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Everything posted by audioguy3107

  1. Not counting on the wedge is a losing bet 100 out of 100 times. I've followed severe weather setups in Georgia for almost 40 years and there is one thing that you can always count on. The wedge. It ruined the severe setup during last years mod/high risk day and has done so every single time in our areas history. The only time we can get significant (that's the important word.....we can always have run of the mill severe weather) severe setups is when we are firmly in the warm sector...think Palm Sunday 1994, April 1998. When I didn't see any sun today (granted I'm up in the NE corner of Gwinnett County firmly in CAD territory) I knew there was absolutely nothing to worry about. As soon as the Jacksonville Alabama storm crossed over the border, it was game over.
  2. Gonna be interesting in about an hour.....if these super cells maintain their rotation they’re going to be going over some very densely populated areas west of Atlanta. The overall clusters are only about 2 counties away from Marietta and the western suburbs.
  3. The Jacksonville AL tornado is one of the better correlation coefficients signatures I’ve seen. Likely a large possibly violent TOG.
  4. Check out this really nice satellite image from SPC, you can clearly see the orientation of the warm front, the developing low pressure and a sweet gravity wave over the western Gulf of Mexico.
  5. I do think you're right in this instance, although here in Gwinnett we're socked in with 59 degrees and misty conditions. The WAA is pretty potent in this case, but we've all seen this before here in Georgia with the North Georgia storm shield alive and kicking. Over along the western Alabama border counties it's a whole different story. I'd be especially concerned in the Floyd, Polk, Haralson and Paulding county areas. - Buck
  6. So really curious about this one, I've lived in Atlanta for my whole life and have seen these types of setups a million times with sometimes much better "enviornments" than yesterday, especially being this early in the season. What did you see that made this cold push so much more potent than usual? I mean, cold air pushing down from the NW hardly if ever makes it over the appalachians in time, we can never seem to get appreciable snowfall with some type of arctic air in place or a nice dry CAD. What on earth happened differently than normal to make this work for the Georgia people?
  7. Still can't get over the HRRR.......has the secondary band pivot right over the Atlanta metro and has us in the snow until close to 11 AM on Saturday morning.....just incredible if it pans out this way.
  8. This is really incredible, I cannot remember a storm like this that overperformed to the high side......I’m as big a snow weenie as the rest and even I wasn’t really all too excited about this event. I expected the typical splatting rain with a changeover late tonight giving maybe a dusting. We’ve all seen this before here a million times. The postmortem on this storm will be interesting especially considering how early in the year it is.
  9. The HRRR still has it snowing in the Atlanta metro until late tomorrow morning, this even possible around here? Amazing
  10. Man, how many times has a marginal setup performed like this on the cold side for us here in north Georgia? Still pouring outside right now in Flowery Branch. After seeing how marginal the temps were the last two days I would’ve bet a lot of money we would have gotten a cold rain for most of the day.
  11. Pretty interesting, per the SPC mesoanalysis Page, the 925 and 850 lines have pushed fairly well south and east of the metro Atlanta area as the morning has worn on. That in and of itself is shocking with this type of setup.....that line usually stays north of this area in this type of storm.
  12. Man, lost in all the wind reports here is just how lucky we are here with the high pressure to our north with cooler air in place since under a normal early September pattern, we would be in prime territory for a tropical system Tornado outbreak. Under a similar track, if it was close to 80 degrees or so with any kind of breaks in the clouds, we would have most likely seen numerous tornado touchdowns today.
  13. I don't know, I'm beginning to wonder.....I'm 2 hours southwest of you and nothing here but light wind to speak of other than a gentle breeze every now and then.
  14. If you look at the last several frames of the AVN satellite loop, The CDO is literally exploding in size as well, it contracted quite a bit over the last 12 hours, but seems to be rapidly expanding in size as well as intensity. That didn't take long.
  15. I know, I was here, I guess it depends on what you're definition of disaster is. Disaster to me is Hurricane Katrina, Moore, Oklahoma, Harvey, Sandy, et. al. I don't think the metro Atlanta community considers Opal a disaster, heck, I'd be willing to bet if you asked 100 people if they remember Hurricane Opal's remnants and what happened, most couldn't. Anyhoo, what we should be paying attention to here in N. Georgia is how far north Irma can make it before going on shore......the more west, the less time for weakening as it moves into our area. If you take a look at NHC's 11 AM track, it's not inconceivable that Irma could stay over the Gulf until she's north of Tampa!
  16. That's robust alright. Are there any past cases where the GFS and EURO pressure drops have verified to any sort of this magnitude?
  17. I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster. There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster? C'mon.
  18. Pretty much nothing wrong with what I posted......I agree that no one should let there guard down and I did not post anything absolute......that's what the words "may" and "probably" mean. It's just amazing to me that with all the model runs and what looked like could have been we're down to watching it trek across the northern coast of Cuba which is having a bit more of an impact than the NHC and others thought (me included).
  19. NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps?
  20. The eye is, true, but way too much of the circulation is over land. It needs to pull away fast to have any chance to take off again. It needs a few good north wobbles. It'll be interesting what the 8 AM advisory shows.
  21. Yep, Cuba strikes again. The eye is still going to be scraping the coast in the next 6 hours or so as well......I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 storm by the time she eventually pulls away. With increasing shear forecast, chances of a major making landfall are going down. Intensification is certainly possible but not a guarantee at this point. Once the inner core is damaged like this, it's a rough go.
  22. This is a very crucial next couple of hours which may end up defining the outcome of Irma. You can see on the satellite presentation that she's really beginning to get her act together and strengthen, the IR presentation and eye is about the best it's looked in the last 24 hours. If a NW movement can commence without weakening due to Cuba, i see no reason that Irma can't make a run at a solid cat 5 (175 - 185 mph)....the environment is just too rich. If Irma makes it further inland than the coast and stays there for 6 to 12 hours, then forget about it, I would seriously doubt she could recover. It's amazing that of all the pages, model watching, recon missions etc, it really may come down to the next 3 to 6 hours and whether she stays over the coast.
  23. Good grief, I know it's just a wobble but Irma seems to have actually tracked a tiny bit west southwest on the last couple of frames.