Blizzard of 93

CTP has no changes & just reissued this in the last hour… Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-261800- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Williamsport, Mifflintown, Pottsville, Lock Haven, Newport, York, Danville, Lebanon, State College, Altoona, Emporium, Berwick, Coudersport, Philipsburg, Wellsboro, Huntingdon, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Mansfield, Carlisle, Lancaster, Lewistown, Shamokin, Sunbury, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Gettysburg, Mount Union, Bedford, Trout Run, Laporte, Harrisburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, and McConnellsburg 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Most of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much of the precipitation could fall as sleet. Sleet and freezing rain can both be dangerous, especially on bridges and sidewalks. They can also weigh down tree limbs and power lines. Power outages are possible.

Lol, with temps in the 20s & at least .3 of precipitation on the way…? Maybe it will be 80 tomorrow & we can jump in a swimming pool too?

The only probability scale that we should be using is the fact that any models forecasting warmth in week 2 or beyond have been wrong this season. Cold has won out since Thanksgiving this year. We will have our chances to score.

I’m expecting a disaster on the roads. Lots of people off of work will be out shopping, using restaurant gift cards & continuing holiday get togethers. Too many people with the “it’s not so bad” attitude could be involved in holiday fender benders.

12z Euro showed a chance on January 6th. We should have our opportunities.

Temps on both Euro & GFS are still in the 20s for most of us tomorrow early evening at 7 pm.

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am. 18z Euro says majority is freezing rain. 18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

12z Euro still sees this as primarily a freezing rain threat for most of us. Some have mentioned the Euro struggles to see sleet, so it will come down to the upper level temperatures. Surface temperature at the height of the storm tomorrow evening are in the 20s for most of us, so whatever falls will be a problem on the roads.

12z HRRR gets a good amount of sleet into most of CTP & the decent snow line this run gets into a good portion of Dauphin, Lebanon & Lancaster county.

Still nice to have this even though it’s a mix mess… Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 PAZ004>006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-049-050-056-057-059- 063>066-252100- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin- Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Mifflintown, Emporium, Warren, Chambersburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Bradford, Mount Union, Newport, Lewistown, Lebanon, Carlisle, State College, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Gettysburg, Huntingdon, Coudersport, Hershey, York, and McConnellsburg 213 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Hazardous travel conditions are likely. Plan on slippery road conditions. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Remember around Thanksgiving when we thought we were going to lose the first 2 weeks of December & then things would look better towards mid month…? Reality is that we had well below normal temps & most have had a couple of measurable snow events. This upcoming pattern looks variable with chances if of course the timing & track are right.

That was a little over a week after many of us got around 10 inches of snow that got wiped out by the storm you are referencing.

12z GFS is bringing .50 to .75 of precip into the cold dome. Hopefully heavy rates at the start can put down a little snow before the warming aloft kicks in, but it that amount of sleet would be impressive.

For those of us team heavy sleet, the 12z GFS delivers around 2 inches of sleet in the LSV on Friday with minimal freezing rain this run.

Lol, their word salad point & clicks are amusing.

Agreed, if we must have a slop fest, I don’t mind them as much when we actually get the 1 or two inches of snow before the mix to sleet/freezing rain. The look of snow on the ground plus the building layer of ice makes the scenery much better. This storm looks to change over to mostly sleet in the LSV, so we can hopefully measure & pad stats too.

CTP recorded .3” of snow yesterday bringing the seasonal total to date to 5.0” ,which is 1.0 above normal season to date.

CTP’s thoughts on Friday. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The weather looks largely benign for the rest of Christmas Day with cloudy skies, WNW breeze and max temps +5-10F above the historical average. High pressure ridge drifts over CPA Thursday night bringing some clearing and colder min temps in the 15-25F range. The sfc ridge and cold air wedge channels down the east side of the Appalachians by Friday morning - setting the stage for a classic CAD "overrunning" post-Christmas wintry mix event. Strong warm air advection, isentropic lift, and healthy mid-to- upper level ascent (ahead of sfc low tracking from IA/IL border eastward to western PA btwn 12-24Z Friday) will send anomalous moisture plume into a cold and dry boundary layer (sub-freezing wet bulb temperatures at the surface). This will allow for an icy mix of sleet/freezing rain over the southwest 1/3 of the CWA. The best ice signal >0.25" is over the Laurel Highlands. Farther to the northeast where cold layer is gradually deeper, snow/sleet/zr transition is forecast. A deep cold layer below the elevated warm nose could favor the majority of precip falling as sleet over the interior central ridge and valley region where WPC WWD shows a broad area of 0.50"+ of sleet accumulation. Precip should stay snow the longest over the northeast periphery of the CWA with perhaps up to 4-6" in the eastern portions of Tioga/Sullivan/Columbia/Schuylkill Cos. There remains ongoing fluctuations in the forecast track which could result in additional changes to which areas see the most snow and ice. That being said, we have high confidence in an impactful post-Christmas winter wx event. We issued a winter storm watch for the entire CWA with an emphasis on hazardous travel impacts

0z GFS shows heavy sleet for most of us on Friday. Warning level snow for northeast PA this run.

Tomorrow should be relatively nice with sun & temps in the low 40s. Hopefully that helps a bit.

I like this post from @mitchnick in his home away from home thread…. “It shows up on the snow depth map. Our snow depth (including sleet of course), is greater than some all snow locations thanks to the density of the sleet.”

MDT reported light snow the last couple of hours, so maybe we tack on a few tenths today to the monthly tally ?

For Friday, the Latest GFS & Euro both have a little snow for the Susquehanna Valley changing to an icy mix potential. The GFS brings more sleet & the Euro brings more freezing rain at this time. Still time, but for more snow instead of mix, we need that -NAO to flex a bit more to lock in that High in Quebec.

Bare ground in Marysville. If there were any flakes, I missed them.