anotherman

This wasn't funny in 2004

Instead of "playoffs?  PLAYOFFS?"
"Snow?  SNOW?!!??!!"

The problem at this point is we are at a "I've seen this movie before" portion of the winter.  It always shows chances for snow in the long range and then pulls the rug out as we get closer.  I'll believe it when I see it.

The problem at this point is we are at a "I've seen this movie before" portion of the winter.  It always shows chances for snow in the long range and then pulls the rug out as we get closer.  I'll believe it when I see it.

The eps kinda reminds me of Feb 93 at the end. I wouldn’t mind that repeat. You probably would. It was a constant train of storms from Feb 15 on but none were clean snow. Even up here there was a lot of mix but they each put down about 4-6” of snow/ice up here and about 1-3” towards the cities.  (kind of like that early Feb overrunning wave last year just 5 of them in a row). 
Btw a repeat of that does not mean a repeat of March 93. That storm was an extreme anomaly for that pattern. It’s why I laugh when people pull out that analog. 99% of the time with that h5 look nothing happens. 
But if we were to get a repeat of the Feb pattern and adjust it 50 miles south....we would all be happy. 

Imagine living about 2 miles away and getting almost nothing. Yeah that’ll make a season alright. Just like the March 09 storm did for our season here in Winchester.

Here's an idea.  Let's rename this thread.  It's February tomorrow and maybe it will bring us luck.  Certainly can't be any worse than it's been.

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.

eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Coffee is not the same in the morning without your 5:30 posts!

What a shocker - JB referencing March '93.

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Our climate is becoming like Raleigh, NC’s and we need to just accept that. I guess their climate is more like Augusta, GA and Augusta is more like Orlando or Tampa at this point. 

Very true.  I have been telling people I work with that this winter is like a winter in N. Carolina or Georgia.  Even though it's a reality, it's hard to accept.

Not gonna happen

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea but if we look at the pattern for the whole 15 day period that map covers...it is about "normal"  The first 7 days are god awful for snow...with some lottery ticket super phase bomb scenario being the only chance, then after that a warmup as a trough dumps into the central US initially...then it gets good day 10-15...but only 5 of the 15 days have a good pattern...the other 10 are crap...so overall that washes out to about an "average" chance of 3" and since for that period you probably get 3" about 50% of the time...that seems about right...I would say that probability fits the pattern I am looking at pretty good.   I think those probability maps have actually been about what they should be given the patterns...so not sure what all the fuss is about.  

All the fuss is caused by the fact that it won't snow.

In February 2003 I was in Mass. for a long weekend and had to stay over in Leominster and wait for the storm to pass. I’ll never forget coming home to Maryland. It was like a bomb had hit. Lanes on 695 were not plowed. Crazy stuff.

Why would anyone want things to be sugarcoated?  Optimism is good but sometimes that can lead to misinformation and false hope.  Give me the hard data any day of the week.  It's science.  There is no optimism or pessimism, only reality.

Man, that is ugly.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in...

In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions...

There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states.

Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in....

In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions...

There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states.

Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

A typical March event.....in January.

Should I bother to give a summary of the weeklies?

It's much more like a mid march storm than Jan. Slow rolling cutoff under a big upper level ridge is a spring pattern. 

That reminds me of a March storm with limited available cold air that has to “create its own cold air.” But it’s late January.....

Ping ping ping

Ping ping ping

I can report that we have a solid car topper up here in York County.