wxdawg10
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Everything posted by wxdawg10
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if this verifies..new king on the block.
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i think he meant January 2017. the infamous bust
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I think Allan mentioned earlier that alot of the moisture will get eaten up by dryer air as it moves into the piedmont and the storm won't really crank until sunday. This might cut some totals and i'm not sure if models take this into account.
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i think it'll go up the closer we get to the event. radar already looking extremely healthy. that plus the model trends overnight i don't see how they don't.
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someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it. it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point
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Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon
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i've never seen such variation for RDU on accumulation maps as i have with this storm..I've seen anywhere from a trace to 9 inches lol. Being a met that covers wake co in the winter has be the hardest thing in the world
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how far north does the warm nose get?
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looks like Allan Huffman is going all in on this. RAH still on an island
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Man would love to see what Robert would have had to say about this storm. The guy was amazing during my lurking days and i learned alot from his discussions
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Last year's bust is still fresh in their minds. Seems like they're letting NC climo take precedence over model guidance and they won't sound the horn until they know for sure. tbh i don't blame them. But i think they will eventually. Then again there's been storms in the past where i felt like i knew better and was certain we would get a good storm but RAH's forecast of cold rain to trace amounts ended up being right. These guys are skilled mets. we shall see. Insert other media
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i wonder what he's seeing
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yeah it's insane. The crazy part is they're still holding back
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if the big boys hold serve tonight, i think there's gonna be alot of alarm sounding going on tomorrow by mets from GA to VA
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I think this is a win for mostly everyone. i'd take it. Super tight gradient around wake
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probably the most logical snow map. i'd prob subtract 2 inches from those totals but it's more or less what i'm expecting.
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ouch..
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For folks around the triangle, it's gonna be close. The fact every model has basically flip flopped one way or another tells me there may be surprises. Greensboro west is gonna jackpot. The rain/snow line looks like it can be be anywhere between i-95 and Durham co. Certainly still time left for the models to trend colder and put more of the state in the game the closer we get to the event.
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might end up pulling north
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good thing i bought an umbrella yesterday
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gonna have to be careful not to drown stepping out the door in this raging rainstorm
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These runs need to stay consistent for the next 2 days before i bite. But the trends are on our side
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I've seen this story play out so many times..model hug at your own peril. Southeast climo is a beast and more often than not, it wins out. it's nice to have a storm to track but models are poor getting a handle on these storms 3+ days out. I do believe somebody is gonna get crushed but who? it's toss up at this point.
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one of the biggest busts in recent memory. what made it worse was the constant back and forth by mets as the event was unfolding and still being wrong every single time and getting attacked on twitter. just a sad situation all around..
