yeah i mean that's what we'd expect from a slightly cold-biased model output given low position and other factors. i think the question is, on that particular model run (and we've seen this in quite a few others over the past couple of years), why - given the low position, antecedent air mass, etc - was the boundary layer so warm? What is having the model generate that as the highest probability outcome? We've seen a number of such outputs - and actual events - that should have some snow that were rain for virtually everyone. Obviously the concern here is that the base state has warmed significantly and models are starting to output scenarios - even fleeting - that reflect that. You disagree with that premise so you try to undermine any such concern. That's fine - but don't trivialize the concern.