Stormlover74

And people see the pretty snowmaps and don't understand that's not a forecast

Most people think 2 feet is coming because social media and Facebook weather people have been hyping it nonstop. Official forecasts don't mean much anymore

Yeah if not for the thaw we would've seen a solid -6 or 7 for the month

Yeah start conservative and adjust later on

Will become wetter before any mixing but will start very light and fluffy due to the very cold temps

Its funny because I always felt like that was well forecast out here. Lloyd lindsay young was calling for up to a foot 2 days out. It was a short duration but fell at 2"/hr for most of it with a little sleet on top

Waiting for the 48 hour hrdps to give me 2" of snow followed by 5" of sleet

That's the most likely scenario unfortunately

A rare cold weather advisory NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-231100- /O.NEW.KOKX.CW.Y.0001.260124T0300Z-260124T1500Z/ Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 107 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills around 5 below expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures for any prolonged period of time.

They generally do this though

Should be 12 hours of snow on the euro before any flipping

Yeah I'd bring that 6" line south a bit. Even if they mix Monmouth on north east should do better

I like this map right now

Ukie was already pretty damn good

The euros been damn consistent for the past 5 runs

Right that's how we know it's going to still make adjustments

It sucks at picking out warm layers so if the mesos show it i discount the gfs

Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time

Looks colder and weaker

It is interesting to me that upton never mentions sleet in their forecasts in these situations even when most models have at least some mixing. In this case Mt holly isn't either

Euro looks colder to me. More like 12z

Most of us are <.5" liquid which could still be 6 to 8

It's always last to the party

No they're much colder

From another site..mixing only gets up as far as Cape may