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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. Although IMBY if I get more than an inch in one storm that will be the most I will have gotten in 1 storm in the last 2 seasons. I've only been dusted over and over the last 2 seasons.
  2. That is what I would like to see, a front alone makes me squeamish on getting too excited, but additional energy in our neck of the woods and not just way up in Georgian Bay and James Bay helps.
  3. Pivitol weather has good maps with kuchera ratios.
  4. Yeah I remember the one in 2010, but I don't think I got more than 2" from that one here at my house. I really only remember that one because of the crazy cold that followed and the inlet on Watts Bar Lake that I live on completely freezing then snow on the ice making for a surreal scene for this part of the country. Reminded me of my childhood in Michigan that year with the ice on the lake here.
  5. I remember many rain to snow events that dropped good snows, but most of those I remember were not anafrontal like what is modeled, I remember SLPs passing close enough to be rain in the valley over to wrap around snow/trowl that performed really well just can't pinpoint many plain jane anafrontal events. I remember a few surprise anafrontal events I think I remember that one in 94, and another in the early 2000's that even seemed to catch MRX off guard in terms of their forecast. I just don't remember many that were anafrontal moisture in the great valley that is, but I am down for however mother nature wants to deliver the goods.
  6. If we could get this to verify... Those ratios of course start on the low end but would rapidly rise through the whole event as modeled. Would be a fun storm, but part of me worries about getting excited for what is essentially anafrontal snow with as many times as they have been complete let downs. I can count on 1 hand how many times I got more than 2" of snow IMBY in an anafrontal scenario in the last 30 years. Maybe its just time for one to really perform for us.
  7. 0Z GFS looks juicier than the 18Z so far for the Tues event.
  8. Also continues to advertise next Tuesdays event and even at 10:1 ratio which is likely low for the event's average the whole forum is 2-4". Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  9. Technically I prefer at this stage the precip show south and east of us. How many times over the years models show a massive accumulation over the forum area only for it to shift North and West plastering Kentucky for example in the final few days and blanking us. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  10. I was just about to post the same. Still seeing returns as far south and west as Little Rock. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  11. I am extremely excited, and hopeful but there is a part of me that begins to worry about storm track suppression if we can't get something at the start of the cold intrusion especially with it being so insanely strong. We seem to score at the start of an outbreak and when it begins to retreat so I'm hopeful we can get our break. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  12. It also seems like it's been quite a long time since I've seen the fantasy storms and cold being modeled relatively consistently. Maybe 3 or 4 years since I remember seeing multiple fantasy storms coming up on multiple runs. Of course getting them over the hump out of fantasy into closer range will be nice. I have to say I'm getting pretty excited, and I usually temper that quite a bit. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  13. 850s look a bit better on 12z EPS at least at onset. Hopefully a trend. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  14. 12z GFS has trended further south with the surface low by about 100 miles on panel 96 and 102. Hopefully the start of a trend. Edit:. At 108 even further south than previous run. Thermals all still look horrible. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  15. Can confirm as of just a minute ago they are convective. Nice close bolt in Kingston just down the road from Harriman. Made me jump as I was running to my car in the rain in a parking lot. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  16. I have to say I'm starting to worry about this season... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  17. 12Z GFS out to 54 looks about like a carbon copy of 6Z.
  18. That famous north and west jog used to always be prevalent in the last 24 to 48 hour window of modeling.
  19. @[email protected][email protected] Absolutely, I wouldn't tap out completely yet, we see this frequently year to year where a storm's northern precip shield is vastly under modeled, on one hand if that is the case and there is more dry air in northern areas (stronger and or further south High), could help with evaporational cooling for many in northern fringes. To me a tick south at this stage in the game isn't a bad thing. The FV3 is still generous.
  20. That is true. I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time. The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA. Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year. The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in.
  21. Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there. It was a dramatic change by GSP.
  22. I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.
  23. MRX issues Winter Storm Watches for NE TN, SW VA, and Smokies.