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Kaner88

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Everything posted by Kaner88

  1. Kaner88
    It wouldn't be a real snowstorm threat without running the gamut of highest-quality models... I can't buy into this until the NAVGEM comes into alignment with the Korean and JMA
  2. Kaner88
    Back in Chicago for the holidays, looking forward to the landcane
  3. Kaner88
    Liking the timing for the miss south?
  4. Kaner88
    Already flew home once for a storm & look how that turned out Can't go thru this again, rooting hard for a shift away from Chicago so I don't have to stare at these wild numbers lol
  5. Kaner88
    Not sure I would even want to imagine half an inch of ice followed by 15" of snow in Chicago; city shutdown for dayz
  6. Kaner88
    LOT updates WWA & WSW text at 8:00pm. Extended WWA north into Lake County.
  7. Kaner88
    Total 00z HRRR snows.
  8. Kaner88
    00z HRRR also delivering some killer lake-effect snow to Cook County, spots of nearly 20" with the run not over yet. A true weenie's paradise.
  9. Kaner88
    Sorry, posted wrong image the first time. 00z HRRR snows through early Thursday AM. Some lighter snows still ongoing.
  10. Kaner88
    Valid. My straw-grasping tendencies are winning out...
  11. Kaner88
    00z HRRR will tick northwest again for Chicagoland folks...
  12. Kaner88
  13. Kaner88
    Will say the Canadian HP looks a couple millibars weaker & southeast HP looks a couple millibars stronger than what zero-hour RAP shows. Ultimate weenie comment, sure, but so it goes... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
  14. Kaner88
    I've already reached the acceptance stage of this storm, need the RAP & company to stop their shenanigans
  15. Kaner88
    We may be in nowcasting territory but the 18z NAM has a fascinating band now in place Hours 18-24 across N. MO / S. IA -ish area that the 12z didn't have before. Could lend some credence to the higher amounts north of Chicago a la the HRRR/RAP/etc. Anyways...
  16. Kaner88
    Looks like the rest of the day will be spent comparing the zero-hour observed SLP charts with the zero-hour 'forecast' charts from the RAP on the SPC mesoanalysis pages, latching on to every pixel looking for a northward trend... Horrendous (and yet somewhat fond) memories of doing this same thing years ago, only to find out (surprise surprise) the most-realistic weather models were right all along
  17. Kaner88
    Didn't expect the band to start out this far north (I swear that isn't a straw-grab comment)
  18. Kaner88
    This got me thinking & poring over a bit of data, only to find a fascinating quirk in the data. Per Environment Canada, the GFS is, by far, the worst performer of all models in the 24-hour timeframe - even worse than the JMA (monthly RMSE over North America, 500mb GPH). ... Which seems really strange, so here's the webpage for anyone who wants to spot-check https://weather.gc.ca/verification/index_e.html
  19. Kaner88
    And up we go on the rollercoaster
  20. Kaner88
    Strange way to type "bump south"
  21. Kaner88
    Already checked the other day, tough to find one that covers this sub.
  22. Kaner88
    Waiting to hear those two magic words as the 18z ECMWF comes in... "bumped south"
  23. Kaner88
    Desperate times call for desperate measures (in this case, a RAP/RGEM blend)
  24. Kaner88
  25. Kaner88
    I'll get an RGEM tattoo if it verifies
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