Nobody can say...they’ve all been wrong. Just wait and see. It’s really that simple. Why would anybody believe any long term modeling this year...cuz as you’ve stated they can’t get anything right outside 5-7 days.
At some point you’d have to think something has to break favorable...being were only two days past mid January, right?
Or it’ll be worse than ‘12 and go down in infamy. That’d be extreme, just not in the way we’d all like.