paulythegun

18z RGEX XR looks pretty great. Hold onto hope folks!

The 557ww model also out to sea, though it looks abit closer to the coast than 12z UM, ACCESS-G, and GEOS-5. Reminds me more of the look on 12z ARPEGE

GEOS-5 (12z) also basically out to sea, joining the ACCESS-G, SPIRE, UM(mmmmmmmmmmmm) models

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

There are now models being posted that no one even knew existed. Dire times

hisorically, this has been typical during the ukmet/ecmwf lag between noon and 1pm. unfortunately, CRAS has been discontinued.

Ummmm.....the UM model is in. Also inland, like ACCESS-G. 

ACCESS-G is WAYYY inland. TOSS!

ARPEGE looking good!

Helpful link for everyone:

The spire model looks like the euro too

slight NW trend, more intense

The TPV lobe is way further north on this run (compared to the bad 12z euro run). Good!

Generally speaking, you don't want to see the confluence setup OVER WASHINGTON DC

Control at 132, this looks like a major storm developing


.

wow, even the SPIRE model is moving our way.

00z: 

12z

4 hours ago, paulythegun said:

RE: January 16th:

 

reverse jinxed it

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago.  That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard.  We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again.  

I remember these well!  before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers.

RE: January 16th:

uh oh!

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Growing up in southwestern and then central Ohio I will confirm for you that the same excruciating misses on the margins occurs for midwest cutters as it does for us. So many times in the mid-1980s forecast 6-10 inch snows for me just east of Columbus would end up two counties north. We just don't notice for the reasons you said.

 

As for whether the presence of cutters in the longer term is more stable, maybe? But there is a huge difference in a cutter at 7 days that is modeled through north dakota and at game time ended up in eastern Ohio - but we don't follow those swings that closely either

TL/DR - WxUSAF is right. 

great points all. i just wrote all those wobbles off as "different cows being hit by rain or snow" but now i remember that there are cities in the midwest

Next weekend's cutter has been well modeled for a while. GFS remarkably consistent. I wonder if it's just easier to model inland storm systems? No messy coastal transfer/redevelopment? Or if there's something else about this setup that's easier for models to resolve? I suppose this just doesn't seem very complex. Just a vort orbiting around a well defined trough.

Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out?

This seems extreme

January is ROCKIN'!!!

38F and light sleet and rain at the base of dc’s mighty Mount Hamilton

The 925mb hole setting up over Roanoke