The 4 Seasons

This X100. If the public sees a dusting by tomorrow night theres gonna be pitch forks, have to hammer the long duration AND light snow aspect of it over 30hrs to really hit that home.

not knee jerking, adjusting. 5-10 is a bit too high at the moment for any guidance. And this could bust either way, especially if that WAA snows push farther north than current advertised, then add the 2nd part..

I dont hate that look on the 21Z rap, bumped up a bit from 15Z actually.

This one definitely has higher bust potential than your average storm. We're going to trim back a bit but not that much.. Radar..

yea thats what ive been told overall the one on top is great. The one on the bottom is just easier on the eyes to read and get an overall idea of whats going on. Actually that one, just speaking for my location exactly is spot on and it usually is for some reason.

Snow depth going into the event... We still have a 4-6" depth around these parts in death valley

Thank you i appreciate it. Sometimes i wonder if anyone really cares about those kind of maps...like STD snowfall totals for the current year, or all the seasonal maps ive done for the past 5-6 years so any feedback or hearing that people like it makes me want to keep doing it. We're always going to snowfall/ice fx for the business/website etc but the other ones like the STD snowfall map are just for fun. And yeah its very time consuming especially gathering the data and drawing the gradient colors. The snowfall verification maps, the ones i do after a snowfall ususally take 3-4 hours each, sometimes more when its a big double digit storm and theres 100s of reports. And dont worry you will fill in that sucker hole...while we move on to the 50-60 range

Yeah GFS16 is very paltry compared to the GFS. As far as qpf goes the GFS took a big slice off and GFS16 nudged up slightly. Ill be very intteresed to see how it does overall with this system as well compared to the GFS. IMO GFS16 has been great this season and ive been using it heavily in fxing...when its available.

if youve been keeping track of your seasonal i will be happy to add it into the map as we go, it will help with the accuracy the more reports i can get. Im at 42.5 so 6 would put me at 48.5, just under 50

I agree. If it doesn't bust of course. Another 6" would put me at about 50". Which is way above average (assuming a 30" avg). But not as high as 14-15 or 17-18 which we in the 60s. The forecast is just whats a major pita, such a ugly strung out disaster of a look.

Advisories for all. 5-9" in fairfield though, havent seen one of those in years.

interesting i just saw you went 5-10 for most of CT like we did. It's a really tough call right now and what to do, probably wait till the rest of the 18Z suite is out before a final call.

Advisories up for BOX, long duration 33 hour span for 3-7"

i feel the same, 6" is 6" to me. I really dont care if it takes 6 hours or 24 hours. The only thing with the super light snow/long duration that worries me this time of year is the white rain factor. A lot of it seems to be focused at night now, asides from the NAM. The bulk of what falls on the HRRR is after dark and before dawn on friday. Not to mention sfc temps will be in the 20s on Thursday for most.

almost verbatim, thats creepy

NAM coming back down to earth and is starting to align with other globals for the front end but HR45-48 looks worlds different than 12Z, really trying to get part 2 goin...but its not enough for CT

ALY is converting watches to advisories...3-5 for litchfield, which, at this time seems reasonable over a long duration.

If you're strung out, its time for some Narcan™

Damn that was fast from 15-20 to 0.0 in a blink of an eye

sign me up for 1.00 inch of liquid. Well see, could be that or could be the tale of the never ending S trend until Cape May is praying for flurries.

i think he was being cute with "12z" as in "noon-z" when the model actually comes out...noon thirty. i like it tho, gonna start using noonZ lol

15-20?

U were just postin the muthafukkas..whats-a-matta

about the euro or the storm in general? i kinda have the same sentiments if its about the 18Z EC..