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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I'm stoked to just for the possibility to see big wet flakes, even if they don't accumulate. I enjoy watching it fall of course would rather have it stick if possible but is what it is. Though if HRRR is any indication if you are south of Morristown in the valley looks like rain.
  2. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    SREF Plumes have jumped even higher this morning. TYS up to 3.09" mean, TRI 3.11", BNA 1.89", LOZ, 3.12" CHA .87", all with Big Dogs around and above 7", with the exception of Chatt with a big dog around 4".
  3. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    18Z to 96 looks like either going to be a cutter, or Miller B. Edit... LOL SLP in Eastern Ohio at 102, then Transfer off the Delmarva. Miller B it be! Edit #2: The more I look at this I think we have to get storm #1 through before we will have SLP track nailed down. Seems when multiple storms like this come through over the years the preceding one effects modeling for the second.
  4. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    GFS looks a bit more robut with the first system and a degree or 2 cooler, and better accumulating snow than 12Z.
  5. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    MRX on Thursday into Friday system:
  6. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    I'll take slush with big giant wet snowflakes if that is all I can get.
  7. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Funny thing is watch this one over perform, and the next one be a dud for us... lol Take it where we can get it. Also plumes had all but died off, now they are at least for TYS the highest they have been for the event, Mean at 1.56" big dog over 6".
  8. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    What is really crazy is if I only saw the feature placements on this map with being middle of winter I would say dang, about to get walloped! Nice big strong High in the plains SLP going up through SC to Hatteras, looks beautiful on paper. I definitely wouldn't be thinking its raining all the way to the Ohio River.
  9. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    WPC picking up on the chances this weekend with the possible Miller. First period of event: Second period of event:
  10. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Agree, but I don't like them to amp until turning toward the NE while in southern GA, when they strengthen too soon they amplify WAA into the Eastern Valley, but if they amp after they have passed east of the valley and the winds are no longer coming from the S or SW thats when I like to see them blow up!
  11. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Love the track depicted for the weekend storm! Hopefully temps are over modeled warm and we can at least just squeak through for the majority of the forum. Also while GFS and Euro have went into the toilet a bit the last run, the Canadian is still advertising accumulating snow with both systems. RGEM doesn't look terrible for the first event.
  12. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    18Z GFS is virtually nothing, for anyone this event.
  13. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Interesting Afternoon Disco from MRX on both storms talking about advisories for Thursday into Friday storm:
  14. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    MRX on the Thursday into Friday storm:
  15. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    SREF Plums for the storm still look pretty good actually, below are the mean and big dog member for area locations. Some have seen large jumps in mean and big dogs over 24 hours. TYS: Mean 1.47" - Big Dog - 5.44" TRI: Mean 1.89" - Big Dog - 5.12 BNA: Mean .47" - Big Dog - 2.23" CHA: Mean .22" - Big Dog - 1.60" CSV: Mean .92" - Big Dog - 3.47" LOZ: Mean 1.42" - Big Dog - 4.22"
  16. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    To add to John's thoughts also seems, generally speaking when we begin as snow before sunrise models tend to overdue warming after sunrise and its usually harder to switch back to rain than is generally modeled, especially if precip rates aren't too light.
  17. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Echo tnweathernut in the appreciation of the euro text data Jax! Nice to see, much better than graphical in detail, and quick to see what you are working with.
  18. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Stronger storm further north with more WAA. If this thing is going to track that far north it needs to be a weak storm, or we need the cold to be more entrenched ahead of time.
  19. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Welcome to the Forum! Time frame really depends on model but generally Thursday night/Friday morning for winter precip, rain ahead of that generally.
  20. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Sref Means for the event while still ongoing but beginning to get into the first event for Thursday. TYS: .5" - Big Dog at 3.9" TRI: 1.09" - Big Dog at 4.10" BNA: .27" - Big Dog at 2.07 CHA: .16" - Big Dog at 3.06" CSV: .37" - Big Dog at 3.94" LOZ (London/Corbin KY): .51" - Big Dog at 4.37"
  21. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Banter 2017/18

    You getting anything tonight John?
  22. ShawnEastTN

    2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Glad to have OBS from Cumberland County! You should post more often. Sadly down the mountain in the Valley from Cumberland county and I am still sitting at 42, and no precip.
  23. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Looking at the features, that isn't as bad a set up as it may look on the precip maps for the eastern valley. NE wind down the eastern valley for most of the event, starts predawn as snow. I would take that any day of the week and twice on sunday!
  24. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    18Z GFS also looks beefy for the second half of the weekend event. I'll take either the 12Z Euro 4" or 18Z GFS 6" IMBY and cash out.
  25. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    I'll cash in now!
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