mgerb

Yeah. I'm at 0.46" month-to-date (actually back to 7/27). Among the driest in the state (at least for CoCoRaHS). https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=mtd&displayna=0&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.86859130859376,39.65645604812829,-72.25433349609376,41.44066745847661

Say no more.

Very well may be. Sandy soils tend to heat up more quickly. Btw, there's a NJWxNet Mesonet station at Miller Airpark (separate from the AWOS), so you can always take a look at that too for corroboration with the KMJX reports: https://www.njweather.org/station/1032

It is. That's from the NJWxNet.

It's the flash flooding threat that's the concern.

Agree. Can see a (differential heating/outflow) surface boundary extending ENE from into central Somerset. I suspect storms will form/travel along the boundary. My hunch is from there south has the highest threat.

Yup. Can confirm. The sensor crapped out during maintenance this morning. So it'll be down for a while while awaiting a new sensor to be prepared. Sigh.

For sure. If you check out the NY state FORTS inventory here, you'll find a few dozen "New York" stations, some as far back as the early 1800s. But not sure if these are indeed all NYC stations and the data quality or completeness. But if interested, definitely suggest poking around there to try to learn more.

No one was "sitting on this data." Rather, it was uncovered through some old-fashioned library research combined with FORTS data. Here's some more detailed background:

Two drownings in Plainfield, unfortunately: https://www.nj.com/weather/2025/07/flooding-kills-2-women-in-vehicle-swept-into-brook-during-fierce-nj-storms.html 3.29" final total here.

Just a touch under 3.00" in Somerset near New Brunswick.

Sure. I just mean more coverage than 12Z, when there was basically nothing.

Looks like the NAM got a clue between 12Z and 18Z.

Click link to zoom in: https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=custom&displayna=0&from=2025-07-01&to=2025-07-02&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-76.93176269531251,38.63189092902837,-72.31750488281251,40.44276659332215

Exactly the same here. Storms generally fizzled on approach (what else is new), but glad to have a decent soaking given the dry June.

This is probability of severe wind, not general wind conditions.

About 1.80" for the month here, so yes, would like some rain. Haven't really had a legit thunderstorm yet this year either.

Recent posting by WFO-PHI confirms that 99 was the high at PHL.

I mean, 94 is the high so far. Yeah, not sure what the deal is with that. I know what you mean.

94 at New Brunswick, FWIW.

Right. With the strong inversion, there's no winds mixing down north of the warm front. That's why it's been so calm. That will change once the cold front passes.

It really would affect both, but would expect to see it more at night when increased moisture and (perhaps) clouds could reduce overnight cooling. During the day, temps are largely driven by solar insolation, and the presence or lack of can overtake other factors. Just spitballing though; it's all very complicated and depends on many factors. Point is, the GLs contain huge thermal inertia that greatly affects climate within the 50-100 miles downwind. Less clear as you get down towards our area and I'd agree that any effect is likely very subtle.

But there IS research on this topic that quantifies climate with/without the Great Lakes. For example, see the paper below. Doesn't answer how much the GLs affect NYC-area climate specifically (falls just outside the "Great Lakes Basin" domain), but it's apparent that the large thermal inertia of the GLs has a notable effect on regional climate. That wouldn't completely disappear outside the domain, but no doubt it's reduced compared to areas closer to the lakes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/3/jcli-d-12-00140.1.pdf

Never said that. I'm referring to air mass modification vis-à-vis the transport of polar air masses over the Great Lakes, particularly just downwind. The effect is reduced the further you travel from the lakes, but it's not zero.

OK....don't know what you mean. It is quantifiable. Look at a DP map during the winter upwind vs downwind of the Great Lakes.