You guys are certainly in the battleground area around the pike and just north, I could see you transitioning fairly quick though if the cold keeps pressing while the precip arrives to pellets then snow with ice/pellets further south.
Yeah, I'm not sure the accuracy of any of these, You really need to look at soundings, I know up here, Its looks like we stay isothermal right from the start now.
That looks like its going to be there as models pick up late on the cold, The main thing is keeping the system coming up from the SW juiced or it wont matter how cold it is if there's no moisture with it but i don't think that happens with its origins.