Kaner88
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Everything posted by Kaner88
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Total 00z HRRR snows.
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00z HRRR also delivering some killer lake-effect snow to Cook County, spots of nearly 20" with the run not over yet. A true weenie's paradise.
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Sorry, posted wrong image the first time. 00z HRRR snows through early Thursday AM. Some lighter snows still ongoing.
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Valid. My straw-grasping tendencies are winning out...
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00z HRRR will tick northwest again for Chicagoland folks...
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Will say the Canadian HP looks a couple millibars weaker & southeast HP looks a couple millibars stronger than what zero-hour RAP shows. Ultimate weenie comment, sure, but so it goes... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
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I've already reached the acceptance stage of this storm, need the RAP & company to stop their shenanigans
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We may be in nowcasting territory but the 18z NAM has a fascinating band now in place Hours 18-24 across N. MO / S. IA -ish area that the 12z didn't have before. Could lend some credence to the higher amounts north of Chicago a la the HRRR/RAP/etc. Anyways...
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Looks like the rest of the day will be spent comparing the zero-hour observed SLP charts with the zero-hour 'forecast' charts from the RAP on the SPC mesoanalysis pages, latching on to every pixel looking for a northward trend... Horrendous (and yet somewhat fond) memories of doing this same thing years ago, only to find out (surprise surprise) the most-realistic weather models were right all along
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Didn't expect the band to start out this far north (I swear that isn't a straw-grab comment)
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This got me thinking & poring over a bit of data, only to find a fascinating quirk in the data. Per Environment Canada, the GFS is, by far, the worst performer of all models in the 24-hour timeframe - even worse than the JMA (monthly RMSE over North America, 500mb GPH). ... Which seems really strange, so here's the webpage for anyone who wants to spot-check https://weather.gc.ca/verification/index_e.html
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And up we go on the rollercoaster
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Strange way to type "bump south"
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Already checked the other day, tough to find one that covers this sub.
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Waiting to hear those two magic words as the 18z ECMWF comes in... "bumped south"
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Desperate times call for desperate measures (in this case, a RAP/RGEM blend)
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I'll get an RGEM tattoo if it verifies
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Don't know if my heart can take another climb on this hellish rollercoaster
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Despite the tough model runs, point & click numbers around the Arlington Heights, IL area have 5.7" or so. Numbers were updated earlier this hour.
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Never a good sign when the 18z RGEM is your best friend
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Intriguing question, and not one that's easy to answer. For the month of December, the model was a narrow third-place in RMSE through Day 5 (behind the ECMWF and GFS), though interestingly enough by Hour 144 the UKMET actually was slightly more accurate than the ECMWF. Experts in the modeling field could answer much better than myself but from the data I see, while it hasn't taken the way of the JMA (hopelessly lost), it seems it performs best beyond Day 5.
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A Korean/ICON/GGEM consensus, though .....
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Was worried I was the only one
