roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Why do you feel this developing El Niño will be able to when even the Super Nino in ‘15 couldn’t? What’s different this time?
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There’s been so much summer warmth and high dewpoints in recent years that I think it’s skewed the perception of what summer can be here. Last summer felt like a somewhat cool summer to me with those stretches of comfortable temps and low dewpoints but the reality is that it wasn’t really cool at all in the end. I think our last real cool summer month was August 2017. Six years is a long time.
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While it’s been very dry recently, the changing pattern next week looks much more favorable for rain across our sub. We don’t usually do dry very well these days around here. If anything is agw fueled, it’s the extra moisture we get around here in the summer. It seems like an eternity since dewpoints have been as low as they’ve been recently in the summer.
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I’m not sure intentional climate change is better than unintentional climate change.
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I still think the -PDO is interesting. I don't think that's flipping positive anytime soon. We see hints of -PDO even on the models that have the strong/super Nino. December '72 looked nothing like a Nino across the country. Was it due to the -PDO? Even if we were to manage to achieve a very strong Nino like '97 or '15, I think there's a good chance the PDO will be very different than those two years. So, a -PDO combined with possibly more west based forcing would at least keeps things interesting I think.
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That’s like betting on the outcome of a football game when it’s already in the 4th quarter.
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It looks like the MJO is going to be moving strongly through the Maritime Continent phases. Is that unusual for a developing El Niño?
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It’s even causing visibility restrictions at the surface. If I had a forest nearby, I would think it’s on fire. lol
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Canada burning is causing amazingly thick smoke here.
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The problem is as soon as you get some wind to mix it up, it'll cool down. It takes more than a couple weeks of warmth to warm up such a big, deep body of water. It's pretty deceiving really. The water temp there could easily be cooler on the 4th of July than it is now.
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I’m not as knowledgeable as a lot of you guys are but it looks like the MJO could be heading back toward the Maritime Continent toward mid June. Doesn’t that usually impact the Nino development in a negative way? That probably means the global pattern would be getting a shake up as well.
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Maybe the MJO doesn’t stall in phase 7. Euro keeps it moving with a split in its members between weak phase 8 or into the circle. JMA takes it straight into the circle while Australian model takes it fairly strongly into 8 but that run was from a couple of days ago. It seems the trend has been for weaker MJO forecasts. The GEFSv12 seems to kind of be on its own here.
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Anyone else remember 20+ years ago when Accuweather had videos called Point Counterpoint with Joe Bastardi and Ken Reeves. This thread reminds me of that. lol
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It looks like the sub surface/heat content cooled a little on the weekly update.
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BTW, with how negative the PDO has been, it’s no surprise it is starting to become less negative. I’m not sure that means it’s going to flip to positive soon.
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Now you're just getting desperate.
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Truly frightening. lol
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How much does it even matter if the current 3.4 anomaly is high than 1997 at this time? Nothing else that matters is anything like 1997 right now. Twitter is just used for hype apparently.
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This is another index that kind of shows my point about how the super Nino years were "primed" and ready to go by this point.
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I guess the sun angle didn’t stop it from accumulating.
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Even the CFSv2 with its super Nino forecast has 1.2 peaking now and falling. Some of the members have it barely above 0 by December.
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I'm sure he is talking about Tonga.
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Even the vehicle in the driveway melted away.
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I remember in summer 2014 when the talk was of a strong Nino coming on, the SOI never averaged strongly negative. If you were forecasting based off the SOI, you would’ve forecasted a weak Nino and sure enough that’s what we ended up with. The 30 day is barely negative right now. It’ll be interesting to see what it looks like this summer.
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It’s a hinderance to its development though. It reminds me of Spring 2016 when we had models going crazy predicting a strong Nina. The CFS V2 had a super Nina predicted. The PDO never went negative though and the best we could do was a weak Nina that winter despite what the models were forecasting.
