Supernovice

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

How did he get in the well is the question

Karen Read pushed him. Prove me wrong.

What a storm in the Black Sea. I’d pay good money for this here:

People are saying you can tell a lot about someone if they both, put up and turn on outdoor Christmas lights in mid-November. I’m not the one saying it, but people are talking.

4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Ha. I get my coffee and muffin at this store right before work and the card reader presents me with the option for a tip every time. Nope!

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Recently experienced a self service airport kiosk with no human workers at all, that prompted me for a tip. Like where does that $$ go?
 

Mind blown.

26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It could be worse. You could be trading natural gas futures.

Fixed it for you.

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'd like to see that, I watched the trailer but haven't got around to seeing it, amazing that woman was found after 5 days by the dog.

The whole story is just amazing/tragic. It's really well done and would highly recommend. This really becomes the basis for modern U.S. avalanche forecasting and rescue.

Watching a documentary “Buried” on Netflix. About an avalanche in 1982 and meteorology, topography, ski patrols etc… Feel like it would resonate with some on this board, worth the watch.

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that trough amplitude was in the 00z mean, too.  I mentioned this morning that the ens means were (all 3) apparently emerging but I haven't had a chance to take in the 12z. I did see the operational GFS (ew) and got pissed.  Lol

Unrelated but see your infamous light year speed jet stream is engaged tonight. Europe bound flights over the N. Atlantic doing ~750mph ground speed.

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I believe they have multiple properties.

From what i understand they were there earlier today, left…a cop who had it under surveillance saw a shadow move/ a curtain flutter…. So now they’re back….again little idea if that’s true but  would make sense.

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

where are you hearing this? 

https://x.com/station_51_/status/1717517073553744244?s=46&t=ej91V1PwyPgv_VUNXsO_yQ

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This the latest?

Correct, no way of verifying if that’s him or even true given the current state of things…but they are looking for that truck. Should have said *stolen out of Oxford, me*

BOLO- Blue Suburban out of Boxford, Me on 93s, near NH/MA border...93s during rush hour- not the cleanest escape route.

Anyone else notice Tim Kelley step off the deep end with politics? The other day I noticed a quasi CC denying post, and was like hmmm…now he’s jumping into the border and immigration situation. Seems like something one would want to avoid.

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SW lower Michigan is in some kind of exotic trouble this evening...  jesus.

93/80 at Kalamazoo, with S sfc wind, NW at 700 mb, and SRS just S of a warm boundary that is currently collapsing S of Lake Michigan.  Meanwhile, the inversion cloud wave forms have just gone... vanquished, which means their losing CIN - the 'core is exposed'

That watch is for the whole gambit.   SBCAPEs must be like over 4000

From MI last night:

https://x.com/goddessofgrain/status/1695039462583992733?s=46&t=ej91V1PwyPgv_VUNXsO_yQ

There are certainly some major MAJOR US military installations under threat from this thing. I keep thinking of one in particular constructed on a dry lake bed in Nevada that may not be dry after this.

2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

If your whole lawn looks like that, I don't know if it needs an overseed. I would just hit it with fertilizer. That looks pretty dense, but pics can be deceiving sometimes.

I mean basically yes, but I have some rust spots I gotta take out etc…it’ll look worse after I’m done with it ha.

I do- with water sensor. But ya I dunno I might wait until mid next week when I stop in to hit it one more time then overseed and fertilize. Thunderstorms tonight scare me. Anyways here’s the result, shrunken and manipulated down to fit here- which was surprising tough.

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Just had the entire lawn stripped, regraded, loamed and seeded. Seed went down on Monday and it's popping pretty good. A little early, but given the pattern decided to go for it. 

Kinda my thought- can’t beat the pattern. Also will be away for the next two weeks and before you know it, I’ll be running up against climatological first frost- I like 6 weeks between seeding and frost. Oh well- going for it. Thanks for the input!

Am I crazy for thinking about dethatching and seeding today… 2 weeks early-ish? Any thoughts?

Off Jenness in Rye, Nh

55 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

You're also conflating the raw calculation of std deviation (which is divorced from whether or not the data is normally distributed) vs a recurrence interval (which requires the PDF) - and the latter isn't mentioned in the tweet.

Listen- I don’t want to argue the point to death. That chart is crap- it’s been reposted a million times, not just here, I was going to post about it regardless if anything was on here- it’s not a personal attack on you at all. 

The data is very very concerning but let’s represent it in an accurate format. That’s all I’m saying.

15 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

what in the fuck is going on in Antarctica...

 

This stuff is beyond infuriating. Let me preface my quick rant by saying climate change is undeniably real.

Now- you can see in the data that almost every year produces at least multiple 1-2 sigma events. This means the data is not normally distributed which makes sense because weather is not normally distributed (I.e doesn’t fall in a bell curve). So when that happens you need to normalize your data in order to then analyze it.

what you don’t do is call it good enough and claim we are under going a 6 sigma event. It ruins the credibility of the science of CC not to mention your own. This stuff is scary enough, I don’t know why charlatans have to exaggerate and obfuscate- it’s unreal.

Anyone have the app or website that Epstein is referencing below?

also pretty dark sh*t that I’m going to add it to my favs on all platforms. 

Woulda been cool if they got Jim Cantore, but I’ll settle for Jim Catnore I guess.

Anyone wondering about the cause: