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Stormlover74

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  1. Stormlover74
    Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE...central/western PA...NJ...and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting organized bands of convection is already in place across the region. A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region.
  2. Stormlover74
    Radar's lighting up to the southwest
  3. Stormlover74
    Pretty much area wide but I'm sure a few places will miss out
  4. Stormlover74
    Let's see how accurate this is
  5. Stormlover74
    Hrrr has one round beginning after 2, then a 2nd round after 7
  6. Stormlover74
    Tornado emergency in KY
  7. Stormlover74
    Big storms over delaware basically stationary
  8. Stormlover74
    Wow quite a shift
  9. Stormlover74
    Severe looks like a long shot tomorrow
  10. Stormlover74
    Now the nam is largely dry especially around the city and east 3knam more active
  11. Stormlover74
    Hrrr tomorrow has some morning storms then a break then scattered stuff in the afternoon with a strong line early evening
  12. Stormlover74
    Gfs had a quarter of an inch last night into this morning. It's always overdone
  13. Stormlover74
    Models are still inconsistent with timing tomorrow. Nam is morning and afternoon. Euro is mid afternoon and night. Rgem seems to match euro
  14. Stormlover74
    Pouring now with a bit of thunder and lightning
  15. Stormlover74
    A few isolated cells have popped up over somerset
  16. Stormlover74
    Looking like some showers will roll through after 9 or 10 pm if they survive
  17. Stormlover74
    Euro says screw your memorial day plans
  18. Stormlover74
    Yeah I'm not doing that
  19. Stormlover74
    Nam holds off the precip until evening which would be nice
  20. Stormlover74
    https://twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1794090100084863464?t=0u3Mip7waqpFhXkqarwZeA&s=19
  21. Stormlover74
    Mid 70s unless you're on LBI
  22. Stormlover74
    Full flower moon and a fighter jet cloud
  23. Stormlover74
    Yeah friends want to have a pool party Monday. Trying to convince them to move it to Sunday
  24. Stormlover74
    63 mph gust near jersey city
  25. Stormlover74
    Models don't have anything this afternoon
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