paulythegun

Euro

There are many fine plumes...on both sides

FOLKS,,,,

the 18z ARPEGE is LIT

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For all the weenies who want a closer look 

worth noting that for areas 30+ miles SW of DC, a 1-2" of that is from Friday's weak system. As for DC - that's all on the backend of the weekend system. 

too funny not to share

Good trend on ICON. Less amped. Stronger high extends without interruption

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. 

the "cold chasing" portion is basically an anafront, right? Had some nice jet entrance zone interaction during the March 5, 2015 event too. Sadly not seeing much of that in this one but i guess something to watch. 

ECMWF holds onto the snow pack for the fall-line and areas NW through the arrival of Saturday's storm. One thing we don't get often in this area is snow on snow so it'll be interesting to see how that impacts the initial CAD front end event as well as the ultimate trajectory of the low. 

There have been quite a few studies on the southern edge of snow cover extent influencing the placement of the baroclinic zone:  Here's one:

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.688.9620&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Quote

"Large-scale modeling studies have hinted that areas near the edge of the snow extent support enhanced baroclinicity due to differences in surface albedo and moisture fluxes. In this study, we investigated the relationship between snow cover extent and MLC trajectories across North America using objectively analyzed mid-latitude storm trajectories and snow cover extent from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for 1979 to 2010. We developed a high-resolution MLC database from sealevel pressure minima that are tracked through subsequent three hour time steps and we developed a simple algorithm that identified the southern edge of the snow cover extent. We find a robust enhanced frequency of MLCs in a region 50-350 km south of the snow cover extent"

The extent to which models can deal with marginal snowpack is unknown to me. I do know that ECMWF currently has a bias toward holding on to snowpack too long...see here:

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues

Just measured about 12" on GFS

Flakes flying by sideways like Phillip Rivers' throwing motion

Roads giving way like a chargers punt returner

It's been so long since I've seen snow...i'd forgotten that it was white. I thought it was purple with blue around the edges

Icon fringes the northern folks

Who's got the 6z EPS?   

 

trying not to be too bantery, but this really gives you a picture. here's the vort, hour 64-140 moving from Oklahoma across North Carolina, as depicted on ICON/Euro/etc

Icon looking a bit less strung out/smushed at 12z. The end result isn't much better. 

Vigorous southern slider pounds NC then moves off the coast before northern energy phases with it, trough turns negative, tracks north to the benchmark.

Is that even possible? Lol (because something that pounds Raleigh and pounds north...would have to pound us too, right? Whereas just Raleigh and a whiff here...would be a whiff north as well!)

Starting to see some clustering

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I saw some talk earlier about the Euro Control HECS. Here it is in ANSI: 

ok i should probably be shot for this

How bout some Happy Hour NAM to lighten the mood?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

1 hour ago, Ji said:

thats about the 5th time this storm ive seen someone post an old map...come on guys

yeah i'm deeply ashamed of doing that. amateur hour. Anyway, here's the latest CRAS

FOLKS