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paulythegun

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Posts posted by paulythegun

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

    One of the first cases of me understanding model bias was when I was told that the NAVGEM had an apparent "suppression" bias. This was back in 2017, but in every single instance where an image of the model has been posted, the storm is depicted more AMPED than other guidance. Is this me misremembering, or is this not a continuous occurrence? 

    navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.thumb.png.4e212b761e2a50798cbf5ce6855361dc.png

    NAVGEM was upgraded (NAVGEM 2.0) in 2020. Model resolution improved from 31km to 19km. Not sure what the bias is, but it's a drastically different model. 

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    March Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
     

    Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate.  Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months.  Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. 
     

    BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard.  Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big.  And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months. 

    This made me chuckle:

     Trending Up. La Nina Conditions for Winter 2016-2017 - WeatherNation

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season. 

    Ha that makes total sense. What good is blocking if there's no snowpack in Canada yet?

    Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

    gfs, whether correct or not, has been pretty consistent for almost 2 days now.  every time i look at it, it's just about the same track...a bit too far north.

     Aside from a few wobbles, pretty consistent

    gfs_z500a_namer_fh72_trend.gif

    • Like 1

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Started reading this forum again today after DCA surpassed climo snow amounts (BARELY) on eps for 3 straight days. And I haven’t been around much, but I feel like there was more bullying of weenies in the past. mocking them helped create the space for a serious discussion of the upcoming storm threats by experts and hobbyists with smart questions. And it helped the weenies participate with good posts, because they feared being mocked. Anyway! Best not to overthink these things. Meta forum discussions suck. But this still is a smart forum, and a bit of heavy-handed moderation in the substantive topics might not hurt!

     

     

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