investors seem to be somewhat buying that the war will end soon. Not seeing it - perhaps a combo of easing of passage through Hormuz plus the G7 countries releasing reserves will mitigate things somewhat, but a protracted conflict in the region is definitely bullish for commodities prices generally IMO.
these are futures contracts - so the thought is that if the Strait of Hormuz remains the way it is, the supply of oil generally will be drastically affected. Even some of the later contracts (late 2026) are getting close to $100/bbl, suggesting that investors think this will not be something acute.