Tekken_Guy

What's happening on Thursday that's going to keep the region from being above normal?

No. It looks like the warm weather is gone for good after this week.

What does this mean temperature-wise?

The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event. Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday.

October’s been pretty normal temperature-wise beyond the first two days and the 7th.

One last hot day before fall kicks in tomorrow. Are there any more heat comebacks on the horizon, or is summer gone for good after today?

The forecast seems to have shifted. There is a consensus that the system will almost certainly come on Tuesday. When and how much, is still in question. The GFS shows a day of light rain as the system remains well to our north, but we’re still on the edge. The Euro shows a more direct hit.

On the next rain forecast: On Saturday evening (Eastern), there will be two rain systems, one over Montana and the Dakotas, and the other over Colorado and Arizona, which will be moving toward each other. There are two scenarios that could happen: Scenario 1: The two systems fuse together into a powerful storm over Nebraska and South Dakota early Monday morning. It will cross over the Midwest on Monday and reach us by Tuesday. Scenario 2: The two systems stay away from each other. The Arizona/Colorado system eventually reaches us on Wednesday.

Big wet day forecast for Tues. 8/13. About 0.4 inches of rain on that day. This is not a random prediction as it is being supported by 4 of 7 models at this point. Not sure whether or not this is a prediction I can be confident in. It’s still 7 days in advance and I’m having a hard time agreeing with this prediction.

Updated forecasts Monday: Still looking nice and dry. Tuesday: The models seem to be coming into agreement here that there will be some rain on Tuesday. The GFS shows light showers spread out over several hours, the Euro has a heavier but shorter lived storm. Ultimately the two both come out to about a quarter-inch of rain. Wednesday: Still likely to be the wettest day of next week. The timing is still up in the air. It’s midday storms on the Euro and a late night rain on the GFS. The Euro is much wetter on this than the GFS.

Forecast for next week: Monday will be a gorgeous sunny day. Wednesday looks wet and icky. Tuesday is still a toss up although the models have begun trending towards the wet side today. Still too early for a definitive forecast on Thursday or Friday.

Is this what gave us the year without a summer in 2009? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR It looks like we have a shot for some 90s next Wednesday and Thursday.