Primary has trended a bit weaker as well so that aids in the further south tracks too, Its about 4-5mb less then when you had it getting further north.
All kidding aside, I use to dump all over it until the Feb 4th event, It did the same thing its doing here and it ended up being right, Now maybe it ends up wrong this time, But when it sniffs a warm layer, It usually is pretty good with it.