dryslot

Gets captured.

0z Nam pretty cold from the 18z run, Sleet into SNE too.

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really? Seemed awfully south(and more robust at that early stage)  compared to earlier runs from this morning and yesterday? But maybe it’s just my imagination. 

lol, It is, This was the 18z Nam and the 0z is in the same place too

Slow as a fuk

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That coastal is south…and just getting going at that point. 

All the models have the secondary forming near the delmarva so it really isn't anymore south.

Wear a helmet.

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

But with which parameters?  

NAM is the go to for mid level warmth surge in these set ups. 

It was an epic fail on the last storm up here last week.

Winds are forecast to be 30's mph G45-55mph up here, It will be grid failure.

Just take everything down and get it over with.

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something is amiss with the NARCAN lol

 

Seems fine to me, Can always go higher if need be.

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sell that Goofus. 

Sell everything 

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

18+ odds

Just like all the other winters, Congrats lol

Jeezus

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Developing theme now is a late blooming CCB as the ULL interacts with the 980 ish LP south of CC. Turns the corner someone from Scooter to NE Mass gets smoked.  Meteorologically makes perfect sense with that position of the ULL

All guidance is bullish up here since 12z, Even the 18z ICON which I typically don’t look at.

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Reggie a tick north but very reach around-ish for eastern Mass.

20"+ lol here.

2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Getting a little granular with the NAM at like 60 hours here .. haha!

Some nightmares from a week or so ago?

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

700mb is the issue.  Might pinch off just in time for you.

I already looked at that on the 12k and it did here, Just looked at 3k and did there too fwiw, More analyzing then i need to be doing on the Nam lol

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Thought for a moment it would trend better with that limited WAA aloft.

Nammy going to need a few more cycles.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although low goes into srn CT lol.

Secondary goes bonkers down to 981mb then track north thru the VT/NH border..........lol

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems to be happening.

Looks to be SE a couple tics from 12z

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Isn’t the issue up near 700?

No issue there either up here, looked to be -02c

Just now, CoastalWx said:

850s are good. Above is the issue. 

The next layer i can see is 925mb, I cant see south of either of those

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean globals in general don't handle it well. So that's something to think about. NAM and hi res models handle it better...but we know the NAM can be....well the NAM.  Not being negative, just something to think about. It was too warm in the last event too.

Still looks quite cold here as the secondary just starts to get going those H85 temps are going SE with it.

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So obvious NAM has lost it completely 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno there is also going to be a lot of convection too. 

Well, That's the thing, Not sure how well its handling it but that does reek havoc on the models.