paulythegun

Started reading this forum again today after DCA surpassed climo snow amounts (BARELY) on eps for 3 straight days. And I haven’t been around much, but I feel like there was more bullying of weenies in the past. mocking them helped create the space for a serious discussion of the upcoming storm threats by experts and hobbyists with smart questions. And it helped the weenies participate with good posts, because they feared being mocked. Anyway! Best not to overthink these things. Meta forum discussions suck. But this still is a smart forum, and a bit of heavy-handed moderation in the substantive topics might not hurt!

Get that bad euro taste out of your mouth, friends!

from last night's EPS, but worth it

love that people are getting excited about a snowmap that's right around climo

GEFS analog for day 12-14: cold/dry

Just returned from driving around and car temp went from 10 down to 3 back up to 11 in 1 mile distance..quite the inversion 

Liking that west-based -NAO 

My favorite thing about this model's panels is how the color scale makes things look way more potent. That's 3-4mm for the district. Unfortunately, the snow ratio is very low on this model - like less than 1 to 1", due to the metric system

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There were a few folks using 1958 as an analogue for this winter. I think @psuhoffman may have? I'm curious if you see any similarities with this season irt a possible culmination of events where we could finally achieve some favorable HL very late in the season such as March of that year? I know nobody can make specific comments based on speculation of where the pattern goes. Just curious if this season and the looks we might be seeing could indicate or signal something large towards the end? Are chances increased this year or not really known at this point?

I guess I'm asking because I can feel a buildup towards  maybe finally getting a HL block at the right time during seasonal transition late Feb-mid March or so. But who knows. I know one thing....I'm not relying on LR ens to predict HL blocking still.

Here's February 1958:

Here's CFS February 2019 for reference

Snow puddles starting to get extreme in dc. A coating of puddle on wet surfaces, not to mention the roads, which are giving way to puddling

UPDATE: I can confirm that the water in downtown dc has begun to move into organized pools that can be differentiated from each other. Classic puddle signature.

Puking drizzle in downtown dc. Frigid wet bulb of 34F. Accumulating on all surfaces

Folks,,,

I’m here to tell you that in Davis, WV, in my cabin along the northwestern (up)slope of of some pathetic east coast mountain, it snows 90% of all winter hours including when the sky is almost 75% blue. All it takes is a cloud. A cloud makes snow, as long as it’s a tiny bit grey. It’s fantastic

hey uhhh can we talk about that hudson bay low and how awesome it's going to look on GOES?

WPC update on Mon/Tues:

1530 UTC Update...

During days 6-7 (Mon-Tue), the most significant model differences continue with
respect to the degree of phasing between northern/southern stream
shortwave energy across the eastern U.S., and the implications for
the track and timing of a potential low pressure system off the
East Coast. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS showed very
little in the way of phasing and thus a highly progressive system
- a stark change from previous runs for the ECMWF in particular.
The CMC, on the other hand, held onto a highly phased and
amplified solution. A look at ensemble members does seem to
suggest a solution at least somewhat less progressive than shown
by the 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS, with perhaps even a few more members
joining this idea over the past couple ensemble cycles. Thus, the
WPC forecast is not near as progressive as the ECMWF/GFS, and
resembles something closer to the ECENS/GEFS ensemble means, which
comprised the majority of the forecast blend during days 6-7.

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's the million dollar question...Why does snow have to be emotional for some? I would love for a psychological opinion on this, lol I have to wonder whether it's misplaced dreaming or anticipation for something "bigger" or more exciting, than the routine...It provides a change to the environment...creating another "world" if you will...And so, if a model shows that it could snow, now you hope for that escape, that newness...and when it doesn't happen, there's a disappointment because you don't get to enter that "world" that time, and have to go on with the hum-drum. I guess eventually, once the season is over and you know meaningful snow is impossible outside of winter, expectations/anticipations get placed elsewhere. It's a strange psychology...but one I would love to have a better handle on!

Not to get too far down that rabbit hole, but I suspect for most in this sub-forum, the love of snow (and strong feelings about it) are tied to early childhood when two things happened: (1) school was cancelled by it and (2) we had a blast outside in it. And on the flip side, when snow forecasts failed, we felt deep disappointment at having to go to school. For many of us, that's our lasting and formative memory of snow forecasts - both positive and negative. It all flows from that. So we have an emotional response. 

There are probably also some smaller factors as well. One is the way in which snow completely changes the landscape around our homes and communities - everything we consider familiar and mundane (because we see it day after day after day) is covered in white. And beyond those aesthetic changes, there are different sounds and smell different smells. A bustling city or suburb becomes calm and serene. And all of those things trigger your childhood memories and nostalgia. 

All eps members agree on at least 0.5 in negative ao accumulation