canderson

Virga ongoing here now. BTW the river is iced over real nice. First time all year. 

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Can you please ask them why they have continually changed their forecast the last 2 days before the event even started?

What happened to making a reasonable forecast & then maybe changing it once if needed before the event?

They will change in the middle of the event and then say they had it right all along!

They addressed this actually in the post I shared on the last page. I personally have no issues with them tweaking forecasts as they go. They’ve onky reply changed MDT 3 times - from 3-7, 3-5 and now 2-4.  

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll go with 2.6" for the airport. You probably get to 3", Blizz might tack on a half inch from there. 

This is just based off climo more than anything else. 

It’ll al be scattered when we wake up anyway lol  

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"?    Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting.  Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you. 

You’re a bit over my prediction for MDT. I’m going with 2.9”. 

I was curious so I asked CTP about why there are no wind advisories.  

They had a great response:

Chris Anderson When there is already a winter storm advisory or warning in effect for an area, there isn't a need/requirement to add another/separate advisory. At the point/time when the other warnings and advisories are/will not be in effect, then a wind advisory is recommended. Looking at the current forecast, this point is still 24+ hrs out for just a handful (3-4) counties. There is still time to discern whether or not the marginal wind gusts (forecast to be right at or just above 40KT) warrant issuance of a stand-alone wind advisory. If forecast confidence in a period of 40+KT gusts remains or increases for these 3 or 4 counties (and for the 3 to 6 hours such conditions might last after the winter headlines expire) we probably will do it. Gusty winds are already mentioned in much of the forecast information we have out there.

CTP posted to Facebook…

520 AM 1/16/2022: A significant "Nor'Easter," one type of East Coast snowstorm (ECS), will affect the entire eastern seaboard today into Monday. Note the track/path of the center of the low pressure area (noted as a red "L" on the maps attached) will cross PA from south to north, likely just to the west of the Mainstem Susquehanna River. This track is usually one which allows a great deal of warm air to be drawn in from the Atlantic Ocean, and deeper (farther west) into PA. This results in much more mix precipitation and plain rain than would a track which would follow the NJ coast or the Delaware River. The track of the low has become much more certain over the past two days. Thus, any earlier forecasts which allowed for extreme amounts of snow over the Susq Valley are looking like they will not come to fruition. Usually, as we get closer to a (potential) storm, the forecasts improve in timing and precipitation type and amounts. This storm, and how the forecast has evolved over the last few days, is a good example of why we ask that you "stay tuned" and "check back for updates." This is especially true when there are many days to go before a storm could arrive. So, please do not latch on to the first forecast you see, especially if it is just a snowfall amount map. So many things can change regarding the interactions of all the meteorological conditions which influence a storm over the course of many days.

5 degrees. Bet.  

CTP’s latest discussion is heavily focused in the dry slot. I’d rather have it than sleet and rain. 

No matter what happens tomorrow evening this system has been absolutely fascinating. Models have been uro is rock solid so if it is right major kudos). But we don’t see this type of thing much and it’s been interesting to watch develop. 

Just now, Ruin said:

Not true id say %75 of the time yes but %25 I remember storms that for some reason the temps didnt get even to 30 even tho we were in the mid 20s other times we have been in the teens and just got to 20. its rare but it happens friend ive seen it.

We do well with CAD but we can’t fight off a southerly influx. 
 

In 2019 we had a similar southerly flow than flipped snow to sleet and killed our expected 6”. We had 2.5” iirc of nearly all sleet. 

16 minutes ago, Ruin said:

lol this is why im holding out hope the models just cause they all some what agree dont have a hold on it as many thing they do.

Warm air nearly always wins here - almost always. It’s why I don’t buy the euro. I’ll be pretty shocked if I get 3” snow/sleet before rain washes it mostly away. 

8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

AHem, you might want to check that spelling of our city.

Oops. I blame the beer. Drinking away the impending rainstorm. 

Checking in from the east. Think you guys get hammered at our expense and that’s totally ok - Pittsburgh deserves a major snow. Enjoy!

NAM appears to be a flat out tropical rain storm lol 

11 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Is the wind going to relax tomorrow at all before picking back up Monday 

Tomorrow will be pretty calm. Sunday’s overnight won’t be too gusty, just in the mid 20s. Monday and Monday night is the brunt - gusts nearing 50. 

Not sure why there isn’t a wind advisory out yet, it’s usually 36 hours.  

I’m still at 19. High was 22. DP is -4 though. 

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Something  is going to bust....Nam/GFS/Rgem -OR- HRRR/Euro

I can’t trust the euro for temps. It’s been pretty bad with them for more than a year and it’s notorious for not being great with thermal temps. 

iBut I hope it scores a coup! 

My grid forecast is incredibly detailed regarding temps. 
 

41 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Anyone with more information regarding wind. Euro is throwing out guest to near 60mph for Harrisburg. If mixing is going to dislodge this cold then it’s going to bring the wind with it mixing it down. I don’t think you can have one without the other here. 

@MAG5035 has said he doesn’t expect those gusts to mix down and CTP seems to agree. I don’t understand the dynamics of why not myself. CTP is peaking to mid 40s 

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

From what I heard, it even stropped at the county lines. Word on the street was that Schuylkill County roads were really bad last Sunday, but as soon as you got out of Tower City (and the Skook) and into Dauphin County on 209 at least, the roads went from bad to pretty good.

Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy.

8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

And if MDT gets less than 4-6 he's a model hugger.

Meh no one can be criticized or mocked for busting on this system (not saying anyone here does that just in general). 
 

I’ll be absolutely shocked if I get 4” snow out of this. Warm air nearly universally gets here quicker then forecast. But if the thump is heavy enough it very well might be 4-5”. Anything over that is lottery ticket stuff l.  

9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Rare to see such a discrepancy.  

You almost have to toss the NAM run due to the crazy duel lows bouncing around. Plus it it clearly took all the meth in Georgia. 

Just now, Ruin said:

ABC 27 video on the site future radar claims 930/10pm for the change over god I hope they are wrong 

CTP says 10. It’ll move S to N. It all is about the thump. 
 

Winds have backed way off for the LSV. It’ll be gusty but Mag was totally correct per usual. Gusts in the mid 30s seems like the feel. Hell we had that all afternoon yesterday. 

It is GD cold out.  11. 

CTP says the LSV flips to rain before midnight. You just have to hope the thump is heavy. 

Great discussion this morning from them: 

Moisture will surge northward behind robust isentropic lift and
likely produce a period of moderate snow with potential for an
embedded west-east oriented band of heavy heavy snow (1 inch/hr
rates possible) moving from south to north early Sunday night
(00-06Z Mon). This band will slow down and pivot to become SW-NE
oriented over Warren/McKean Counties and points northeast from
there, with potential for 1-2 inch/hr rates continuing over
Warren and McKean Counties from 06z into the predawn hours.

South and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor, thermal profiles are
expected to warm above freezing first in the 750-850 hPa layer
and then also at the sfc across the lower Susquehanna Valley.
Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain across the south
starting around 10pm and the wintry mix is expected to approach
I-80 by around midnight. Sfc temps will likely warm above
freezing just before midnight across the Lower Susq, bringing a
change to plain rain. Above freezing sfc temps will then push
farther north along the Susquehanna valley toward Williamsport.
In addition to the warm advection, a dry slot will bring a
ribbon of decreased RH in midlevels for much of our central and
eastern zones, leading to decreased SLRs first and then
potentially the loss of cloud ice, resulting in a wider area of
light freezing rain / drizzle that could extend through much of
the CWA with the exception of the far northwest, where the
pivoting snow band will continue. Freezing rain may result in a
glaze of ice, but will generally be low impact due to snow
already on the ground and then temps warming above freezing in
some spots.