LakeEffectKing

Snowing at about 2" per hour in Caz.

73 Degrees here and Cazenovia with partly Sunny skies. Semi not looking for to 1 to 3" of snow on Monday, lol!!

Yeah...would be nice to end winter on a bang!

Check out the New England forum. There is your max pain!!!

Many of the mesoscale models last night indicated it would lift north of Watertown for a bit ahead of the shortwave.... and a couple of them didn't have the band sweet completely through. They have it reoriented over Southern Oswego Onondaga and into Madison counties

2.5" here in Cazenovia since the flip at 5:45am....moderate snow, back edge about 1 to 1.5 hours away.

Maybe... but ....you can mark my words if you want, but I think you're in prime location. As stated earlier, I think most of the models are a bit too far north with the main band. There's something about a multi late band connection that seems to drive it further south over Lake Ontario verses what the models depict.

The tremendous in flow into the bands warrants the blizzard warnings... it looks like they will be shifting around bit... so even if you're not completely inside the band, blizzard conditions will exist. I think it's quite warranted.

With regards to the LE band off Ontario, it is my experience that if we do in fact have upper lakes connection, many models tend to place the band a bit too far north. Though trivial to some, I'd slide the heaviest amounts south by 10-15 miles to include central/N. Oswego Co. (and the northern half of Oneida Co.) The Tug hill area of S. Lewis Co. will, of course, be hit hard as well, as the band broadens inland/upslope. Areas like Parish, Mexico, Camden, IMO, will/should be included in the 2-3' contour. Could see some thundersnow as we progress into Thurs. night/Friday morning. Wolfie/swva will get clobbered.

I think this is going to be "your" event Wolfie…..finally!!!

6" on the dot in Cazenovia.

Well I can Say that and 2007, I received 40 inches in 8 hours in Parish... during which time I had several hours of 8 inches per hour.... And near the end of that time frame the snow was settling at about 1.5 inces per hour.

Hang tough!!! It is a great area to experience winter's love!! Lived up in Parish my whole life....and we had our share of "down" years....but seeing 7+"/hr. and many 40+" events is well worth the few years that are "down".

Three and a half inches of slop in Cazenovia. Air seems super moist so I'm wondering if we'll get a surprise with the frontal passage later.

From BGM: NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 655 AM Update... Things really coming together early this morning, with snow line already reaching Syracuse-Cortland-Ithaca-Corning and edging eastward, and the surface low bombing/cloud tops cooling. Tweaks made to forecast to account for more incoming guidance, continues the trend of being more robust with this system. Confidence is even higher now, for a few locations in the heaviest axis to exceed a foot of snow.

IMO, this will be an overperformer for most of CNY....I think 12+" for most areas and some lollies of a foot and a half...maybe 20", with most falling in a 8-12 hour period.

I think the main issue has always been how much qpf was going to fall as ZR/IP and the ratios early on. I'm in Cazenovia now, and we are icing up fast! 06z RGEM just coming in, and seems to want to turn over to SN+ a bit earlier than previous runs, for most of CNY.

Hey everyone. Haven't been posting a ton, lots of life going on. This event looks great for most of Upstate.... my largest concern for big snow totals is if there is a ton of convection to the east of the storm track... will it rob some of the moisture being thrown back into the frontogenical forcing?....

S+ in Caz right now.

Moderate snow here in my new home (new wife) in Cazenovia. Ground covered....A ping every 20 seconds.

For all the abuse the NAM takes, it has seemed to always be a great thing to see when lead times shorten, but qpf increases dramatically as the event approaches

Not surprising....you're directly under the convergence zone/line....the prime spot!!!

I posted this a quite awhile back....as a visual aid:

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction. (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

Thundersnow reported by Channel 9 Syracuse, around Adams Center, around 5:15am. Barnes Corners must be getting walloped with 3-5" rates, I'd presume.... The band will settle a few more miles south, then shift north after 12-14z.....then slowly back south (a bit further into central Oswego Co. by late evening/ overnight.)...and then contract back to the lake by Friday morning. I think 3+ feet, 5 miles either side of a line from Adams Center to Montague, is very likely.