dryslot
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Everything posted by dryslot
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18z Nam, Another tic or two NW a bit warmer as well, SLP over ACK. -
Ticked a bit NW again.
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I know he owns it, I bought a sled from him back in 2007, Didn't know if he may have sold it or not, And Yes, Great guy, Went out of his way for me, Long story.
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Is Frank still at Ft Kent Ski doo?
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H5 closing off over LI, Thats where i was going with this, 10 days ago, This was looking like a storm in that millibar range you outlined, That does happen up in canada, It looks like it remains in the 995-1000mb range as it passes our lat.
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My thoughts were mainly that the RGEM i believe sniffed this one out and has remained steadfast, Unfortunately, For all of us, This remains rather disorganized and you never get this to close off until up around the Gaspe.
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Good reason why i'm not all that interested in this one as it will get suppressed to the south with that cold air moving overhead if it even develops close enough which i am totally skeptical on that.
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Reggie has been the most consistent model and has maintained a further NW track with the SLP for 3 or 4 days now for up here with a 0.50-0.75" qpf distribution.
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This one so far really doesn't get its act together until its up in Canada.
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06z Euro was what i was envisioning, Let see if the 12z runs continue with the earlier development at the surface.
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Lot of emphasis was placed on this period producing, We’re starting to get into some bad territory for salvaging a decent avg winter, Not saying it can’t be done, But it looks like we are heading into another warmup which will now take us into February to produce.
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Just a bit late on development further south to get the higher end of totals.
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Still time to increase qpf and intensity now that we are setting the track potentially, Doesn't sound like much, But it was 4mb stronger at the same hr 0z weds then the 18z run.
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The last of the global's caved, 0z Euro shifts NW to match up with the mesos.
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A miss, Is a miss, No matter what the ceiling is, And right now, Were running out of get out of jail free cards as were hitting mid January, That is the benchmark to gauge a climo avg winter.
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7-10 days ago, The ceiling was quite high.
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Don't really care what the GEM has, But seeing the GFS make a shift..........
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Models are adjusting NW and sooner with developing the SLP.
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Yes, Global's are caving.
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Tracking thru the GOM is always key up here.
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Its been ticking slowly to develop the slp sooner and a bit further south on some of these runs in the GOM instead of into NS.
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There was a convective blob out east on these model runs earlier that the SLP was chasing pulling the baroclinic zone further east and this last cycle or two has not done that and has held the SLP further to the west, You can see this on the 0z HRRR.
