Blizzard of 93

Still nice to have this even though it’s a mix mess… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 PAZ004>006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-049-050-056-057-059- 063>066-252100- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin- Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Mifflintown, Emporium, Warren, Chambersburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Bradford, Mount Union, Newport, Lewistown, Lebanon, Carlisle, State College, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, Huntingdon, Coudersport, Hershey, York, and McConnellsburg 213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Hazardous travel conditions are likely. Plan on slippery road conditions. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…? Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events. This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

That was a little over a week after many of us got around 10 inches of snow that got wiped out by the storm you are referencing.

12z GFS is bringing .50 to .75 of precip into the cold dome. Hopefully heavy rates at the start can put down a little snow before the warming aloft kicks in, but it that amount of sleet would be impressive.

For those of us team heavy sleet, the 12z GFS delivers around 2 inches of sleet in the LSV on Friday with minimal freezing rain this run.

Lol, their word salad point & clicks are amusing.

Agreed, if we must have a slop fest, I don’t mind them as much when we actually get the 1 or two inches of snow before the mix to sleet/freezing rain. The look of snow on the ground plus the building layer of ice makes the scenery much better. This storm looks to change over to mostly sleet in the LSV, so we can hopefully measure & pad stats too.

CTP recorded .3” of snow yesterday bringing the seasonal total to date to 5.0” ,which is 1.0 above normal season to date.

CTP’s thoughts on Friday. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The weather looks largely benign for the rest of Christmas Day with cloudy skies, WNW breeze and max temps +5-10F above the historical average. High pressure ridge drifts over CPA Thursday night bringing some clearing and colder min temps in the 15-25F range. The sfc ridge and cold air wedge channels down the east side of the Appalachians by Friday morning - setting the stage for a classic CAD "overrunning" post-Christmas wintry mix event. Strong warm air advection, isentropic lift, and healthy mid-to- upper level ascent (ahead of sfc low tracking from IA/IL border eastward to western PA btwn 12-24Z Friday) will send anomalous moisture plume into a cold and dry boundary layer (sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures at the surface). This will allow for an icy mix of sleet/freezing rain over the southwest 1/3 of the CWA. The best ice signal >0.25" is over the Laurel Highlands. Farther to the northeast where cold layer is gradually deeper, snow/sleet/zr transition is forecast. A deep cold layer below the elevated warm nose could favor the majority of precip falling as sleet over the interior central ridge and valley region where WPC WWD shows a broad area of 0.50"+ of sleet accumulation. Precip should stay snow the longest over the northeast periphery of the CWA with perhaps up to 4-6" in the eastern portions of Tioga/Sullivan/Columbia/Schuylkill Cos. There remains ongoing fluctuations in the forecast track which could result in additional changes to which areas see the most snow and ice. That being said, we have high confidence in an impactful post-Christmas winter wx event. We issued a winter storm watch for the entire CWA with an emphasis on hazardous travel impacts

0z GFS shows heavy sleet for most of us on Friday. Warning level snow for northeast PA this run.

Tomorrow should be relatively nice with sun & temps in the low 40s. Hopefully that helps a bit.

I like this post from @mitchnick in his home away from home thread…. “It shows up on the snow depth map. Our snow depth (including sleet of course), is greater than some all snow locations thanks to the density of the sleet.”

MDT reported light snow the last couple of hours, so maybe we tack on a few tenths today to the monthly tally ?

For Friday, the Latest GFS & Euro both have a little snow for the Susquehanna Valley changing to an icy mix potential. The GFS brings more sleet & the Euro brings more freezing rain at this time. Still time, but for more snow instead of mix, we need that -NAO to flex a bit more to lock in that High in Quebec.

Bare ground in Marysville. If there were any flakes, I missed them.

0z GFS & 0z Canadian both show a sleet fest for many of us on Friday.

With that dew point you should drop to near 30 when precipitation arrives. Tonight is a light event, but it doesn’t take much frozen to cause road issues.

How did the 18z Euro AI & GFS AI trend for us for Friday?

Thankfully Mt. Holly has a very good discussion for the Friday potential… LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring widespread precipitation to our area. The more recent trends over the last few runs from guidance has resulted in significant changes to the forecast. The main reason is a much stronger high that suppresses a weaker low. This trend keeps much of our area in a setup for colder air to remain in place thanks to the stronger high to the north. A more suppressed and southern track of this low keeps widespread precipitation for the area but also prevents a lot of the warm air advection from getting into the region. The updated forecast now has highs on Friday in the mid to upper 30s for the I- 95 corridor and west with mid to upper 20s in the Poconos. Areas south and east of the I-95 corridor have highs in the low to mid 40s. Wintry precipitation is now the result for much of the area for at least part of the timeframe from daybreak Friday into Saturday. Mixed precipitation may make it as far south as parts of Delmarva.

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.

For Friday, the 18z GFS still has snow to a nasty wintry mix potential. It will all depend on the strength & position of that High sitting over Quebec. Lots of time, but good to see the trend from last night hold for today’s runs so far.

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly. The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

No disappointment here, just a super busy time of year with the holidays!