Blizzard of 93

0z Euro-CTP close up

0z Euro still is delivering 12 to 16 to the LSV reporting stations.

0z High res Canadian HRDPS still looks good.

0z RGEM still looking good for the LSV

0z GFS steady for most.

18z RGEM looks great for all of us.

@psuhoffman just made a great post about the model situation for this storm. “So I’ve never seen this drastic of a split between the globals and American run CAMs at this range. What’s odd about this and gives me no past reference to draw on is typically when we see this kind of thing the euro and rgem/HRDPS kind of bridge the gap as those 3 are decent at seeing mid level warming. But they are all in the camp with the other globals (UK/Icon/gfs). The impact is most drastic actually for Maryland. Around DC and south we’re talking maybe the difference between 4-5” and 6-8”. But for places NW of 95 in extreme NW VA up through central MD we’re talking the difference between 5-6” and 10-12”! The divergence seems simple. The globals along with the Canadian high res models have an intense WAA band over the area from 12z-18z that the American CAMs do not. That’s why they are warmer. Less dynamic cooling to fight off the WAA at mid levels. Also less precip. That combo means 6” instead of 12” for places like Winchester-Frederick-westminster. What this comes down to imo is which camp is correct about the precip representation from 12-18z. Unfortunately I don’t have any great insight. Usually here is when I’d be saying “in this or that situation this is what happened” but I can’t remember a single case like this to draw upon. I guess I’m gonna ride with the euro camp. It would be hard to take the NAM and a bunch of experimental stuff over the highest verification tools we have. But on the other hand those CAMs were designed for this. When they score the euro a 30 mile shift in 800 mb temps and a meso scale precip band aren’t really going to impact those scores at all! Yes I just contradicted myself. If I had to make a forecast maybe I’d hedge and go in between even though that’s probably not the most likely outcome, one of these camps is going to win”

Juiced up!

How about this first….wow! I’m sure it’s overdone a bit, but even even 75% of this would be impressive.

18z Euro only mixes turnpike & south by 0z & then mix creeps slightly further north by tomorrow evening as things begin to wind down.

18z Euro is all snow for everyone through 1 pm tomorrow. Then by 4 pm, only southern York & Lanco begin to mix.

18z Euro might be the best run yet for this event! Wow!

Current dew point st MDT is -7 Impressive air mass that should help us.

@Jns2183 this is next level information! Thanks

18z GFS brings the goods again!

Good to see…

The short range 12z Canadians also finally ran & the RGEM & HRDPS look a lot like the Euro, HRRR & GFS. Every freaking model vs. the NAMs…

Also, looks a lot like the Euro.

Looks a lot like the Euro…

Yes, towards the end of the storm tomorrow evening…

From our old friend @MillvilleWx posted recently in the Mid Atlantic thread. Final Forecast for the Storm Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone!

From our long lost friend @mitchnick in the other thread… No GGEM or RGEM, but the Geps updated and here's its snowfall. Not bad folks. EDIT: Obviously includes sleet at 10:1

The Euro this close in should always be factored in to me.

CTP close up of the Euro.

Mix reaches Harrisburg, Lebanon & Carlisle by evening when precip rates begin to back off.