tnweathernut

Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in.  Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM

8 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

The 18z gfs got tri cities pretty good

Yeah, I noticed that.  My downslope city comment was mostly in jest, but it’s always in the back of my mind.  It’s been showing on models on and off all day.  The two things we do extremely well up here are dryslots and downslope.

It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one.  Should be fairly widespread.  This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year.  

35 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Except for the Johnson City area.  We are the Chattanooga of northeast TN.  I'm going to lobby the leaders of our city to change our name to "Downslope" City.  lol

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Funny they say travel impacts mainly in higher elevations. lol.   Temps say everywhere. 

Just trying to get everyone's attention in advance.  "mainly in the higher elevations" is a very safe phrase to use.  JMO.  lol

Phone has been ringing all day here.  About 75% of them have been to file a claim.  I need a vacation.

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

I agree with this and have mentioned it several times.  Modeling doesn't do well showing overrunning precip.  Seems they are echoing that sentiment with their last sentence.

4 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I still would feel much more comfortable with the Euro coming on board. I think the 6z Euro made steps in the right direction.

We will find out soon!

That being said I am tempering my own expectations just because we have 2 more full days before the event would start.

I don't have much confidence in it being consistent like it used to be, but I agree.  I definitely want it on board!

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It and the Euro are usually in a pretty close camp, I'm surprised it's so far on the other end of the spectrum.

Definitely perplexing.  The Euro (before their changes a while back) was easily the best model for north america at day 5-7 and it usually wasn't close.  Maybe their changes have helped their forecasting in Europe, but it's been woefully inconsistent here where we need it.  lol

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Take away the big one and the mean is still around 4 inches which is really good for that.


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I usually take away the two biggest and the two smallest and then take the average from the remaining.

Just looking at the UK model.  It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs.  Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest.

Looking like kids are likely going to miss quite a bit of school the next two weeks.  

10 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I wonder if we can finagle a clipper after this thing.

All kidding aside, i think the flow could certainly throw a clipper event this way.  In fact, I'd almost expect it following the event early next week.

At least we know the Euro ensembles would almost have to be better.  lol

Another benefit for modeling, and a reason to start centering around a general solution we can have some confidence in……….is the big wrapped up storm for tomorrow is pretty consistent among modeling now.

If we continue heading this direction…..  This could trend to a two part snow storm for some (maybe widespread). Overrunning followed by the main course.  I won’t be surprised to see an overachiever with the overrunning….  

Long fetch WSW winds will be conducive to overrunning.  Models don’t typically handle it well either.

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Charts above are how to get proper snow across the entire Tennessee Valley including southeast Tenn.

Take a break tonight for SEC basketball action. Tennessee leads off early. Georgia and Ole' Miss are both getting points at home. Kansas is on too, along with other Big 12. 

Apparently, you don't want to be a top 5 team playing this week.  1 and 2 fell yesterday.  TN getting whipped at half.    Looks like Kansas is going to have to bring home a win for the top 5 crew.  

Someone needs to start a thread for this system so we can have somewhere to track it or kill it off.......  lol

The NWS offices are talking about it, so makes sense to pull the trigger.

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. 

Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low.  It's an overrunning look.  I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure

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24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

This one feels feast or famine. It's either a major event or it's clear skies. 

Our energy is still over 4 days from being onshore and we have another system to deal with this week too. Still just warning shots but a good sign is that we have cross model support. 

I personally don't like the looks of this one especially for ETN. But really for anyone. This is one of those storms that will be a pain in the rear to track. It'll be easier to squash this into the ocean vs amp IMO. I hope I'm wrong  we have lost most support for an amped version with most of 12z a whiff besides EURO. In normal circumstances I would argue that's right where we want it (for middle and west regions). I'm taking the sit back and relax approach. Let's see what we have come Friday when it's only 2 days from being onshore.

I think until we get superstorm number two out of the way, we won't really have a good handle for what is to follow.  I also think the chances for something wintry in the week after superstorm number two is more likely than not.  JMO, will be fascinating to watch it play out.

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interestingly, both the Euro and CMC leave the door wide open for another system to follow 3-4 days later. 

The precip panels on the GEFS have also been showing another system during that time frame......... pretty consistently.

11 minutes ago, CDUB_VOL said:

I have really enjoyed these threads for the last few years. There is not a lot I can add I am just getting started in this hobby.  Carver I have seen you post these ensembles several times could you tell a novice how to read them. Thanks in advance. 

Welcome to the forum!  I'm not Carvers, but I have some time and can answer the question. Hope this helps.

Each model run generates individual ensemble members, each of which represents a slightly different possible future evolution of the weather based on small perturbations introduced into the initial conditions. By running the model at different times and with these perturbations, the GFS ensemble provides a more comprehensive picture of the potential range of future weather scenarios and their associated probabilities.

Here's how it works:

• Base model runs: The GFS model itself is run four times per day, starting at the aforementioned UTC timestamps.
• Ensemble generation: For each base model run, ensemble members are generated by introducing slight variations in the initial conditions, such as temperature, pressure, and wind speed. These variations represent the uncertainties inherent in the initial data and atmospheric processes.
• Forecast calculations: Each ensemble member then evolves independently through the model, simulating the atmosphere's future state under slightly different conditions. This creates a range of possible weather forecasts for each forecast lead time.

Therefore, when you access GFS ensemble forecasts, they represent the combined information from multiple model runs and multiple ensemble members, providing a more nuanced picture of the potential future weather than any single forecast could offer.

It's important to remember that even with the ensemble approach, weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and the range of possibilities represented by the ensemble can increase as the forecast lead time gets longer. Nevertheless, GFS ensembles are a valuable tool for meteorologists and the public alike to understand the potential range of future weather events and make informed decisions.

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Great discussion guy's ! I'm down with RSV now so, not participating much but, am checking in ever so often. Fun times upcoming ! 

Feel better soon.  We are going to need everyone at 100% rowing in the right direction to bring a snow system home...........  lol  Hope it passes quickly!

5 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow.

That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit

Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4??  lol