This is definitely what happened; one of my close weather buddies lives on western LI and he was basically shut out on most models until NAM started the northern trend. He went from expecting 2-4" to 1-2 feet in the last few days leading up to the storm.
Trends up top are really all I care about, happy with what’s transpired today for the most part. We can deal with precip shield and surface lows when the time comes. Now we need euro.
That's interesting. One thing I noticed about this sleet was that the pellets were particularly huge...probably the biggest sleet pellets I can remember. I wonder if this contributed to the "low" ratio in this storm.
I mean the GFS was keeping us 90% snow for the last storm basically right into game time, so if it doesn't trend east it might just be flat out wrong again.