Stormlover74

Perhaps, but I can recall many years when we thought summer was over and the heat came roaring back.

Shouldn't new Brunswick also be 3?

Craig Allen Quick Sunday afternoon update for now- WCBS Newsradio 880 PIX 11 With a little more urgency! On this quiet, unseasonably cold Sunday, here's where we stand with the Monday night-Wednesday winter storm threat. Like yesterday, I'll keep it simple and not-too-meteorological, lol...for now. All the weather maps- and I mean every one of them, from operational to ensembles to experimentals- still shows a major impact snowstorm developing Monday night and lasting through Tuesday night with lingering snow on Wednesday. It has the makings of a full fledged nor’easter by the book (Glossary of Meteorology). This storm will require several ingredients to get together at the perfect time. The cold air is already in place. Gulf moisture and Pacific energy diving into the US will meet up. In the world of meteorology, it’s like threading a needle, but when it does happen, that’s how you get memorable east coast storms. There will be all kinds of extra data pouring into these models over the next 2 days. Reconnaissance flights will be added as well. . The devil remains in the details but odds favor a huge snowstorm with blizzard conditions possible. All those pieces have to get together at just the right time. We’re nearly 100% certain these systems will form into one big one along the mid Atlantic coast but the track from there will be very critical. If it then takes a perfect path of 75-100 miles off L.I., then we'll be dealing with the biggest snowfall of the season. Perhaps a foot or two with gale force winds and blowing and drifting snow. The region would grind to a halt for a day or two. Most models are showing this track. However, a few other models are indicating subtle differences. The NAM was the outlier yesterday being closest to the coast and therefore with the most influx of warmer ocean air so the snow would change to rain for several hours and knock back the accumulations substantially, especially east of the I-95 corridor for all coastal areas, especially the NJ shore and south shore/east end of L.I. The NAM is falling more in line with others in keeping the Low a little farther offshore and has brought the big snows as far south & east as NYC & western L.I. It still shows a period of mixing or changing farther south & east. I just looked at the new Canadian GGEM and after showing blockbuster snow totals last night, it has now backed more towards the coast and reduiced the snow depths across southern NJ and eastern L.I. The UK is a big snow hit as well. In fact, all models show the storm 'bombing out' once offshore. That rapid intensification could lead to snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour, white outs and possible thundersnow. There is very little chance that the track could be farther out to sea. The euro burped yesterday aftyernoon but has now come back in line. Very odd for the euro to do that. For now, just be know you will need to change plans for the first few days of this upcoming week. Absolutely consider alternatives. Airports could close. Schools definitely will under this scenario. Whether it's all snow or a mix, this has the potential to be a high impact event. Where was this when you normally expect this, a month ago. I've gotten to used to the delightful spring-like weather this winter presented more often that not.

It shouldn't be discounted, just taken with a grain of salt

New Euro add: "The latest euro run is much farther east and cuts snow totals by more than half. Is that your final answer? Of course not! And that is why you don't post snowfall maps of totals 3+ days in advance !!!!The internet is littered with them already. I have no problem showing you the model run numbers but it is just that...a computer's "thoughts" which can change run to run as new data is ingested."Meteorologist Craig Allen/Craig Allen On-Air Inc

I think it's a requirement, too many people want a TV weather personality ala Lonnie Quinn

Craig Allen's on tv as well

Yep

We should've known once he threw in the towel that winter would return with a vengeance

Well I know it was but the new averages are probably much lower

Yep just an incredible winter including 32" from the March 2-3rd storm. We had at least 1 storm every week from late Dec through March. 95-96 was great too but the snow shut off by early Feb out there.

They have around 21" So about 50% of normal

Not bad

Hopefully the tropics wake up or we at least continue to get thunderstorm threats.

Maybe not, some of the models have the rain by early evening

You can tell by the grey /browns that you mentioned. Also on the bottom or side it does say clear air. Typically, when there's no precip in the area it's in clear airSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

It's in clear air mode. Also the huge fire on Hillsborough is showing up on radar

Lol I know. It was a joke

Are the euro and ecmwf the same thing?

Looks like EWR/New Brunswick Philly have a shot at 90 tomorrow

Lol at TEB...even now at this hour running 5 degrees warmer than any other station in the area

I think I would disregard TEB..they've been running 2-3 degrees above most surrounding stations even EWR