Blizzard of 93

Sleet covered roads at least make it look more wintry. Looks to be about half an inch of sleet out there on top of a glaze of freezing rain. Freezing drizzle later should make this a real treat to remove in the morning from the sidewalk.

Puking sleet right in Marysville now after a period a freezing rain. Absolute skating rink out there now. Temp 27 Dew point 24

Heavier band looks to be approaching the western LSV in Adams, Cumberland & Perry on the march due east.

Sleet & Freezing rain mix to start in Marysville transitioned to moderate sleet. The cars are already encrusted in Ice & getting sleet covered. Temp 28 Dew point 20

MDT dew point is currently 9. Lots of cold air in place, so say it with me… “air temp will drop when precipitation begins”. Lol!

Look at your dew point…………..

MDT is above normal for the season to date at 5.0”

The Op runs are showing a lot of activity in the first 10 days of January with storms actually approaching from the south & west instead of the north. We will likely have the chance to win & lose, but I think it will be better than tracking weak Clippers that the previous few weeks have brought us.

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

Additionally, most of us are slightly above normal snow for the season to date as well.

I didn’t realize that was good old Steve D. I would love for him to be right for back here in our area, but I don’t see any of us getting near 4 or 6 inches. Maybe we get 1 or 2 of slop.

Well, I remember last year when for 2 or 3 weeks in late January into mid February, all 3 global ensemble models had our region consistently near 10 inches or more of snow. Ground truth turned out to be a light event or two. Point is, I no longer get excited about the 15 day ensemble totals until there is a specific threat to track. They should mainly be used for pattern recognition & identifying windows of opportunity in my opinion.

Looking out to the longer range, the full first week of January looks to be active with chances for Wintry weather. Current modeling shows storm systems actually approaching from the south & west instead of the current northern stream dominated pattern from the last few weeks. I think we may be busy tracking on here just after New Year’s. Here’s an example from the overnight Euro & GFS of the early January potential.

More from CTP An impactful winter system is expected to impact central Pennsylvania on Boxing Day (Friday) with a wintry mix in play for the entire forecast area as a shortwave trough and low pressure associated with this feature currently stationed over the Midwest approach the region. Ahead of this system, departing high pressure has allowed for some clearing with a shallow cold air wedge beginning for form on the eastern periphery of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) set up ahead of the precipitation. Given this signal, have trended temperatures throughout the entire near-term below NBM guidance given that there will be impact on precipitation types as temperatures generally range in the mid-to-upper 20s across the area as precipitation begins across the region. Recent model soundings continue to outline an elevated warm nose across western Pennsylvania, which continues to outline this area for the highest freezing rain potential with this system in the areas where an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect. The bulk of model guidance continues to outline freezing rain continuing throughout much of the event across the Laurels and portions of northwestern Pennsylvania, with the best timing for significant icing coming between 18Z-00Z (1pm-7pm EST) with some sleet beginning to mix in during this timeframe. Minimal changes to the forecast in this area of the CWA with this forecast cycle, thus the Ice Storm Warning remains in good shape moving forward. Further east, there recent HREF model guidance continues to outline the central third of the forecast area for sleet potential at onset with areas north/east of I-80/US-15 likely experiencing a brief window of snow before transitioning to sleet after 18Z (1pm EST). Sleet/snow accumulations generally range between below an inch for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area with recent NBM/HREF model guidance bringing a slight increase in snowfall totals across the eastern periphery of the forecast area, where 1-2" of storm-total snowfall is expected. Winter Weather Advisory remains unchanged this cycle; however, quicker movement of the system could promote the bulk of precipitation tapering off across the forecast area shortly after midnight Friday night.

CTP is on their game this morning. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation enters west-central Pennsylvania slightly after sunrise, with a mix of freezing rain and sleet being the predominant precipitation type at onset. - Wintry mix expands across all of central Pennsylvania during the morning hours, continuing through the evening hours. - Prolonged threat for freezing rain on Friday brings the highest ice accumulation across western Pennsylvania, where an Ice Storm Warning is in effect. - Sleet/snow accumulations across the rest of central Pennsylvania will bring slick conditions for those traveling on Friday, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

This forecast is wayyyyyyyyyyy off for CTP area at least! Wow, they are truly delusional & living in fantasy land!

CTP has no changes & just reissued this in the last hour… Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-261800- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Williamsport, Mifflintown, Pottsville, Lock Haven, Newport, York, Danville, Lebanon, State College, Altoona, Emporium, Berwick, Coudersport, Philipsburg, Wellsboro, Huntingdon, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Mansfield, Carlisle, Lancaster, Lewistown, Shamokin, Sunbury, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Gettysburg, Mount Union, Bedford, Trout Run, Laporte, Harrisburg, Renovo, Selinsgrove, and McConnellsburg 951 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Most of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much of the precipitation could fall as sleet. Sleet and freezing rain can both be dangerous, especially on bridges and sidewalks. They can also weigh down tree limbs and power lines. Power outages are possible.

Lol, with temps in the 20s & at least .3 of precipitation on the way…? Maybe it will be 80 tomorrow & we can jump in a swimming pool too?

The only probability scale that we should be using is the fact that any models forecasting warmth in week 2 or beyond have been wrong this season. Cold has won out since Thanksgiving this year. We will have our chances to score.

I’m expecting a disaster on the roads. Lots of people off of work will be out shopping, using restaurant gift cards & continuing holiday get togethers. Too many people with the “it’s not so bad” attitude could be involved in holiday fender benders.

12z Euro showed a chance on January 6th. We should have our opportunities.

Temps on both Euro & GFS are still in the 20s for most of us tomorrow early evening at 7 pm.

Exactly, we are not getting near freezing tomorrow. Conditions won’t improve until Saturday am. 18z Euro says majority is freezing rain. 18z GFS says majority is sleet for us.

12z Euro still sees this as primarily a freezing rain threat for most of us. Some have mentioned the Euro struggles to see sleet, so it will come down to the upper level temperatures. Surface temperature at the height of the storm tomorrow evening are in the 20s for most of us, so whatever falls will be a problem on the roads.

12z HRRR gets a good amount of sleet into most of CTP & the decent snow line this run gets into a good portion of Dauphin, Lebanon & Lancaster county.