tnweathernut

Erwin has had a bare ground since 10 this morning.  We are in the mid 30's downtown, while areas just to our northwest in and around Johnson City appear to be holding around 31/32

1 hour ago, zcarland said:

Other than tonight, what time of day are we looking at for the biggest potential returns here? TRI area is where I’m at.


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The last expansion of precip on radar is occurring over the next hour or so.

Dusting in Erwin, around a half inch in north Johnson City when I left the house about 30 minutes ago, but we knew part one was going to be problematic.  Congrats to those overperforming!  Holding out hope tonight can catch the upslope areas up to the other areas.  I'm guessing we wake up to a prettier picture tomorrow than we did today and probably more road problems due to much colder temps.

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently.

I guess all we can do is hope a small fraction of that can translate downstream.

The timing is more important than anything else.  Because of the cold, why not focus mainly on that.  An early morning start for east and northeast TN will have an impact on travel and schools.  That, more than amounts should be the concern.  Focus on timing.  It will be cold enough for problems, that much we know.

IMO, classic case of MRX overthinking things and trying to be too cute. They don't really even have to go out on that limb right now, so why do it?  Just go with a general 1-3" and fine tune it tomorrow morning.  Getting into this fine of detail 48 hours in advance of a .1-.3 QPF system is silly and drives me nuts.

All kidding (kinda) aside,  a pretty good pass and the second best chance at a widespread winter event are looking increasingly likely.  

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Man another storm with an absolutely brutal warm nose for eastern areas. This has been the winter of warm nosing and downslope lol. 

Winter, decade, quarter-century…..  been a pretty consistent feature for the better part of the last 25 years.  Almost as consistent as a SE wind off the mountain when it’s cold enough for snow everywhere but along the base of the Apps.  lol

On 12/23/2024 at 4:05 PM, John1122 said:

If the Euro wins, we're going to be spending a good portion of January shivering. Snow and ice also look to be on tap. If the GFS is correct, we may still get there, but later.

Looks like the euro won this battle.  We didn’t score as much with the snow and ice (what’s new), but we didn’t totally blank either.  Pretty much all of TN saw at least some snow.  With the EPS/GPS showing the way back toward something workable around mid February, while the GFS charts its own way…… guessing the GFS will be 0-2 here in a couple of weeks.

52 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

This is going to be an historic storm for places that may not see snow for a decade (or more) after this. At ths point, I'd rather not see a northwest trend to keep the proximity tease subdued. I know a 'L' is a 'L' but losing by 30 is easier for this guy to swallow than at the buzzer. 

On a side note, it would be fun if this forum had a poll option. I imagine we'll see some guidance corrections today: Would you rather be in Birmingham, Atlanta, or Charlotte at this stage of the game? 

If you got downsloped with this last system in northeast TN, and you’ve seen several runs of the CMC tease SE/far east TN with next weeks system, you’d be ok with a bit of a northwest trend and a shot at a light snow event.  Im guessing these guys/gals are willing to sacrifice historic gulf coast snow for it.  Pretty sure those guys moved down there so they wouldn’t see snow anyway……. lol

Besides, when was the last time Jeff scored twice in a 10 day period??

I mean, it’s not like the last 6 runs of the GFS is staying put…….there is a definite trend at the surface. Looking at 500 there’s a limit how far north and west this can make it, but getting scraped isn’t out of the question for some, IMO.

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro has below zero temps right in the middle of my February warm-up!  If I was driving a car called the February torch...the warning lights would be coming on.  BTW, it has yet another solution for snow next week.  

Sounds like we need to put the once reliable Euro on Prozac...

20 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Y'all are starting to sound like me! Welcome to the Dark Side.

AI versions pretty much followed their ops versions. Whatever. I'm going with the Canadian. Sounds good, eh?

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Super similar to NE TN.  We aren't in a snow drought here, but many areas are in a "big storm" drought.  NE TN normally cashes into a big storm from time to time.  I think it is La Nina weather patterns - drought city there and here.

Was just thinking about that yesterday.  In the "snowless" 90's northeast TN saw three separate foot plus events.  Not once since I can recall.  Pretty crazy.

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I mean if you simply say, "Which one makes the most sense given the incoming cold?"  It is an easy choice.  Two model runs make no sense given climatology.  Charleston snow once in a blue moon?  Sure.  North Florida snowstorms?  Man, I won't be able to resist marching myself into the climate forum(please don't start discussing that here!!!!).  E TN could sneak into this.  That said, these systems next week definitely have a lot of aspects of a Carolina snowstorm.  I remember seeing the thousands of posts when we were in the SE forum about their storms.  This fits about all of the criteria need for snow for them.

But....every once in a while the E TN posters would reel one in w/ a northwest jog.  It was pretty glorious.  Those folks haven't had snow in a while, so I will go easy.  But I am still hoping maybe we can reel one in across the Apps. 

I think a big storm is possible.  IF, we are looking at the Weds-Fri fram right now...remember modeling loses systems often between d5-8.

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow?  Maybe back in the mid 20 teens?  I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it.  Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded.  Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain.   I kid, I kid.  :-)

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan.  Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong.  lol 

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State. 

If it's still there on the EURO AI at 0z and also still there on the Canadian there is probably a reason for a thread for the Sunday system, IMO. Especially if one more model jumps on board (i.e. ICON, GFS, EURO). In addition to the AI and GEM, there are hints of it on the normally biased progressive modeling and we are working our way under hour 96.  JMO

43 minutes ago, bearman said:

The new afternoon MRX disco discounts snow chances as well.                                                                                                                                                                                    

For the early part of next week, the main weather impact will be
extreme cold temperatures, driven by an Arctic High originating in
northern Canada. Current model guidance indicates this high to
remain very strong (near 1045mb) and gradually become centered over
the area. Very deep troughing and 850mb temperatures nearing -20
Celsius will near record low values for this time of year.
Confidence is fairly high for most places to see highs in the 20s
Monday and Tuesday, possibly even in the teens. The strength of
subsidence and CAA also make the case for many places to drop into
the single digits, despite a lack of predicted snow cover. At this
range, it is unclear how much wind may result, but wind chills could
easily reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Past climate data shows
that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3
years in the area. The other question will be if any system develop
and track close to our area next week. Based on current model data
and the strength of the Arctic High, potential is fairly limited,
but this is still a possibility.

 

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area."

Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

40 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

For now - MRX seems unimpressed. Morning disco - 

Early next week, anomalous cold arrives with temperatures expected
to be below freezing for an extended period of time - perhaps 2 to 3
days or more for much of the region. There is high confidence in
very cold air moving into the region. There is also relatively high
confidence in one or two low pressure systems taking a southern
storm track across the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas; however,
there is low confidence in the amount of moisture this far north. At
this time the heaviest precipitation from these systems is modeled to
stay south of the viewing area, but any deviation in the track
slightly northward would bring impactful snow to the area.

Fixed it for them ....

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately, that's what happened in 2018. Gulf coast snow while we were dry and then a nice juicy rainer as soon as the cold unlocked. 

In December 1982 it did that three times. Cutter, below zero cold with flurries, then cutter, back below zero etc. 

It's probably the second best thing northeast TN excels with.  The first is dryslots and downsloping.  haha

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has 3 systems that track along the Gulf but are mostly suppressed still. Its in bed with the Canadian in that the Canadian had a few waves but obviously less suppressed than the Euro. 

Would be a kick in the pants to see so many underperform on the last storm and then watch areas of the deep south find a foot plus next week while we see flurries and pipe busting cold.  lol  Kidding aside, my money is on a trough that is further west and a track that adjusts further north and west with time also.  The GEFS seems to be hinting at this the last several runs.  I guess time will tell.

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is just firing shot after shot.

The AI has been all over GA low development Sunday across GA on the tail end of the cold front for a couple of days now. VERY consistent from what I have seen.  Doesn't mean it has to happen, but I've been intrigued by its consistency since it's a sneaky little 2-4 or 3-6 potential snow system for east TN that's now working inside of day 4ish.

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Main thing to me is the models are sending up big red flags for something coming in the SE. High impact events (snow/severe/flooding etc..), the honking usually starts blaring within this range...OPs give you the potential...Ensembles give you the impact area generally.

Was just about to say something similar.  A high impact event is becoming more likely.  Figuring out where (assuming things continue to progress toward an event) will cause all kinds of headaches the next several days, but ensembles will be what I'm looking at the most.

2 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

Some mets were on it around a week out.  Many laughed at them.  They certainly didn't have anything close to them modeling we have now, but the now archaic model(s) they had locked in early and didn't waver a lot.  It was called the storm of the century, but was also probably the best forecast system of that century........

There was a northwest shift that happened that screwed many in the Carolinas.  James Spann (Birmingham met) has several good videos that covered the system as it was happening on YouTube.