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Posts posted by chubbs

  1. 15 hours ago, NEOH said:

    Read an article that the Greenland ice sheet gained 7 Gigatons of mass in just one day  — the largest daily gain ever recorded during the summer.



    8/30 and 8/31 at Freya glacier in eastern Greenland roughly 3000'.  The interesting weather continues next week with a big melt event to kick off the accumulation season.



    • Like 1
  2. On 3/27/2022 at 2:38 AM, LibertyBell said:

    there is a real necessity to get nations like China and India onboard, China going back to coal is a real detriment not only because of the vast number of people that live there, but also because it also affects that entire region.  They have a goal of net zero by 2060 I believe, but in the mean time they have been opening up more coal plants.  Nuclear would be a really good option here, but in the current political climate, people seem to be even more wary of nuclear.


    India's power generation mix. They are "onboard" with renewables, but growing too fast to reduce fossil fuel use. Note that use factor for fossil is much higher than renewables.


  3. 18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    This is troubling ..

    But it is also indirectly - I believe - related to the same aspects that have decoupled the ENSO states from the circulation modes during recent winters. 

    The energy observation is a different metric.. But that increasing is consistent with decoupling in the 'intuitive' sense - just probably needs the geophysical proof/mathematics

    But the decoupling thing has been intriguing in its own rights.  This season spent some 5 .. 6 weeks with only weakly identifiable La Nina circulation foot-print.   This type of decoupling has taken place during both warm(cool) ENSO events, with increasing frequency, spanning the last 15 or so years. 

    Prior to the past few months, haven't noticed any de-coupling of global temperature from enso.

  4. 5 hours ago, csnavywx said:



    Yikes at the new CERES data. +1.5W/m2 imbalance last year. +1.2 W/m2 trend gives about +0.9C of equilibrium warming, if my back of the envelope calculation is correct. We've already probably blown +2C and at this rate of emissions, I wouldn't be shocked to see a sizeable uptick in the rate of warming this decade.

    Matches up with re-analysis data indicating a roughly 9-month warming period now, despite the nina. Wondering if this is recovery from the Australian fire aerosol. In any case, the next nino is going to find an atmosphere that can hold more heat than 2016.


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  5. Made an attempt to check how the recent past has tracked the paper findings. Below is 2011-2021 against a 1981-2010 normal, i.e the last ten years vs the previous 30.  The AMOC signal can be seen but the cooling center is SE of Greenland and S of Iceland and heights have tended to rise recently near Greenland. Also visible is broad global warming, and a nina signal in the Pacific. The nina signal is not surprising considering enso decade trends since 1980. Guess one message is be careful analyzing regional circulation trends.


  6. 9 hours ago, etudiant said:

    I hope your happy vision comes about, but don't see how it can without much pain.

    Wind and solar are intermittent, they need backup, which implies massive capacity(expensive) on standby, in addition to the green energy conversion costs.

    Simultaneously, cutting Russian oil really squeezes global fuel production, implying shortages, which generate higher prices.

    So the consumer gets hit with higher priced gas and more costly electricity during the transition, which can't be quick.

    If nuclear were not such a swamp of massive delays and cost overruns, this could be its moment to shine, but the still available workforce that is qualified for these projects is small and mostly old, so not a plausible option.

    There is going to be pain. That's the nature of fossil fuels, particularly oil. A commodity based on a resource that depletes. New field/wells are constantly needed to maintain current production. Now we are chasing oil sands, deep offshore, fracking etc. These are all expensive and need ongoing large investment just to maintain current production. Fracking is particularly problematic from a boom/bust standpoint,  because individual wells deplete rapidly.  Our current pain started in the pandemic when oil prices crashed, causing investment to slow. US oil production dropped giving OPEC more pricing power. At that point an oil shortage and price increase was inevitable. Putin is taking advantage of the commodity cycle just like Middle East oil barons did 50 years ago. Nothing new.

    Too late to impact this crisis, but we could minimize the next. The resource base for renewables is larger than fossil fuels and more evenly distributed. Solar and wind are mass produced in automated factories. They can ramp quickly, doubling every 2-4 years recently.  Renewables and EV have finally reached the scale where one or two more doublings will have a big impact in reducing fossil fuel demand. Yes, a transition will take time, money and innovation. Target the bad actors from a geopolitical, economic and climate standpoint first.

    A transition is going to happen anyway, as renewable, EV +storage economics are outpacing fossil/combustion.  Just a matter of whether its fast enough and targeted properly to minimize future geopolitical, economic, and/or climate pain.

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  7. As the satellite sea level record lengthens it becomes easier to see acceleration. Nina can slow and even briefly reverse sea level rise - 2010/11 a good example. No slowdown visible in this nina, though

    Screenshot 2022-03-02 at 08-45-34 Data acces Aviso+.png

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  8. On 2/12/2022 at 3:46 PM, csnavywx said:

    Yep, most of that additional heat will go into the oceanic flywheel for later. Just didn't expect that level of additional forcing so quickly. I expect we'll feel some of that on the next Nino, for instance.

    There is a double whammy as aerosol emissions decrease in China and other developing countries, which also increases forcing.  The good news:  methane emission reductions would have a rapid impact due short lifetime.  We should be using methane reductions to offset the forcing boost from reduced aerosols.

  9. Wind generation in Texas is soaring as a winter storm whips the state, adding an unexpected surge of electric supply as the bitter cold drives up demand on the state’s power grid. Wind farms were producing about 17.5 gigawatts at 9:55 a.m. local time, 85% higher than the day-ahead forecast, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot as the grid operator is known. Wind is accounting for about 30% of the grid’s electricity supply. A gigawatt is enough to power about 200,000 Texas homes.


    • Like 1
  10. Its not the heat, its the humidity.

    Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.



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  11. 12 hours ago, bdgwx said:

    All of the data is; at least all of the data I track. The 13 month moving average of the composite is now close to the trendline of +0.187 C/decade as we close out 2021.



    Not good when back-to-back moderate ninas barely get you to the trendline, after 40+ years of warming.

    • Like 1
  12. 4 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

    There are many notable feedbacks coming online mainly associated with snowcover and sea ice. Namely the Hadley Cell circulation is not allowing the ocean surface to cool off.

    People say ocean SSTa is going bonkers due to rising forcing but it's actually two-fold.

    This is not a popular outlook because people want to believe that this horse can still be reigned in. The AGW menace is free to torment humanity for god knows how long no matter what we do.

    You are covering a lot of bases. Not aware of any new feedbacks. Snow/ice feedback is well understood. You may be confusing impacts, tipping points and feedbacks. Can you provide references? 

    As far as the future. Warming is directly related to CO2 emissions. The more we emit the more we warm. Irreversible for tens of thousands of year, unless we remove CO2 from the atmosphere, which won't be cheap or easy. So yes we will be dealing with AGW for a long time, but the amount of warming is up to us. We are far from helpless, shortsighted yes, helpless no.

    • Weenie 1
  13. 2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

    For sure bro. I am somewhat taken back by how many other positive feedbacks are coming online.

    The feedbacks impacting temperature aren't changing significantly.  Higher global temperature or ocean heat content generally means higher forcing from greenhouse gases.

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