ForestHillWx

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

So….lake george? Anyone been to that winter fest?

Fun times when I was up there during college. Duffy’s tavern, a few other places, had some tasty beverages when looking out over a frozen paradise. 

1 hour ago, Doorman said:

 

Your gravy for now VW

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml

Slight negative title should lead to earlier capture and more tucked for us in western NJ

North and west (I live in southwest Morris) has always been subject to a hard cut-off; every model depicts it. I’m starting with that mindset and will adjust as necessary. Happy hunting to those further East. 
 

There’s a certain level of catharsis exhibited in some of the more prolific posts; every storm it never fails.
 

Model jumping, and then projecting the worst outcome each time, with the underlying hope that said poster is wrong. 

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/05/major-atlantic-current-may-be-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/?sh=42b0d96a47aa

The study, which appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change, found several signs that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, is slowing down and might be about to collapse.Aug 5, 2021

Interesting article, however it quite clearly says it’s a hypothesis. 
 

The additional tweets bluewave posted support the contention that the ssts do have an effect on storms; understood. But again based on the graph published this morning the ssts are 0.5 degrees above historical averages. 
 

My point is that there are more factors then sst anomaly’s involved in snow totals, etc. 

Not trying to derail the thread, but wanted to respond. 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It matters if it's the gulf stream is warmer than normal, I'm not sure the near coastal waters have much to do with it.  Slowing down of the gulf stream and the thermohaline circulation matters too.

 

What evidence is there that the Gulf Stream is slowing down?

I just think the sst anomaly is being given too much weight in the potential to increase snow totals when compared to a multitude of other factors. 

Re: SST anomaly, the chart bluewave posted this morning showed 0.5C above historical norms. According to NOAA the bouy for Cape May had 36.7 F and Sandy Hook 34.9F today (too lazy to do conversions). 

Not sure it has the same effect as 24C+ water in the late summer when dealing with tropical systems in terms of “fuel”. Granted I will take any infusion of moisture possible being in the western zone. 

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. 

Hahah, now I feel old. 

17 currently. Nice string of sub freezing weather. 

4 degrees. Tied my lowest got this winter. Sub zero are not too far north based on wunderground. I wonder if I can make a run at it next cold shot. 

9 currently. Pond hockey in town in full swing. The town sledding hill not so much, but at least the skating is good for the kids this year. 

Winter cancel? Get the garden prepped early this year. (Some sarc as it’s mid-January). 

Closing in on 1” in Chester. Roads are covered. 

Snow showers in chester NJ

Flipped back to snow showers at 9:00 am. Property is a mess with water logged snow on top of a thin layer of ice. 

Eyeballing 3”; dense stuff. Can hear some pings, so the change is upon us. Decent winds.
 

What a shame, could have been a monster with some decent blocking. 

It’s legit ripping down this way, not sure how long we will hold out. 

Ripping good now. Enjoying it while it lasts. 

27 with moderate snow. Main roads are getting bad. Light snow removal tonight considering the holiday. 

Snow here as well. Winds have picked up. 

24/12, clouded up now. 

19 currently…almost noon. I see a few clouds, but otherwise nice and sunny. Still in amazement that aside from a few flurries we are staring down the barrel of a windswept rainstorm. 

To chime in, we do have a storm with impressive dynamics that is more than worthy of a dedicated thread; however we are not getting the end result that we all desire. 
 

Walt, it’s always a pleasure. Personally, I am glad you in are in the north/west thread as well. 

2/-7; going to be wild watching it rain in 12 hrs. 

16 currently. Not terrible in the sun.