paulythegun

Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. 

4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Been awhile...

I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.

 

Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. 

ok this is just funny now.

CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continent

29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Too early to start panicking about next fall?

you beat me to this. whenever someone complains about a long range map, gotta up the ante with some CFS

Model trend momentum is accelerating toward some extreme snowmap colors

Models were accelerating in another direction earlier today. But - as we all learned in meteorology class - model trend momentum is moving toward snow now.

So because I’m a hobbyist, my friends sometimes ask me about the outlook for snow, as they did tonight.

I rely on the long range threads here to some extent to get a feel. Plus common sense, reading trusted voices on twitter, and my own access to ensembles.

Tonight, when posed with the question about our snow chances, I told a story. I told them about how there’s this weather forum where people discuss the long range forecasts for signs of potential snowstorms. And i told them that for the last few years, they had to create a separate thread called “The Panic Room” where people who loved snow could go to have a meltdown without disrupting the discussion.

They got a kick out of that.

Anybody know the history of this kind of west meandering cut-off low in late December? Feels extremely rare, but I don’t really know.

I suppose we’ve had tons of big low pressure systems delivering warm temps in dc and blizzards in the Midwest around Christmas time. Remember Santabomb? But I can’t remember a cutoff low that drifted.

PANIC

https://x.com/hotwxexpert/status/1740134509008281952

Days 15-20 looking like the best window for a pattern change that leads to snow.

Don’t worry folks. An SSW is on the way (maybe?) to disrupt the PV (maybe?), provoking sustained, upper latitude blocking (maybe?) in a location that leads to an arctic outbreak in North America (maybe?)

Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981).  Subtle differences can tilt this either way. 

90th percentile snow analog for funsies

A SSW will produce a cold air outbreak somewhere in the northern hemisphere. That’s our best shot for a late February pattern change that leads to anomalously cold coastal rain storms in March

Here’s the thing about these warminista trolls….they imply that for us to get any “real” wintery period we first need a -epo/pan that dumps arctic cross polar air into the west and central US which lays down expansive snow cover, then after that we need a -nao to develop and the epo ridge to transition into a pna ridge shifting the cold east and locking it under the nao. Then if we are lucky and that happens as the mjo is slowly progressing into 8/1/2 but not too strongly and not too weak either and it has to stall and spend like a month in phase 8/1 and then we need the Stj to also be active and then if the SPV has a SSW and the tPV couples and with a lot of luck and timing and if no solar flare comes along to ruin it we have a slim chance at snow! 
 
Now here’s the thing…going on the last 7 years they’ve been mostly right. Yea we’ve lucked into random snows here and there but we haven’t really had a truly snowy period in there. Nothing like Jan/Feb 1996, Jan 2000, 2003, 2009/10, 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016.  Since then the best we can do is mostly one off fluke snows in an otherwise crap pattern. 
 
This year is a good test. We finally have favorable pac forcing, along with a favorable qbo and solar.  But who knows maybe they’re right and it is THAT hard to get real winter anymore. I doubt it. Even I’m not ready to go there. But if they are right, then it pointless. The things they imply need to happen to get snow…are just ridiculous and not worth tracking if true. But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias. It is that hard to get snow down there now. They were on the edge of being realistically able to get snow often even 50 years ago. It’s like a unicorn and leprechaun sighting for them mow. Maybe he is just expressing his frustration. 

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?
 
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp
 
https://x.com/spahn711/status/1736881737928433857?s=46&t=K9uUZ2ybIyt0zkGgj22-dA

Dec. 17 folks

2 hours ago, stormy said:

I'm not looking that "hard" as the parameters will likely be completely different tomorrow.  But in reality, the model is arguing against itself by painting snow at +3C.

If a model has 15 members out of 50 with a coastal storm with a nice track 300 hours out and 35 members with random stuff (like cutters), then the MEAN temperature is going to be worse than useless. It's going to be misleading! even if the temps were colder, it wouldn't mean much of anything because that could just relate to the timing of the cutter and associated cold front passage. think about 50 separate storms and how they average out on an ensemble map. it's like if someone said, "Well, the ensemble only has a 1000mb mean low pressure reading off the coast 300 hours out, that's not a very strong coastal storm, it's saying it's going to be a weak storm." No it's not! that's the average across a spatial domain!

#NEverForget the victims of El Nino: sailors boiled alive in the east pacific

10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Does that upper level feature rotating through Monday night/early Tuesday on the gfs have any potential?  Looks lame on the surface but not too bad on the upper level panels.

yeah looks potent on 500mb. upslope snow in the blue ridge, maybe some inverted trough snow inland in new england when the surface low actually develops (too late for us). 

Benny Hill Music (6z gfs, hours 132-270)

The latest euro weeklies suggest that January will either look like the euro weeklies or that their 0.001% added value will not prove useful beyond random dart throwing and climo

DC's snow drought started when the trump sons came to town and continued when hunter biden showed up. Is it possible that DC's snow is just being snorted away by presidential failsons?