mgerb

There's definitely a subjective aspect to it, and one author may interpret the slew of objective data sets slightly differently than another. Aside from precip, ground water, river flow, a range of drought indices, and reports from the ground are all used to compile the product. In terms of how it's made, you might check out this short video (first below) and then a much longer and presumably much more detailed video below that (second). I think they'll be instructive in explaining how it all comes together.

I can't reveal too much, as the final decisions lie with the national author. But from the state climate office side, we suggested mostly status quo (no change) this week, aside from removing some lingering D0 in eastern Ocean (warranted with the heavy rain from the nor'eater). They also eased up a bit in Bergen and eastern Passaic, which is fine too given the 1.50"-2.00" rainfall there, as we were on the fence about recommending improvement there or waiting. As for the areas of degradation in the western parts of the state, it's really just slight expansions of existing D0 (in Burlington) and D2 (in the far northwest), which we didn't explicitly suggest, but have no problem with given the continued dry conditions and relatively low totals from the weekend storm. Very minor changes overall. If you haven't yet, I'd recommend checking out the comparison slider, as it nicely shows the specific category changes from last week to this week. You can zoom into NJ: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ComparisonSlider.aspx

Some of us definitely do.

0.41" in Somerset (0.53" including Saturday's rain). The cutoff is quite extreme, but this aspect of the event was (eventually) modeled well. Was hoping it might just push a tad further west. Better than nothing though! The drought continues.

It's also in a very low lying valley. Just perfect radiational cooling conditions there. https://www.njweather.org/station/79

About 0.65" in my part of Somerset (Franklin Twp). Pretty intense storm, borderline severe, with some hail mixed in. Not a ton of thunder when it get here. Lots of small branches (and a few large ones) down in my neighborhood. Township is actually requesting no unnecessary travel, so think some damage was worse in other parts of town. Definitely glad to have some good rains over the past few days (over an inch here as well).

Looks like we'll pick up a hundredth or two here in Somerset. Not helpful.

Can confirm that this is likely, at least on the NJ side (subject to the final call by the author).

Yeah. I'm at 0.46" month-to-date (actually back to 7/27). Among the driest in the state (at least for CoCoRaHS). https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=mtd&displayna=0&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.86859130859376,39.65645604812829,-72.25433349609376,41.44066745847661

Say no more.

Very well may be. Sandy soils tend to heat up more quickly. Btw, there's a NJWxNet Mesonet station at Miller Airpark (separate from the AWOS), so you can always take a look at that too for corroboration with the KMJX reports: https://www.njweather.org/station/1032

It is. That's from the NJWxNet.

It's the flash flooding threat that's the concern.

Agree. Can see a (differential heating/outflow) surface boundary extending ENE from into central Somerset. I suspect storms will form/travel along the boundary. My hunch is from there south has the highest threat.

Yup. Can confirm. The sensor crapped out during maintenance this morning. So it'll be down for a while while awaiting a new sensor to be prepared. Sigh.

For sure. If you check out the NY state FORTS inventory here, you'll find a few dozen "New York" stations, some as far back as the early 1800s. But not sure if these are indeed all NYC stations and the data quality or completeness. But if interested, definitely suggest poking around there to try to learn more.

No one was "sitting on this data." Rather, it was uncovered through some old-fashioned library research combined with FORTS data. Here's some more detailed background:

Two drownings in Plainfield, unfortunately: https://www.nj.com/weather/2025/07/flooding-kills-2-women-in-vehicle-swept-into-brook-during-fierce-nj-storms.html 3.29" final total here.

Just a touch under 3.00" in Somerset near New Brunswick.

Sure. I just mean more coverage than 12Z, when there was basically nothing.

Looks like the NAM got a clue between 12Z and 18Z.

Click link to zoom in: https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=custom&displayna=0&from=2025-07-01&to=2025-07-02&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.93176269531251,38.63189092902837,-72.31750488281251,40.44276659332215

Exactly the same here. Storms generally fizzled on approach (what else is new), but glad to have a decent soaking given the dry June.

This is probability of severe wind, not general wind conditions.

About 1.80" for the month here, so yes, would like some rain. Haven't really had a legit thunderstorm yet this year either.