wxdawg10

in every scenario i've seen Wake County gets hit pretty good..I think the Bullseye will be somewhere between Orange County and Greenville

People have been clowning the GFS but it's been the most consistent with this storm and refused to budge..Every one else is caving to it. If this verifies, win of the century for the GFS

Is the "king" about to be dethroned by our AI overlords? Maybe just maybe..

We regularly get burned but we never learn our lesson. Fantasy snow maps are like the toxic ex we can't get over.

tbh alot of Mets did. this was one of the trickiest storms to nail

based on all guidance you, as a storm tracker here on this forum, saw following this storm, i think that word was valid. I don't know why you're trying to act like all of us here weren't worried about a dangerous ice storm.

It's never been more difficult to be a met..for a variety of reasons. a wrong call could very well mean their livelyhood. the finest of lines to walk. So honestly i don't blame some of them for being defensive or putting out 10 different maps or waiting last minute. On top of this storm just being extremely difficult to nail down. local mets need a win. A storm where they say its gonna snow 10 inches and it snows 10 inches.

and the fat lady sings..i'll take an IP storm with a coating of ZR and call the winter

Brad P is one of the best in the business. I used to live off every model run and bought into many fantasy storms and extreme solutions that Brad never budged on..even when other mets bought the hype. He nailed it everytime. Some don't like his conservative forecasting but he calls it as it is. It was a humbling reminder that most of us here are amateur fanatics and there is more to forecasting than flip flopping model runs. So when he's bullish on a storm, there's something there.

I mean..sounds like what we have known. Initial Thump of snow then a mix. Nothing new

So for all the uncertainty, why are you certain in the one extreme solution not being backed by other guidance? strange. if you want to cliff dive, there's a thread for that

Will keep correcting south. NC piedmont looks to be the bullseye from all i've seen today so far

A war is happening on X between NE mets hugging the Euro AI and their followers seeing anything but southern trends. interesting how this ends up

this is getting spicy

she's a beaut clark

Very strong signals this far out. Cold appears to be in place before the storm arrives. I doubt the wide spread foot of snow across the carolinas verifies but 3-5 inches feels like a good bet

there's a pocket of precip that just developed over wake county lol. snowing around eastern wake county

NE NC might see a foot. big winners

Precip is juicing up around the triangle..earlier than modeled. radar is starting to blossom

Flurries in durham around miami blvd

is this real? my god..

By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up.

This signal has been there for about a week and no matter the fluctuations, every model keeps either hinting or coming back to something big. This is different from our usual storms where everything fizzles out accross the board with zero hope.

Whoever escapes the warm nose will be the big winners. the warm nose in the carolina is equivalent to a stronger version of thanos with the gauntlet

Another problem, is some mets obsession with "getting it right" it becomes a competiton. Which leads to some wild forecasts and unecessary risks. We all love snow, but lets be real, the best mets always preach caution and are conservative by nature to varying degrees. If a storm is difficult to forecast, they communicate it. An Honest met is often well respected. even when they get it wrong. Then there are the engagement farmers. They post fantasy runs 5 days out with a throw away disclaimer so they can say "see, you guys are the ones who overreacted, i just showed what MIGHT happen"