The 4 Seasons

thats sick, very impressive considering its just wet here and we are very close

an inch in orange?? It rained here for a little while then some flurries non accumulating light snow

NAM is such a piece of dog shit. Worst model why i even bother looking at it, i dont know yea cuts back qpf over 60% around us in one run this close in, pretty hilarious

Shame all the good stuff with this will be happening over night, if we pop another Nemo or 2011 out of this id love to see that during the day esp with any lightning and 4"+/hr rates, chances are always low for that but still possible given how insanely dynamic this thing. It's ok we got our near-whiteout daytime 1-3"/hr storm already for the season

i feel you and I'm just having a discussion because I'm curious how people feel about this. I consider it all part of the "storm" from 500 to the sfc so if the same thing happens on the back side a day later from the ULL energy swinging through I'd count that as well. On the flip side i would count this on the front end. For example Feb 1-3rd 2021, the main part of the storm ended around or just before midnight on the 1st but the ULL parked there for a couple days and we got scattered snow showers/squalls that produced additional snowfall and that was counted. SeymourSnow got an additional 1.5" ish nearly 24-36hrs after the main part ended and that pushed him from 16.5 up to 18. I feel like the COOP and climate sites would add it to the final storm total. It's just personal preference i guess. This is another factor that contributes to highly varying snow totals in large long duration storms, along with clearing every 6hrs or greater. I'm curious what @dendrite thinks about this, should you add this mornings light snow to the overall storm total? Looking at cocorahs there's some towns that reported a few tenths up to a half inch this morning at 7AM.

the main sfc low that we will see begin developing today, no. But its part of the main overall system affecting us and i would count anything that fell overnight and this morning part of this storm. you can see the ULL parked over the great lakes just looking at the radar yes

definitely. one cycle is never a trend and it wasnt even the whole suite. anyway the ECMWF did awful this storm not only was it the last to catch on (not including the AI) but then it decided to go back east for one run and was like "nah i wanna go back OTS i like it there" but then got bullied back west.

nvm, u said just as i post that map, the GFS comes out east then the euro and you said something about feeling nauseous, the blip E runs last night

guess you weren't too worried about those 15-25 amounts

OKX AFD is historic and weenied out

congrats, is it ok i steal your snow and get 20-25" so we're even at the end of the storm?

quite a remarkable AFD. Never seen them mention 3 feet amounts other than the storm we don't talk about here

OKX is now forecasting a top 10 all timer for NYC. This 20" amount would be tied with Boxing Day at #7.

33 and light rain. About 2-3" snow depth, wish we coulda went into this on Feb 1 with that storm and 15" depth but its all good at least weve had continuous pack for a month

2+ feet at 10:1 will work

Never seen over 17ish... Feb 2001 March 2001 and Feb 2021 was the biggest both were around 16-17", rest i missed out of the state

2011 or 2013 coming? Either way I hope to see the first 20 burger in my life, we hope. I'll be satisfied with anything over a foot especially considering where we were 3 days ago

Hole Lee Shit New BOX/OKX maps. Blizzard warnings expanded. We're gonna get whacked

1e ' '

Hanbury and Darfford seem low.

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It's amazing to see this whole forum lit up with excitement and fully nudity for the second time this season It's been a horrific 3 years or more for some, we deserved it

First and hopefully final call. Anything major changes will issue an update tomorrow AM. Went with 1-2 feet region wide, lesser amounts farther NW. Locally higher amounts 2-3 feet possible highlight in text for near Monmouth/Ocean and SE MA Ply/Bristol

We do, uh, have a rather big storm on our hands... First call and hopefully the final. Obviously sided with the more aggressive guidance with a general 1-2 feet across the area, lesser amounts in NW MA. Highlighted potential for 2+ feet in SE MA and central NJ around Monmouth/Ocean where models are hitting those areas hard. The track, development and intensity of this storm closely resembles Feb 2013 and 2006, these were also storms showing up on CIPS analogs frequently so they were used as a guide. Think this has the potential to produce 2-3 feet in some of the more intense banding. We're only 30-36hrs away now so i didn't want to have to update this just to increase it and feel mostly confident in verifying. Likely a historic, record breaking storm for some.

the funny thing no one knows really how big or serious this storm is or even talking about it that much. Compared to Jan 25-26th, there was so much hype and news coverage. Obviously it was a much bigger storm overall that was visibly trackable across the US while this hasn't even developed yet. Not to mention it affected NM to ME. Just seeing the difference is pretty incredible but it makes sense.