paulythegun

GFS slowly creeping north toward the rest of the guidance, which is slowly creeping south.

Most important 18z EPS Control run in history rolling out soon.

UH OH

Through 102, the low is 4mb stronger on the 18z compared to 12z

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nah. Couldn’t sleep the night before. But sometimes on weekdays I’m on U. Enjoying life is hard. 

Solly's is a great place to watch snow fall (if it's accumulating on streets). They have those big bay windows with 180 degree views (added after a cabby had a seizure and crashed into the place in I think 2005).

28 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is anyone else watching the nam to extrapolate out to hour 120?

12z NAM 84hr is way north of 6z GFS. more amped too. 

Don't worry! The extended GFS/ECMWF models still look like El Nino analogs like they have all winter!

On 2/6/2024 at 3:57 PM, paulythegun said:

24 hours later..................................

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run. 

12z GFS was a Panic Room CLASSIC. Just amazing stuff.

I agree with others though that the takeaway should be largely positive here. We're seeing multiple strong waves ride under us with plenty of moisture. 

This made me chuckle. wonderful!

The Insult Each Other Room

Long range looks really good. There's no reason to be posting in here.

But if I WERE going to post, I'd say, "March looks like at least 3 HECS rain storms"

Not in the cemetery!

Day 15-20 looks like a period of interest in terms of starting to track March snow puddles after the February precipitation drought.

Can somebody tell me the exact moment when the wave breaks? I'm very excited for the wave to break. Also, when does the snow pattern make landfall? Have we sampled it yet? What about 06z/18z? Do we need more balloons?

For Feb 6th, 72hr into the 12z Euro, seeing some good confluence.....over the bahamas

ECMWF keeps hope alive for the 5th/6th (I guess). Slower, a bit north. 00z Euro had these two features (circled) crash down and seemingly whisk whole thing out to sea. 12z euro doesn't' have them. 

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance.  I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan.

I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies.  One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise.  They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms.

NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.

Yeah I've always had this (noob) question of whether a higher resolution model could "trick itself" by aggressively identifying noise (smaller features) and failing to smooth those out. But I guess that's just a convective feedback loop?

4 out of 20 members of CMC Ens have snow reaching here Feb. 5/6. Two have a liquid explosion. Therefore, 10% chance of a liquid explosion. That's how this works.

The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!)