ShawnEastTN

Even with it likely just fantasy it's nice to see 6z GFS with 540 thickness making it into Upper East Tennessee at hour 294....

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4 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Will bust a little higher than most modeling (way higher than MRX/local forecasts). Most areas between Huntsville and southern Mid TN picked up around 1.5" 

Looks like you were spot on.  Was way off MRX forecast, but on the back edge now of precip, and have 1.46"

Now at 1.10"

Think I am going to bust high on Precip for the day.  Already at .75" and precip rates are running pretty high at times, looking at radar and current rates I anticipate around 2" minimum today, way above forecast.

IMBY I ended the last 2 days at .96" of rain and pretty amazed to see the impact today in the creeks. Creeks between my house and Athens have risen and turned red with such small totals. It's really strange to see, hope Sunday isn't too bad.

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Still coming down here sitting now at 5.38" for the day today.

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Just started pouring here again thunderstorm type rates.

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My February to date. 12.77" more than 1/3 of that month to date was today so far.

 

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Just finally out of that train IMBY. Since midnight 4.67" for the day so far.

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MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life. 

I have noticed that as well. They tend to use areal way more.

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Subway restaurant Signal Mountain destroyed by mudslide.

 

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I can't get over how heavy the rain is at times. Just had summer thunderstorm precip rates for about 10 minutes. It does that let's up a little then right back to it. I'm now past 3" since midnight.

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Went to bed it wasnt even raining. Thought well it won't be that bad. Wake up yard is flooded, rain gauge showing 2.89" since midnight.

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Honestly I cannot remember ever reading a forecast or graphic that included “potentially life threatening” for heavy rain including landslides in ETn CWA and I’m 44.

 

 

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I was thinking the same thing. Strong language, they are definitely taking it seriously for sure. Though IMBY, I cannot remember a wetter winter either. Just since last Friday IMBY I've recorded 5.3" of rain, of course that's on top of all the wet weather before. I think it is an exceptional situation considering the time of the year with no plant life to assist in taking in that water from the soil.

 

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They went into HUN area as well, from reading the AFD, I believe they are trying to reach as many as possible regardless of CWA.

Yeah now that you mention it they drew into MEG also. Interesting usually they stop short of crossing into neighboring CWAs, or just barely draw into a neighbor but the definitely didn't use that restraint in that graphic.

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From OHX:
 

They drew that graphic all the way into MRX area I'm in their concern area.

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Starting to become a little more concerned this afternoon and overnight for the central and southern valley. Risk of flash flooding from torrential rain and training is increasing on the hi res models. PWAT values are near 1.6+ coming up the valley now, with storms training over the area. Unlike the past couple waves involving a large rain shield, 1.5+ is being produced over a very short time.

12z 3k and HRRR

I ended just under 2" from yesterday IMBY, it won't take much to have road closures in my area from flooding, some areas are teetering on it already.

 

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A lot of thunder and lightning rates have really picked up. Just checked and now at 1.25".

 

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Closing in on .75" and a long ways to go looking at the radar for the night.

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Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide off

I bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up.

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Thunder and lightning IMBY.

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.72 Friday night IMBY on the Tennessee River on Watts Bar Lake. So far today .87 looking as though will end probably around 1.5 by morning looking at rates. Creeks are running high, going to be an interesting week.

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85 here in Sevierville currently.  Out here for work, need AC in the car, ridiculous!

 
 
   
 
 

Screw it I'm moving to a more wintry location like Shreveport Louisiana.

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It happens@AMZ8990, not a huge deal.

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