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The 4 Seasons

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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. The 4 Seasons
    He needs snow.
  2. The 4 Seasons
    The NAM had a massive shift on the 12Z run for 12/20 giving warning snowfall for CT and adv level snow back to NYC...in 0-6HR range. Which was obviously wrong and didn't happen. But inside of 6 hours was something i've never seen before. I don't trust that model at any range for any storm pretty much ever. That said im pretty much in line with what Will said. GEM settling east and EC coming NW, a track inside the BM to ACK
  3. The 4 Seasons
    I dont know what the deal is with uptons new map. looks like updated graphics but the ranges...
  4. The 4 Seasons
  5. The 4 Seasons
    i wouldn't be surprised, right now we went with 4-8 locally up to 10 which i remember is what you said yesterday, thats where we're at.
  6. The 4 Seasons
    welcome to my world, even NYC has more than me. I think we will do well this system. It was only 2 days ago, this thing was out to Bermuda and a complete whiff on almost every model, looked like a lost cause perhaps. Even the amped GEM, didnt even have a storm on 12Z Tuesday, it wasn't until 00Z it latched on to something
  7. The 4 Seasons
    thats insane. i was just looking at the big storm on Feb 13th 2024 and your area barely got 3-4" and the same with previous Jan storm. So you must have been at what like 13" for the season ish?
  8. The 4 Seasons
    jesus i didnt even pick up on that. Deleted below to not clog up thread. we figured it out..
  9. The 4 Seasons
    For a second there i thought you said southern Tolland county. that would have made more sense if you were tryin to make a joke about adding a circle and reposting it.
  10. The 4 Seasons
    It's actually pretty similar, for this range, id call that noise at the surface. Really the past 4 cycles have been pretty darn similar...being very stubborn with that far western amped track.
  11. The 4 Seasons
    GEM is coming west
  12. The 4 Seasons
    yeah gfs is probably the perfect solution so far for CT. Just beautiful. Only 10-12 runs to go
  13. The 4 Seasons
    Just finished a tri-state season to date snowfall map if anyones interested. Totals are from COOP sites, here, and the 6 climo sites. Ill probably do any update in Feb and March.
  14. The 4 Seasons
    Exactly my thoughts. Kuchera is awful and really should never be used. Sometimes it'll align with what i'm thinking or what the forecast might be but at that point it might just be confirmation bias saying the Kuchera was good this time or its good for "x" event.
  15. The 4 Seasons
    18Z GEM? We pullin' out models from the woodwork with this one
  16. The 4 Seasons
    MOS #s
  17. The 4 Seasons
    Comparing the 12z nam to the rgem was pretty hilarious. Nam doesn't even have a clue, esp at clown range
  18. The 4 Seasons
    So the Max Temp in Profile option in bufkit is just Kuchera? And then theres Cobb05 and Cobb11 which i still dont know which is the better to use and what the difference is.
  19. The 4 Seasons
    Safe to say the GEFS is by far the best run yet. A very obvious trend NW each run. Yesterday it had almost 0 members giving SNE any QPF, its not like there was even a spread. As far as i know the GEM was the only model really amped yesterday. Edit: to add the 500mb trend on the GEFS.
  20. The 4 Seasons
    Maybe 16-17 as well but I think the MA got screwed that season. 09-10 was def the ultimate Mid Atlantic winter, that was their 14-15
  21. The 4 Seasons
    Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom?
  22. The 4 Seasons
    is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet. I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"?
  23. The 4 Seasons
    very good, thanks. Yeah thats a COOP site right under you. Southwick. I'm not super familiar with all the towns in Ma as there is like 300 but im getting way more familiar with them doing these maps
  24. The 4 Seasons
    Have you seen my snowfall to date map? The answer is, yes. And after the last 3 seasons the answer is definitely yes. Took a look at the GEFS and its not much of a help, similar to the OP. Gotta feeling EC will follow the UK/GFS for 12Z. GEM seems really out there.
  25. The 4 Seasons
    Season snowfall to date ending Jan 13th 2025. I'll probably do another update in a month in Feb then again in Mar as these are very time consuming. If anyone has anything they want to add or change let me know. I used data from here (new england snow page), COOP, CoCoRahs and the 5 climo sites. 24-25 snowfall maps so far and seasonal snowfall https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-24-25
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