I agree if you get below freezing at the surface, That what may happen here as its going to fall the heaviest after sunset, But out of the gate the ground truth will not yield those ratios.
That is a potent s/w down south, Your also getting some earlier phasing now to as the explosive development yesterday was cape north and now its seems to be around LI to the cape further south.
I think the the 3K Nam has the right idea until proven wrong, It does side with all the other guidance except the 12K, Although the 12k Nam is quite wound up i would question it having that warm layer aloft.
Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha.