WinterWolf

Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close.

Enjoy your vacation…Wtf are you doing posting here, when you’re in a tropical paradise?

Good analogy .

Lol…good one Go Kart. For a half inch..I’ll pass on this one.

Please…I hope nothing falls here tonight. Washed the truck yesterday, and don’t need any more slop for a week now with the thaw coming. We reshuffle for after the 11th-12th.

Yup, I sent him the picture of the wolf with the lady’s head in his mouth…that did it.

Cuz 60 hour NAMS are so accurate . But ya, not expecting anything either.

That’s basically a 4 week window…and at peak climo for SNE that Cosgrove is predicting. He didn’t do too well last year with his ideas if I remember correctly? Or maybe I’m mistaken?

My thought was we’d be in the midst of the thaw at that point, and perhaps whatever it is that’s coming after might be better modeled. Maybe it would take even longer than that.

Absolutely. And, It’s a marriage of sorts is what a veteran MET once told me. I think that analogy is a perfect example.

Both can work in New England. Some huge storms here with both. -PNA you don’t want it dipping down in Mexico though …you don’t want it to severe.

Luke, c’mon man, I know you think it’s funny, and it is at times. But when do you stop the constant ribbing? If you’re remotely being serious…I’d give it at least 3-4 days before we really know for sure which way it’s leaning. But whatever.

Well at the moment we don’t..so I agree. Just saying.

I think we gotta give it more time…conflicting signals—-equal uncertainty at the moment.

Bottom line…everything is in flux. Gotta give it a little more time to see which way it all wants to lean.

Down your way has been quite good…absolutely no complaints for your area.

So the +TNH looks to have a slight SE Ridge there in that graphic. And lower heights in central and SE Canada, instead of the lower heights over the east in the +PNA. Am I understanding it correctly?

Is +TNH the same thing as +PNA?

Hey, No Fangs or push back here …couldn’t agree more. I’ll call a turf and turd when I think it. At 12.5” on the season to date, average is about 50” here(give or take a couple in either direction), as of now normal snowfall is easily attainable with the large amount of time/vast majority of the season still left(and peak snow climo still in front of us). But if we go into the end of January, and I’m not above where I am now by a good 12-15” inches, normal season snowfall is toast. Agreed.

For sure. Very wintry out there now, and has been for the holiday season too. Looks, feels and seems like it should for late December, and now for the very start of January in a lot of places.

Couldn’t agree more Don…With everything you said. January thaws are 100% a part of our climatology here in SNE…it’s pretty much guaranteed a short relaxation occurs in January at some point. And wall to wall is super rare as you point out. I mean even the record and epic season of 95-96, had all the snow incinerated away in mid January, and then we picked it right back up where we started shortly after that. Long way to go here…85-90% of the season in front of us yet.

Excellent post Paul.

I was also thinking about that, and in New England this is spot on. Let’s roll the dice.

For sure Don. I absolutely agree with that. But I am speaking for this current season/current month, and those pieces are not missing at the moment.,right now writing off a whole month is stupid banter plain and simple. I mean, even BAM weather points out that SPV forecasts are not very skillful/accurate, and that was a forecast on an Op run at 15 days away…certainly low skill there; which is why he uses the phrase, “ a Bit of risk to the idea of a 1/12 flip to colder weather.” That 15 day Op run could be on to something, or if could be like most Op runs at 15 days, and be junk. For sure, have to see where that goes. But of course I’d imagine, there’s the idea too, would that even be coupled to the troposphere if that indeed comes to fruition?

Absolutely agreed. That BAM weather is very good…as I just said in my post, January could end up not being ver good. Or it could be just fine. But we can’t know that at this moment. He says just that. He gives the risks, and says gotta see what happens the next 5 days or so. Good post.