paulythegun

April 1st Ice Storm!!!!

BOOM!

22/3F with violent, 2dBz virga downtown DC.

SREF shifts south AGAIN. And takes all its plumes with it.

Any websites/tools out there that let you compare live radar to forecasted track?


.

SREF shifted NW a bit and juiced the precip!!!! Let’s do this! PLUMES ARE LEADING THE WAY!!!

HOLD ON! Sampling the storm!!!

Less spread than 06z, but still plenty. A tick faster than 06z.

While we wait for 12z GEOS-5, to come in, here’s 0z GEOS-5 for comparison (out to sea)

The…(??) MOGREPS-G not fully on board yet

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river.  lol

They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA.  

If it was measured at the top of the DC's Mighty Mount Hamilton then that could have pushed the totals up. I live downslope from that beast so my snow totals are always diminished

https://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=27611

While we wait to extrapolate the 18z 12k NAM, I'm pleased to inform you that the ACCESS-G model is on board for 8"+ regionwide.

Yeah. The site is getting ridiculous at this point. But of course we live in the battle zone area for snow. Some win some lose in the Mid Atlantic. That is the way the game works here.  I will add people from PA really arent in our region anyways.....so yeah.

I don't think this is done trending north. Today's storm was way north of the models. Jan 6th had places in central PA get decent accumulations when models said they'd get nothing. What hasn't trended north this year?

Adding this to my folder of Great Snowmaps in History

FWIW, SREF (which was very tightly packed around 0-0.2" of QPF yesterday) now has a bunch of juicier solutions ranging .06" to 0.57" of QPF for DCA. 

WPC 95th percentile though...not seeing those higher end solutions. Big sad face for this map.

Special Weather Statement Warning for the entire region. Please move your cars until the expiration of the statement.

Checking 18z GFS. Much stronger. 972MB low off the SC coast with 0.4" in QPF already falling in D---

just kidding, another nothing to see here, more of the same, an inch or two regionwide, maybe. It WAS a bit wetter than 12z for Richmond/Tidewater though.

the way this is trending (looking at the last 8 GFS runs), by game time we'll have a Great Lakes Bomb Cyclone