That was kind of where i was going with that without actually going there, We already have some ready to swan dive off the tobin ha ha, Yes, That western solution on the 22nd would force the next one further south and shred it.
The 12/22 one looks to be the blocking mechanism for the two follow ups on the 24-25th, But as this ends up tracking more west, The block looks to end up there as well.
I have been looking at the Ensembles on this one the last few days too, You can see the kinks back west at the surface with a few members moving in that direction.
Yes, If we could get this going just a tad sooner, Its still borderline here so it would not take much, But that is a potent s/w moving up the coast on the 22nd.
It has to do more on phasing, For days it was phasing this over new foundland, Models are try to phase this over SNE in the last few runs, We would need this process to happen further south.