Lookout
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I wonder if the intense precip rates could offset that warming somewhat or delay it? Speaking of those intense rates, most of the models are now showing enough heavy precip/cooling for a several window of very heavy snow or sleet across ne ga...maybe as far south as athens, before going back to sleet/freezing rain (mainly north of 85 until after 09z) overnight tonight as the warm nose aloft moves in. (just for reference it's all snow/subfreezing at 06z but warms to plus 3c at 750mb on the fv3 near cornelia at 09z). There does appear to be some dynamical cooling at play here with very intense precip rates and cooling occuring at the same time. ...in fact the 06z run it keeps it as sleet for areas like gainesville to hartwell for the duration of the storm after 03z. Would be quite the accumulation of it if that happens. i sure envy the upstate/western nc. The rates are going to be insane.
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If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you. It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow it shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday.
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this run of the euro sure gives hope that there could be quite a bit more snow/sleet in northeast ga than before. Now has precip changing over to all snow for a while down to places like gainesville and hartwell with a mix here before the warm nose aloft moves through. That snow would could help drop temps to freezing earlier by several hours which could mean more freezing rain, again especially along and north of gainesville to hartwell but that's hard to say yet. It's only going to one more small downward temp adjustment aloft to make potentially change things quite a bit...maybe even south of 85. Damn shame though that the warm nose is still there above 850mb....but given precip rates, makes me wonder if sleet will be more expansive. That said, this should be quite a hit for NEGA, rabun county, and those areas.
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It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip.
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yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.
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I was quite surprised the nam's profiles were dismissed as i'm sure many were because of that. Interesting decision. i love how he has athens being marked in elbert county instead of where it's really at, clarke.
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not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 0z canadian does the same thing btw.
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yeah precip redevelops with it too...
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Even for the gfs, that's pretty bad. That's more like the old avn type of busts.
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well the 0z gfs holds in showing much warmer temps. If our suspicions are correct, this could be an epic bust on it's way out the door. Nam is up to 8 degrees colder than the gfs over north ga.
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The 0z nam is a little slower than the 18z run in dropping temps but it happens very quick when it does. Interestingly the nam is showing the core of the cold air at 950mb instead of 925mb this run. I wouldn't be surprised to see it speed up by a number of hours again since i suspect the nam, nor any model, will be able to accurately get down the quick cool down over the western carolinas where the whole atmosphere is quite a bit colder/drier. Also, nam is showing quite a bit of mid level cooling and given the cold low levels i suspect there could be quite a bit of sleet over northeast ga....especially considering precip rates. But watch levels between 850mb and 700mb...warm nose there could screw the upstate's snow for a little while. Nam, not surprising is more bullish with it than the gfs.
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This is pretty crazy......925mb winds of 50 to 55 knot winds across damming regions of ga/sc by sunday 12z. 40 knot winds at 950mb. 10 meter 20 knots. It's Some serious wedging lol
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pretty fun looking run right into next week....although not much fun about damaging ice....although i'm hopeful that sleet might save the day for areas north of athens while snow could pile up north of 85 if this run is to be believed. very wet run though...nearly 3 inches of liquid close to here and approaching 3 inches in western nc.
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yeah this run finally looks like it bought a clue. There have been times the models have shown some cooling of the mid levels over the heart of the cad regions and it's something to watch for as we get closer...could mean more snow/sleet further south than expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see snow/sleet mixing here at times. What i wouldn't give for just 1 or 2 more degrees cooling aloft.
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I've been conflicted about this due to the lack of low surface dewpoints and the fact that most of our ice/winter storms don't have a long period of just plain rain before hand. (instead just a few hours as we wetbulb down) But every other major indicator i look for is there. Some of it is just general things i have noticed over the years...like it normally ices here if the 0c 850mb isotherm starts south of the nc/sc border, Not only does it do that but it touches ne ga as well. 850s never get above a few degrees above freezing, very deep east/northeasterly flow...all the way up to at least 875mb (which is higher than average)......indeed even the 850mb level has that wedge look which is an indicator of a really good one, tight pressure gradient, and strong boundary layer winds.... latest nam is showing 925mb winds at an impressive 45 to 50 knot across north ga by hour 84. The good news for north of 85 is that it might get could enough to make for more sleet than freezing rain because of the cold low levels and mid level temps actually cooling at times. It would be nice if that sleet makes it this far south. Earlier runs of the euro had it very close to doing that but i fear the odds are more likely it's freezing rain for the most part here unless 900 to 975mb temps trend colder or mid levels are a bit cooler.
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after a ho hum run this morning, this run is pretty scary looking for northeast ga in terms of ice potential. 925mb temps plummet by sat evening....on the order -4 to 5c... with surface temps dropping below freezing by midnight or so,,,even down to the northeast burbs of atlanta with a lot of precip left to go.
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lol...amen. Mine too...probably my top one. I understand it if someone is a noob but what's frustrating is you see people who have been around long enough to know better do it.
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I'd be pretty excited if i was in the upstate because i think it's a given right now that most of the precip will be of the winter variety in some form or fashion. It's ok, i wasn't directing that at you but that being said just a little less banter/one liners and taking the gfs at face value with cad would probably be better. As i said above, i'd be happy if i was where you were. Of course my standards are a lot lower probably.
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enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave.
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The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see. Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas. If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash.
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I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here.
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i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 , nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours.
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yes it's the 84 hour nam but fwiw, looks like precip would start as snow or snow/sleet/rain mix by the time it gets to the savannah river sat morning. Nam has temps into the mid to upper 30s, dewpoints in the upper 20s..with even colder/drier air and ne flow off the surface. Nam sure looks a lot more promising than the gfs still.
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I know everyone is focused on snow but even the fv3 has surface temps near or below freezing for a lot of the storm in the northern upstate. And that is not taking into consideration it's warm bias with cad. I think the icing potential in the upstate is quite high.
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That is the general rule of thumb, especially with respectable dewpoint depressions. Which again is the one ingredient that's been missing with this system south of nc on the models. Even so, it's almost a given that the models will be at least 1 to 3 degrees too warm even without much dry air to work with. Sometimes it's more though, like the last cad we had where models across the board were showing temps bottoming out in ne ga from 38 in the far north to as high as 40 and 41 here right up until it happened....in reality the temps dropped as low as 33/34 at cornelia and gainesville and 36 here. Much of that was thanks to some colder air just off the surface but it was with dewpoint depressions of just a few degrees. Regardless, it was quite a miss for the models. I've been watching this...and it would have ramifications obviously. I'ts not just at the surface though. the new 12z nam is much colder/drier in the low levels in general. Huge differences at 925mb between the nam and gfs over the carolinas. It's the long range nam so we should throw in the usual disclaimers but this is a big and notable difference and if right, the gfs surface temps are likely quite off in cad areas. Note the nam has northerly/northeasterly flow being established quite a bit sooner than the gfs over the carolinas/ga. Up to 7c difference over eastern sc. Also, Interesting to note gfs has winds quite high in the boundary layer...with surface winds up to 15 to 20 knots and winds up to 925mb winds increasing to 35 to 40 knots across ne ga/upstate by late saturday afternoon which is pretty impressive. Given the isobars, it's not surprising. One would think caa would be rather strong. We will see if the nam is on to something. nam first/gfs second
