pazzo83

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If so...man that was quick! I mean just 4 years ago at least NYC could do better (and even Boston). It feels like what may have been a gradual decline just went off a dang cliff the last 3 years! I mean prior to 2020 I don't remember perfect track middle of winter rainstorms and cutter after ccutter. Yeah we had our normal fails from Miller Bs, unlucky timing (i.e. Dec 2018) and other things...but not like this. 

Of course my view could be skewed from not knowing anything about tracking until 2014 or so, but...this feels awfully sharp to me.

i mean it's not linear - there will obviously be blockbuster storms and years when NYC crushes it.  It's just not gonna happen that often anymore.  Like some folks in that forum have been commenting, they probably peaked in the mid 2010s when they benefited from increased precip/bigger storms but temps hadn't risen to the point where they were having precip issues.  Now they've probably crossed that threshold.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Here's what I'm wondering...Have the tides already turned even for NE of us? I mean they've rained on setups they should snow on too. I asked if their climo would become what ours used to be...but if the coast is already warm this year...hasn't it already happened? I mean latitude hasn't been helping anybody up there (not sure where Boston is snow-wise)

I'm trying to figure out how much is this season and how much may be permanent...line is getting a bit blurry...

P.S. You and your "ya's"...lol

I think it's flipped for NYC and Philly.  Boston prob isn't far behind given how much closer to the coast they are.

This earthquake in southern Turkey today (Feb 6th local time) looks really really bad.

10pm here in Tenleytown: 51F (also same as DCA).

It's legit nice out.

Yikes...  looks like the lake effect machine will be running wire-to-wire for folks who've already been blasted so far this winter.

Pushing 60 now.  Sure, why not.

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Walked out side at midnight and it was30 and felt like  30 instead of 0. 

cold is much more tolerable absent a stiff wind.

With an overnight low of just 33F, DCA looks to enter another extended period of temps remaining above freezing in the heart of winter.  Unreal.

Low of 14.4F here - now up to 29F.  Actually not too bad out since the wind is light.

5 hours ago, Paleocene said:

I swear I saw a mosquito last week 

we def had some.  Hopefully this killed them off for now.

wind chill on Mt Washington approaching -110F.  I guess you'd only see something like that MAYBE in some of the highest peaks in Alaska or in Antarctica (obviously where air temps routinely get below -100F in parts), right?

5 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Easy to forget that DCA had a stretch of something close to 1,000 days without getting below 22F.. we've bottomed out below that mark 4 times so far this winter, and it looks like we're about to do it a 5th time.. yay?

yeah that is one of the more insane streaks.

Yeah the wind is brutal today.  Since it's not gonna snow, I'm glad we'll be back to early Spring in less than 48 hrs.

3 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Neither is asking if reading comprehension is hard to me. Shouldn’t matter how many posts one has to either be nice or be not nice. 

I mean you were the one who commented with the childish "oh so you're gonna delete my posts but not other ones" nonsense.  Grow up.

7 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Way to come off like an ass. I have been very appreciative of people responding to me and I haven’t said anything bad toward anyone. Cute take. 

Dude with 96 posts here - not sure if this is the approach I would use to interact with other folks on here.

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yeah that’s a legit high as temps did rise a little in the early morning hours.  I hate it when we get those cheap highs at 12:01am 

we had that kind of cheap spike as the front moved through.  This is one of those times when I am a bit colder than DCA (still at 32F).  Elevation plus a more or less uninterrupted northerly fetch here (we're the highest point around) is probably the reason.

ding ding ding

27F here in Tenley with some elevation.  Looks like DCA hit 41 around the 4-5am hour, so that streak will live on for one more day.  Obv it will end tomorrow.

35 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hold on tight to your feelings and perhaps drive in all directions near the site  and you will experience far more parkway surroundings than fully developed commercial. This is Not like true urban downtown DC around Willard or White House which is almost entirely developed commercial and macadam and concrete 

 

 

Just because there are some trees between the airport and the high rises of Crystal City, that doesn't mean it's "surrounded by parkland" and should radiate.  Sorry, that's absurd.  DCA is located in an urban area.  Do you think Central Park radiates because the station has some trees around it?

19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Are you absurdly offering that in far NW DC you do not radiate out????

I’m 5 miles north of you and have NO radiational restrictions. 

No - it's an urban area with a significant built environment.  I'm at 37F right now and DCA is at 38F.  I highly doubt that living within a few miles of the District means you radiate like someone in a rural area.

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

When the river is frozen or at 32/33 the same thing happens.  It’s also not in a River, it’s mostly surrounded by parkland with River to ne-e-se and mostly undeveloped land mass otherwise except due west.  Something known as a Parkway runs right by DCA.  There’s a reason things are called Parkways-lots of trees surrounding.

Chesapeake Bay is very deep and broad.  Potomac not. Annapolis does not have radiational issues 

lol at the idea of DCA being surrounded by parkland.  It's square in the middle of an urban area, beside a river.  Of course it doesn't radiate.  I live in upper NW a good 350+ ft above DCA, and I hardly radiate (I'm usually within 2-3F of DCA).

B/N today at DCA but still hit 40F.  lol. Obv tomorrow and Sat we will finally break our streak of >=40F  highs.

I was at Killington once at the top of one of the mountains when it was about -30F with a windchill in the -40s.  That was not fun.  The resort was shutting down lifts it was so cold.

statisticians, data scientists, etc are always dealing with very messy, problematic datasets from which they are still able to glean meaningful insight.

31 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I realize that UHI affects a relatively small portion of the earth, which is my point. What are the locations whose data is fed into this model? Are these temperatures being taken at on-the-ground sites across the word? Are they just official record stations, such as airports, etc. like we have in the US? Are current temperatures being collected with satellites? Are they being collected at the thermal vents to underwater volcanoes?

Again...I'm not doubting that warming is occurring, but there is some room to question whether temperature readings are biased warm (i.e., warmer than temps already are) in the modern day.

they are collected in a variety of ways, but even so, any sort of bias (like you suggest would come from UHI or a faulty recording sensor etc) can easily be detected and corrected via statistical methods.