Lookout

Even though the worst of the storms just missed here, still got hit pretty hard with 40 mph gusts and about 0.35 of rain in a few minutes time. Wasn't as strong as the other day but happening at night makes it seem worse. Considering the daytime heating being added to the mix as opposed to getting hit at 2 in the morning, would expect it could get quite breezy with some of these. I always worry about storms coming in from the north or northwest here since there is a lot of open space in that direction which allows the wind to get quite high.

Just got the power back on after getting blasted. Number of trees down or damaged around the area after easily 50 to 60 mph winds and white out conditions. Was a bit nerve racking for a while. Not surprisingly ffc didnt issue a warning when it damn well should have...meanwhile gsp was on the ball as usual and smartly issued a warning for elbert county. Picked up another inch of rain.

Just had a heavy downpour with only 30 to 35dbz....so these showers/storms are efficient rain producers. Nam and rap showing pws maybe as high as 2.15 over the next 48 hours. Considering what the radar looks like now with quite a bit of training already, one can easily see how flash flooding could quickly become a problem over north ga into western nc. Already 1 to 4 inches of rain with a lot of back building to the south/southwest in the atlanta/gainesvlle/athens region. Finally got a good storm/rain yesterday...around 2 inches in 30 minutes. The rain rates were very high so there was a lot of runoff which was something to see after being so bone dry for so long...but what was even more amazing about it was seeing how fast the ground soaked it up. Not sure i've ever seen so much water disappear so fast. So that will help for a little while.

Same here...was generally between 97 to 99 but never 100 so euro was a few degrees too warm....but certainly that was bad enough. Soooooo glad that hellish pattern finally has changed. Its bone dry here...indeed on the line of moderate drought....seems likely most get enough rain to change the course over the next few weeks...thankfully avoiding conditions getting worse. Hate to think what this summer would be like if we maintained that pattern.

Yep...not a lot to say when it's hot and dry day after day. This much heat this early is depressing as hell. The only positive is that if its going to be hot it might as well be record setting. Although ffc isn't forecasting 100 here, I expect I will. Euro has been showing 100 here for days....last night run is still showing 100 here from sat through Thursday. Ridiculous.

As a fan of cosmology/astronomy since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole.

nam holds firm on it's much wetter solution. As high as 1.25 to 1.50 down near greenwood...just shy of an inch here liquid....0.85 to 0.90

Unless there is a last minute nw shift, I would think any significant snowfall would be south of 85, not north due to lack of overall precip..not to mention that some will be needed to cool surface temps/column. Models seem pretty unanimous that the best liquid totals and best chances are south of 85. Hard to believe, especially since surface temps start off so warm...in the low to mid 40s. In fact the nam shows temps as warm as 46/47 as late as 06z . Using a sounding in the heart of the heaviest area of progged snow on the nam in the upstate, At 06z, Wetbulb temps at the surface start off only as low as around 37 and wetbulb zero heights are between 925 and 950mb. So we are talking about needing some serious cooling to get some snow....much less significant accumulation. Gfs/fv3 are more reasonable showing temps in the upper 30s to low 40s at 06z. For my neck of the woods, there isn't much difference temp wise at the surface or aloft than sc so i would expect it's possible to see some flakes at some point here too if these projections are correct but i'm skeptical of actual accumulations..outside of a brief dusting or something. That said, i'm personally rooting for the fv3 Seeing any snow at all in april would be pretty ridiculous though. Looks pretty doubtful. Temps look way too warm aloft. Besides temps aloft, the further one east goes the more they will be fighting solar insolation and it's brutal this time of year. I'm skeptical most has a chance to get that much...i'm thinking at most an inch....maybe 2 is the general safe bet for max totals. Nam seems out to lunch with it's excessive liquid totals with most models only showing half that much or even less and some will be needed to cool surface temps too. The irony though that we could get snow, much less accumulation, in freaking april after we couldn't get a damn thing all winter. Someone has a sense of humor.

flurries just started here.

yep, also think the same could happen here in ga..especially between columbus to macon north/south of atlanta/athens. Models have consistently shown it cold enough on the northern fridge/back edge for snow. Surface temps are initially an issue the further east you go but temps fall to near freezing early south of atlanta so a light dusting isn't out of the question in these areas. It's the long range hrrr so take it with a grain of salt but latest says maybe a little more than just a dusting in a tiny area..several hours of light snow between atlanta and macon with temps at or below freezing and a narrow band of more than 0.10 liquid. Temps start out already near freezing when it begins too. Would be nice if the models have been underestimating precip all along. The other day where we had a long line of showers/rain training over the same area for quite a distance (across the entire state) and not a single model picked up on it, including all the high resolution ones (didn't even show up on the simulated composite radar). Was thinking at the time, why can't this ever happen when it's cold. Would be nice if they missed this one by that much. this would keep the winter for being a total shutout for a lot of folks.

gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths.

I'm watching this for my self to see if i can get a handful of flakes if i'm lucky as the trend has been for the precip to be a little further north here in ga. But knowing the way this winter has gone, the more painful runs that keep the band of precip just a county or two to the south will probably be the ones that verify. (euro) Icon has come a little further north this morning though, as well as the wrf suite. Probably my last shot at seeing anything this year unless something strange happens. If i manage to get more than a few minutes of rain/snow mix at 36 then this will be the highlight of the winter here.

The trend has been to slow precip arrival and allow temps to get well into the 40s tuesday across nc so the odds of it over performing to me have gone down imo unless that trend reverses which there is still time to do so. Frustrating to say the least though As it seems with every single wedge this year there is one piece missing or something isn't timed right.....and with this one it's once again lack of dry/cold enough surface air. This despite a well place high and a respectably strong one...in the upper 1030s. Normally such a high with even "average" cold air means it's game on for cad country... but at the surface there just isn't much cold air to work with. It's pretty reflective of how bad this winter has been that even with high of that strength and position that we still can't even get something minor south of nc, with the exception of the higher elevations. That said, It does seem somewhat likely to see at least a little freezing rain in the higher elevations (above 1000 feet elevation) from ne ga and the usual prime areas in far nw sc/western nc based on subfreezing temps just off the surface on pretty much every model. mix to rain here would feel like hitting the lottery...

Winter has sucked so bad here that a 33 degree rain could be considered a win.

i'd honestly be a little surprised if north carolina doesn't get something frozen or freezing over the next 10 days. Looks like this hot garbage of a winter will continue for ga though unless the models are faster with the highs building into the mid atlantic/northeast or we see things shift south..which lol...we know that won't happen.

Yeah all the "certainty" and general bullish calls is certainly apart of why. I'm a realist and know what to actually expect...which in general is worst case scenario but one would think given all the bullish calls, it wouldn't have been this bad. Was wondering if it was just me but as I said this the other day, i don't think i've ever seen so many fictional cad/winter events in the long range than i have this year.....yet none of them have actually materialized which is quite remarkable. That has helped in adding to my frustration of this year too. It's nothing new to see fantasy storms never materialize but damn....You would think that at least ONE of the 100 that have been shown the past two months would actually verify. Not even worth it, zero support on the 18z gefs..at least in terms of temps. There was actually more on the 12z run but still not a lot.

Was going to post this,...it's absolutely crazy to see snow down to 6200 feet there.

I laughed Pathetic but predictable. Only hope i have of seeing a thing seems to be sunday if enough precip develops since temps/wetbulbs certainly start cold enough....but precip looks so marginal/light we won't be able to take advantage of it. At least it will likely keep temps down all day and it will feel like winter rather than freaking may. What a sad excuse of a winter where a raw mid to upper 30s day is looked at as some type of victory. I'm not sure i've ever seen so many fantasy storms on the gfs that never actually materialize than this year. Meanwhile, it's freaking 81 here right now. I just can't get over how horrible the winter outlooks have been. Normally when they bust they don't bother me because as i said the other day i never put any stock in them but this year it's really bugged me for some reason.

Not much. Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however, I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them. I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it.

speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone.

gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did.

if the 12z gfs is right with highs in the teens up your way, it would be impressive if it wasn't the coldest day lol. Even the downslope screwzone might stay below freezing. for several runs now the gfs has been showing dewpoints that if came to pass would surely be some of the lowest we have ever seen.....and to see it over such a large area is even more impressive. Although WAA commences after this, Have to believe the gfs is too warm though with morning lows the next day with high pressure becoming situated directly over head in the carolinas thursday night/friday morning with dewpoints still in the negative teens.

yep, everything was always dependent on enough precip falling to take advantage and unfortunately it was just bone dry. Story of the winter so far south of nc...just can't get anything to come together right. Still this was a fascinating day here with the warm front and something happened that is pretty rare...the warm front moved through but then pushed back slightly south. Normally of course once it comes through it keeps going or at least doesn't come back. Athens observations bear it out...the warm front moved just north of here and then came back south. Temps went from the mid 40s to the upper 60s and damn near 70 only to fall back into the low to mid 50s the past few hours. Meanwhile just to the south it's still in the mid to upper 60s. A few miles to the north temps mostly stayed in the 40s. Indeed at one point, one observation site just a couple of miles away from athens airport was 10 degrees warmer. Personally, cad/wedges aren't just about ice/snow so this is pretty neat to me. Here is athens observations this afternoon. 23 Jan 5:51 pm 53 44 71 ENE 9 10.00 OVC046 29.02 1012.0 29.88 23 Jan 4:51 pm 57 46 67 ENE 10 10.00 OVC049 29.04 1012.8 29.90 23 Jan 3:51 pm 69 49 49 S 9 10.00 FEW049,BKN090 29.07 1013.6 29.93 23 Jan 2:51 pm 68 49 50 S 9G20 10.00 BKN046,BKN090 29.11 1015.0 29.97 23 Jan 1:51 pm 60 48 64 NE 10 10.00 FEW037 29.16 1016.9 30.03 23 Jan 12:51 pm 54 44 69 ENE 10 10.00 FEW030 29.23 1019.4 30.10 55 39 23 Jan 12:33 pm 53 43 69 NE 8 10.00 SCT013 29.25 30.12 23 Jan 12:16 pm 52 43 71 ENE 10 10.00 BKN010,OVC015 29.28 30.15 23 Jan 11:51 am 51 43 74 E 13 10.00 OVC008 29.29 1021.8 30.16 23 Jan 10:51 am 46 38 73 ENE 6 10.00 OVC009 29.34 1023.5 30.21 23 Jan 9:51 am 42 34 73 E 10 10.00 OVC008 29.36 1024.1 30.23 23 Jan 9:27 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC009 29.39 30.26 23 Jan 8:51 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC010 29.39 1025.2 30.26 23 Jan 8:41 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC010 29.39 30.26 Yep, if i had not gone to gainesville the past few years , i wouldn't have seen a thing. Been a pretty bad winter weather drought around these parts.

Although i've never been optimistic about this system and still don't believe we get much of anything, i'd rather they be showing it squashed than to the north. Even though it's not looking good at the moment, The lack of run to run consistency should be enough to not rule it or anything out right now.

It's the southeast....we always find ways to screw things up or finding ways for warm air to rule the day. meh....the next run will probably be dry and 50s lol. Euro has been all over the place in the medium and long range of late.