canderson

Meanwhile at my parents’ in East Texas it’s 8 degrees and they have 9” snow.

IMO models can’t handle ice accretion well. NWS is much better at forecasting it.

Monday looks disgusting. Maybe 1/2 of sleet mixed with freezing rain before it flips to plain rain. Nary a snowflake to be found, it seems

If we get more than 4” snow by Friday it’ll be a miracle imo. Half of Texas gets a better winter week than us!

If it helps no models have any idea what is happening here in central Pennsylvania the next 48 hours. They can’t handle these storms.

They can had 4” then, actually. And temps were only in the low 20s.

The pride of Longview! Or something.

My parents’ grid forecast in northeast Texas is NUTS. Please pray for Texas. They can’t handle these temps ask the infrastructure and houses can’t handle it either, or the snow/ice. Tonight A chance of snow and sleet, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Wind chill values between 9 and 14. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow and sleet before 10am, then snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 23. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 6. Wind chill values between -1 and -11. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Washington's Birthday A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 15. Wind chill values between -2 and -12. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 23. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 18. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 28. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Thursday A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 30. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.

CAD always last longer than modeled. Ice is all but guaranteed- just hope the rates are heavier.

Our car was covered in ice running to let our friends dog out.

Flash flood warnings ahead?

They’ve all sucked - the NAM mayyyybe less so that the others.

Wait we are in a WWA? We have to go to a friends tonight to let their dog out .... is that a bad idea? It’s over a few interstate bridges.

I see no way we don’t get a significant ice storm. The setup is ideal.

Correct, the heavier the rate the less accretion.

Agreed. .5-.75 is the danger zone. Anything over .75 is catastrophic.

Oh we’ll see triple that sooooooo.

What’s the criteria here for an ice storm warning?

Keep them dripping.

Yup. It’ll be the once a decade Interstate 45 Ice Skating Extravaganza.

The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things.

My family is freaking out. Snow will cripple the infrastructure and millions will be without power.

What’s the CMC show? It gives us snow in June lol.

We might swing and miss on most all these waves ... except the one that gives us .75” zr. Of course!

Looks like a viscous ice storm to me, but again I’m not smart at this stuff lol.