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Posts posted by canderson
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5 minutes ago, yoda said:
TW for Huntingdon/Mifflin counties till 1:45pm
When Yoda shows up, you know you have weather headlines!
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I have some very very light rain here right now.
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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:
It is sort of an interesting "civil war" here on the boards with Sandy.
My wife and I spent a week volunteering on Long Island to help with relief efforts. What we saw and experienced is something that I'll never forget. I can understand the emotion and respect given to that storm from the people who actually lived through it.
Having said that - my wife also went to Houston to help with relief efforts after Harvey. Can't really compare the two storms, but on a very personal level they were remarkably similar. The personal toll and devastation was very raw, very real at the human level. In both situations, the emotional response from the residents was something special. My wife's team was rebuilding a home in Pearland - people that were obviously complete strangers, but for that family to have an army of volunteers to come in to their home and clean up and rebuild was equally special and emotional for my wife and her team to help as it was for the family whose home they rebuilt.
It's sort of a shame that Sandy has become almost divisive. When a storm, any storm, affects YOUR neighborhood and YOUR livelihood, it becomes very personal. Sure, it's easy and "fun" to compare storms and their effects but I wish people would just be respectful and understanding when people share their feelings because to them - it's personal. For those that went through Sandy - Sandy is the benchmark. For those living in Tuscaloosa back in 2011 (my wife also provided relief there) it's personal. For those in Houston who went through Harvey - it's personal. Let's respect that and resist saying that my storm was worse than yours was. It's sort of pointless at that level.
Thank you for helping during Harvey. I know so many who lost everything - including family. They lived in Pearland, you might have helped someone we know. Small world.
Also the Cajun Navy was one of the most amazing things to witness - ever.
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48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
Here come all the stories of how NYC will be destroyed.
If a stalling sub-950 mb hurricane comes up and hits NJ/NY from the southwest keeping the rivers and harbor in the NE eyewayll ... that's gonna create issues that will destroy so many sectors of this economy and culture I don't even know what to say.
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I thought it had rained but zero evidence ... dirt isn’t even slightly wet. So maybe just wind blown mist.
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It rained for literally 45 seconds.
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Those storms were obliterated by the mountains. Might get some light rain though.
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Yea I’m seeing already hw this is gonna split southern Dauphin/Cumberland/Perry/Historic Maytown.
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The Euro was AWFUL with Laura. The GFS nailed it.
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
Wow, it is only 88 here and I can be at the Capitol in less an an hour. Crazy.
MDT is only 93.
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Up to 98 - probably my 5th 100 day this year.
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Just now, paweather said:
Some storms this afternoon? Winds are gusty here right now.
Gotta be north - above 80 north - I think. But they're going to get some strong storms up there later.
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96 degrees here already. Gusting to 26. Sustained around 15.
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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:
@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well. Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early. The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.
I don't think surge was overblown - 30 miles of SW LA is uninhabitable marshland and if it's 20' underwater no one is gonna know. The angle with surge matters - LC apparently got lucky there.
I bet Cameron and the local beach communities are gone.
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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well. Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early. The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.
They're so far all good - Houston barely had 25 mph winds. My parents in East Texas very close to the border are in the western eyewall now and having some really severe winds and insane rain ... far worse than Houston. Rita did the same thing.
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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:
Ugh it's not a good outlook for most of a lot of those communities. I hope the ones in Port Arthur, Lake Charles, and Nederland evacuated. The way this storm is moving at a half decent clip it's going to take hurricane force wind gusts way inland. Hurricane hunter's are finding pressures in the 930s now. Like I said in my last post, this is probably coming in peak intensity. It's sort of looking like the situation with Hurricane Michael back in 2018.
As bad as this is going to be on the coast and well inland for those that get into the core of the storm, the fact this thing is going to split the uprights and landfall in a pretty rural stretch between Galveston/Houston and New Orleans is a miracle. Couldn't imagine this coming straight up Galveston Bay or into SE LA below NOLA.
It’s gonna destroy so much land that’ll be lost the Gulf but yea, it’s hitting about the best possible place between Houston and NO. That unfortunately means Lake Charles is going to never be the same again.
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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:
Well Laura escalated quickly today, geesh. I'm not really surprised this ran up to a 4 as this is what organized hurricanes in the very warm Gulf do this time of the year when the surrounding conditions are conducive. It def has "the look" now with the symmetric central dense overcast and very well defined and equally symmetric eye. NHC notes in their disco possible increase of SW shear and maybe an eyewall replacement cycle right as it's coming in but there's not much time for either of those things to do much if it happens. It's moving at a steady pace. I think this thing's probably going to come in near peak intensity (within 10mph either side of its current 145 sustained). Could this crack a 5? Maybe an outside chance...although the pressure's a little high. 940s type pressure usually are suggestive of a cat 4 or even a high 3. It would probably have to really deepen a good bit more pressure wise down at least into the 920-930ish range.
Either way this is going to have a tremendous storm surge into southern LA/extreme SE TX. The low lying marshland/bayous that make up the immediate several miles to the coastline are going be inundated easily and that's why NHC has very strong wording with the storm surge as it is going to penetrate miles inland from the actual coast.
Where are some of the people you know located in that area?
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, DeRitter, Nederland and then many from Galveston / Houston area.
But then so many around Nacogdoches and Shreveport and Longview - my parents are 30 miles from the border. They had 75 mph winds in Rita in NE Texas.
Those beautiful pine forest are gonna be decimated.
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I know so many that are gonna be devastated by Laura and I can do nothing to help. I’m kinda distraught.
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2 hours ago, paweather said:
Looks like next week the heat will be on break at the very least good news. But heck this is not a hot summer.
Is that a prolonged stretch of low, low 80s (at best) and lower-than-normal humidity I see next week???
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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:
Most model consensus has been focusing near that TX/LA border region for landfall, with the EC ensemble mean having been running uncomfortably close to the Galveston/Houston region. Looks like the 18z Euro ensemble cluster shifted east a bit from 12z, putting the mean near the border region. Galveston/Houston is probably going to get at least a piece of this hurricane but hopefully staying on the west side of the storm will mitigate storm surge issues some in that area. It seems Port Arthur is most under the gun attm in terms of any bigger town, but the storm making a landfall up that coastline toward the border would generally be a plus because there is not much at all on that stretch population wise and even that immediate corridor inland this storm is likely to take is pretty rural. What could be significantly impacted on that forecast track is oil infrastructure, especially with a major hurricane which is what Laura is likely to be at that stage. The new 18z Euro op has it coming in at 945mb.
The issue there is it’s nothing but oil refineries. Nearly all gas comes from the PA / Texas City area.
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The storms today are pro-confederacy - nothing north of the border.
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Forecast high: 90
Current high: 94
Winds pretty gusty too - up to around 25 mph. -
1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:
With due respect to Canderson's family and hoping for the best Laura getting to Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibility at this point.
Let's hope the current shear holds serve.
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FWIW my family isn't evacuating - they live between Houston and Galveston and then about 8 miles east of Galveston itself.
Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
Very cool timelapse from Pittsburgh this morning.