Yeah, I'm not sure the accuracy of any of these, You really need to look at soundings, I know up here, Its looks like we stay isothermal right from the start now.
That looks like its going to be there as models pick up late on the cold, The main thing is keeping the system coming up from the SW juiced or it wont matter how cold it is if there's no moisture with it but i don't think that happens with its origins.
What i'm watching for now is for that southern stream s/w to come up here amped once the cold air is in place, If its weaker it will be further SE and won't be a robust with the precip shield.