Blizzard of 93

0z GEFS snow

Thanks to @Newman for showing the improvement on the 0z GEFS over its 18z run.

Way too soon for numbers. It will all come down to banding & rates.

Another beautiful GFS run.

Nice 18z GEFS uptick in the snow map to correspond with the low clusters.

Definitely a step in the right direction

0z NBM & NBM Para both show Warning level snow potential in the LSV.

The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z.

18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time.

Great to see this unexpected turn of events… usually it’s the other way around! 0z will be interesting to say the least!

Absolutely, unbelievable that it won’t back down!

Checking in over lunch time & the 12z Euro agrees mostly with your current thoughts. It is remarkable that the GFS doubled down at 12z. Even half of that run would be great to see. This Euro run we get a few inches from the initial coastal low before it heads east. Then the LSV gets bullseyed with the Norlun Sunday night & tacks in a few more inches. In total, this run still brings Warning level snow to most of the LSV. Maybe a compromise of some kind will still take place before game time? Here is the 12z Euro.

6z GEFS, EPS & AI EPS agree on at least a solid Advisory level snow for us this Sunday into Monday.

A compromise between the Euro & GFS would deliver a significant event to many of us.

The 6z Euro gets a Warning level event to a good chunk of the LSV thanks to the Norlun trough setting up over our region.

The 6z GFS was likely the best case scenario & low likelihood of verifying, but my goodness is it beautiful for Sunday. Just 1 time could it be right?

The 0z Canadian gets a healthy coastal low going off of the coast of Norfolk, but then it slides mostly east from there as it intensifies. The LSV gets some snow from the coastal & then tacks on from the Norlun as the storm exits east. Long way to go, but I like seeing the 0z GFS & Canadian keeping us in the game for a Warning level chance. I think the odds of an Advisory level event for us are certainly increasing.

If this low track were to verify as the low intensifies heading northward, heavier snow would push further back into CTP.

Absolutely, great to see 2 good runs in a row by the GFS.

Where do we sign up for the 18z GFS to please verify for Sunday?

Here is the 6z AI EPS 48 hour snow through Monday.

Here is the 6z AI EPS 48 hour snow through Monday.

Will, that’s the 18z run.

Ensembles still say that we have a chance. Here are the 0z Canadian ensemble & 6z EPS. The Canadian ensemble on WB only has 24 hr, so there might be a little more snow outside this window. The Euro products have 24, 48 & 72 hour windows available.