ShawnEastTN

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Posts posted by ShawnEastTN


  1. I think this is going to be interesting... Dewpoints around the valley are intriguing. My dewpoint currently is 29, most locations from a line from Dayton to Athens and north are around or below freezing except nearest to the Eastern mountains and far southern valley where dewPoints are in the mid to upper 30's.

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  2. I definitely don't expect any watches as in Winter Storm Watches, I would not be surprised to see WWA for far southern counties after 0Z, I know MRX hugs Euro and it's thermals are not great but with neighboring CWA pressure for continuity and the model trends I could see it, however it's far more likely tomorrow after 12z.

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  3. There was a scenario several years back where modeling was not enthused at all about precip into Tennessee.  I remember Robert @ WxSouth ended up picking up on the inverted trough and in the end there was a decent snow from it.  I can't remember the year, but my recollection tells me the basics were familiar... (i.e. overrunning, inverted trough, no defined low, etc.)
    Does anyone else remember this event?
    I think I remember a handful of those over the years, those are the ones that I remember Morristown having to continually up their forecast snow totals for during the actual events.

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  4. I always try to looks at small details for any event in East TN. Mainly because the terrain can cause things to go unexpectedly wrong or sometimes in our favor. Looking at the NAM, the thing I like about this system is that low level winds over WNC are from a more easterly direction during the start of the system, while winds over the ETN valley are more northerly. This typically happens when we get an inverted trough induced along the mountains, which helps provide some low level lift and often produces more precip than modeled. This current situation is more subtle, but the characteristics are still there. It’s something to watch to see if precip trends upward as we go.
    Would be awesome if we can get that NNE wind down the valley during this event, those have been life savers for these scenarios in the past.

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  5. Daytime events this time of year can be harder, but generally if they start pre-dawn or right around dawn they have a far better chance than if they start later in the day. 6-7am is usually the coldest part of the day if we get the clouds and precip falling during that window it can stall the temps keeping them from rising especially if good precip rates.

     

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  6. Euro precip projections.  Up close and personal:
    giphy.gif&key=df5d4f74a305b4922c8c8676094e925348ccfc25d772640b5d37bacd10a3d41e
    EPS city plots:
    giphy.gif&key=6014f64ef3c3d804acd3bb4da4db49b59478592e8b9bc9bf14d60570d9b0550c
     
    Crazy stuff, verbatim that puts just at or just under 13" of rain in my back yard over 10 days. Being winter there just isn't anything to drink up that water from the soil. Could make last February's flooding look trivial.

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