
  17. Blizzard of 93
    The 3k NAM is much better for the LSV
  18. Blizzard of 93
    Lol…They are waiting for the CRAS to get on board before they commit…
  19. Blizzard of 93
    0z HRRR looks good at the end of its 48 hour run by Friday evening, with a little more to go after the run ends.
  20. Blizzard of 93
    Here is a recap of the 12z snow maps from the 3 major globals for the combined totals for both events as of next Tuesday. This is by far the best consensus that we have seen this season at this range with 2 events on tap over the next 5 days.
  21. Blizzard of 93
    I agree 100% with you! If we are initially cold enough for snow, I don’t believe that we change to rain with a slightly offshore low track that is intensifying as it tracks from NC to NJ. If anything, the precip shield should expand & the column should cool with that Euro look.
  22. Blizzard of 93
    I really like the look of the 18z 3k NAM for all of CTP. The run ends at 60 hours Friday evening, so there would a more for the eastern part of the region to follow before it ends early Saturday.
  23. Blizzard of 93
    Many of us will do well on Friday, but south of the turnpike could struggle.
  24. Blizzard of 93
    Here is the combined total snow for both events on the 12z GFS & 12z Canadian by Tuesday am. Best short to medium term snow map combination of the season for Harrisburg on 2 models at this range.
  25. Blizzard of 93
    It’s all about the rates.
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