ers-wxman1

Sometimes I just have a hunch. Can’t explain it.

It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here?

Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality.

Same setup, not much to feel better about.

Do you have research and results in hand to back this up scientifically?

There was no ill will intended at all.

I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts.

Its reality.

Could see 3-6/4-8 for Leesburg but no way are we seeing 12-18 digital fantasy. Take it, D.C. gets C-1 then heavy rain with temps in the 40s.

Wet snow with temps in the mid 30s, hardly much to get excited about if you are not in those favored areas.

Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there.

If you are in Winchester you’ll have no worries regardless.

A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border, north of I-70 heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer in toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days.

Time to bust out the shorts and tank tops. You’ll have to go to Mount Washington to find meaningful snow in that pattern.

Winter Fail 2020

That’s all she wrote folks. This Met is officially out for the 2020 winter. Just hoping the spring won’t be ruined when the NAO/AO eventually go negative.

It is likely the Mid Atlantic region will remain locked in this pattern right through February, possibly even March. Cold air will remain locked to our north with only a few brief and minor breakaways into the area, yet short lived. It’s not just this area, the Northeast, southern New England are all in the same boat. Even lake effect has been below normal. DCA may not even break 1”. Eventually the NAO/AO will come around in time to ruin our spring.

Geez Louise! This forum is even making me look like a positive person. It’s disappointing for sure, but it’s SNOW!! It falls, it sticks, it melts. Just had a good friends father rushed to the ER for 5 hour open heart surgery for aortic dissection. Nearly lost him on the table. There are greater tragedies in life.

I would certainly promote your work and try to gain some exposure for you. Thanks for all of your work on here.

The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear.

Salary starts low but you’ll get where you need to be. I started as a GS5 step 1, I’m now going into a 13 step 8. That plus all the OT with storm activations and you do very well.

I updated my post above. You and PSU would be great at WPC or CPC. The way to go for good salary/benefits is NWS/NOAA. I’ve had a wonderful 20 year career. You can move around as well. Energy firms pay more but much more stress.

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis.

Progressive pattern with no chance of locking in arctic air for any substantial amount of time, at least through the next two weeks.

00z ICON continues to hold serve for significant icing. CAD impressive.