tnweathernut

With high ratios .15-.2 would be a nice 3-5 inch snow.  Even a glancing blow would be fairly significant for our area.  Just something to keep in mind.

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

SE shift by the Euro AI, I expect the Euro will follow.  Hopefully it can work back this way but not holding my breath.

This type of setup is more likely to whiff, IMO.  It's funny, the last system we went so far west the phase started in the 4 corners region of the southwest...............  This time we need it further west and the likely result will probably be a further east phase than is needed to snow on parts of the mid-south.

The setup reminds me of a couple of classic central and eastern Carolina snowstorms in the past.  Maybe east TN can back into a decent snow?  I'd say this one has high whiff potential, but the high end of what could happen is a high ratio super cold snow (which we rarely have any chance of seeing outside of northwest flow)

Hoping a northern stream vort makes it far enough south and then blows up in the perfect spot to grab Atlantic moisture and throw it all the way back into the southern apps seems like much less than a 10% chance……. lol

It would be nice if out of 10 ways to snow there weren’t 9 ways to be hosed, but we live in TN so we almost always go to bat with a 10% chance to thread a needle.  New England is the place where 9 of 10 ways can snow and there’s only 1 way to be hosed.  

1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

That second push into ETN at end of run was going to be laying it down heavy. 
 

We are at the timeframe where the last storm "jumped."  So to see this one jump from out to sea to an actual threat gives some legitimacy to our chances. The Google model was killer. We need to follow it haha.
 

I got burned telling some friends about the last one. This one my mouth is SHUT lol. 

I mentioned ahead of time to watch the period from the 22 to the end of the month, but only mentioned it as a period to watch…. I stayed skeptical of a big snow to my friends when the GEM threw us the warning shot of not only WAA, but massive WAA into east TN 4-5 days out.

Let’s get Holston to put together one of those trend gif’s at 500 on the euro.  You can definitely see it trending further west and deeper……. But looking at 500 there’s only so much room to go even further west 

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of wonky synoptics, but as @tnweathernutmentioned…we may be exiting the window where models lose stuff.  Seems like the GFS has something similar.   If I had to guess…that area of very BN heights is causing the disturbance.   85 had similar occurrences where very cold air masses spawned snow storms. 

What will be interesting to watch here will be the flow coming out of Canada, IMO. The current storm trended well west with the northern stream from day 7 to day 3.  This time, I think the amount of westward trend potential is likely muted.  There are some weak impulses in the southern stream, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities this storm, if real, can come west some.

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Winter isn't over.

It’s possible we whiff the winter, but it’s also possible we are just getting started.

While the looks of the last couple of days of storms having disappeared from the long range leaves a snow lover feeling like they are being let down, it is possible we are in that window of time where storms disappear for a couple of days.  
 

We just tried being in the bullseye 5-7 days out and that failed miserably here in east TN.  Let’s try the models saying all clear and see if they can be wrong that way also.  At least the cold will be such that anything that does pop up has a chance to be a snow event for the mid-south.

Prayers and well-wishes to you guys out west.  Hang in there!!

The biggest story will likely be the power losses and frigid cold that follows.  It’s unfortunate to sit here and know many in the power loss areas won’t be prepared.  With SO many outages across multiple states, it will stretch the massive resources that were called to be ready.  God bless these linemen….  

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What I looked at has generally been two waves.  The GFS has a constant stream of moisture on a few of its runs.  There is the lead out wave, and then whatever forms in Texas.

This is correct. Wave two should bring in a surge of warmth in the upper levels.  Surface in Clarksville will remain below freezing I'd think.

3 minutes ago, The unknown said:

Measured about 5 inches of sleet and snow here in Jackson Tn with it still sleeting moderately 

You guys might end up the big winner in TN.  I don't know anyone near that amount............   Congrats!!

Awesome, congrats Holston!

Enjoy it while you can out in west and middle TN.  Hope you can hold onto snow/sleet as long as possible!  Up to 32 here in the balmy part of Washington County, TN (i.e. Johnson City'ish)

11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

hoping to dodge a bullet here. High-res models have some 35-50 mph gusts here during and after the freezing rain.  Thankfully the zr amounts arnt scary high on high res. But wouldn't take much.

How much zr will be a problem for trees if wind gusts sre 30+?

.3-.4?

I would think as dry as it’s been that would help 

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

Ha! On that run the gfs is like I’ll put a lakes low up there but I’ll also make it so cold over the TN Valley that it will produce enough cold for the gulf coast to have its own snow storm! Ridiculous!

I’d just like to say the only long range forecast that has a 90% success rate is one where there’s a low in the lakes….

kidding aside, I’m concerned about pipes popping across the state with the amount of cold in the forecast…

If I ever move from the house my wife and I built, just know it will be somewhere north and west of I-81.............. Not sure why i need to tell you guys this, but felt it needed to be verbalized.   lol

On 1/21/2026 at 3:22 PM, Greyhound said:

I think we need Elon Musk to take a look at these weather models and figure out all the issues. Love him or hate him, his companies do have some impressive technology out there.

Along those lines, since these models are as lost as a roller skate in a bowling alley, I’m gonna go ahead and assume it’s gonna be sunny, dry and in the low to mid 80s next week. Gonna get some tee times and enjoy the balmy weather


.

I can see the future with Musk in charge of a weather model.....................  Looks like a snowstorm 17 days from now (8-12 inches).   Thanks, I'll head to the store and buy a shovel.

Just now, nrgjeff said:

GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again.

Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked it in harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins. Amazing.

Sunscreen kidding aside, we have a former NWS guy at our church.  Long retired.   He told me 15 years ago this area was probably one of the most difficult areas to forecast in North America.

I'll be keeping you northern middle TN guys in my thoughts while you are in the upper teens to mid 20's and collecting ICE for hours on end.   I'm heading to Walgreens to grab some sunscreen for when the downslope dries me out and pushes me into the 50s on Sunday...  :-)

7 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yes, I am north of Nashville and now only have a 30% chance of 6" or more; my question is, if they suspect less snow, why isnt the area in a Ice Storm Warning then? 

That's a good question.  Temps are supposed to be in the teens and low 20's for a long duration.

12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I am going to shut up about this stuff (at least for a while) now because I think other posters might be over it. 

I will be watching for this now. I love microclimate stuff. 

Everyone should keep in mind, this is all some of us have to be concerned/curious about for pretty much the duration of this storm.................  lol

You guys are making my head hurt, not to mention I’m on my phone instead of desktop.  Are you saying the same downslope component that warms certain areas (i.e. camp creek) actually works to pull cold air through valleys in the mountain chain from NC to TN in other places?