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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Agreed, especially for areas along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD, where there pretty good agreement on storm coverage. Also think that there should be more emphasis today on the threat for trees coming down easily in storm wind gusts, given the saturated soil.
  2. high risk
    That sums it up. Looking more closely, the last 5 (at least) NAM nest cycles show this, along with the 12z HRRR and all last night's Hi-Res Windows. It's rather impressive agreement. I'm still concerned about trees toppling easily in the saturated ground.
  3. high risk
    Multiple NAM nest cycles show storms initiating well ahead of the main squall line late Wednesday afternoon on some sort of lee trough. Instability is decent, and deep layer shear is probably sufficient for some svr gusts. Given how wet the soil is, I suspect that trees could come down even if gusts are only in the 35 kt range.
  4. high risk
    The low-level shear that favored rotation today will NOT be present tomorrow.
  5. high risk
    ah geez. UMD has a private company issue tornado warnings for their campus, independent of NWS warnings. https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/UMD-Alerts-Students-to-Tornado-That-Never-Came-131854018.html That must be what's happening again today. That couplet that's near Silver Spring now was never really on a path towards campus.
  6. high risk
    looks like a weak couplet near Takoma Park
  7. high risk
    Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR, while the greatest coverage of storms will be over the next few hours, a few more could be around later during the night. Decent shear profiles will remain in place, and instability won't drop off much in this air mass. Not sure we can rule out an isolated supercell overnight.
  8. high risk
    The 15z update removed our area from slight risk (still in marginal) and specifically noted the reduced threat for DC/MD/VA in the discussion.
  9. high risk
    You beat me to posting this. Definitely looks like training setting up for Ellicott City right now.
  10. high risk
    lightning show as this storm approached was fantastic. now getting a legit downpour
  11. high risk
    I'd love to hug that too, even as a fantasy, but in the meantime, I'll hug something that's actually in the short range: GFS and Canadian both show some pretty major cold air damming Sunday, with a rainy here and daytime temps in the 60s.
  12. high risk
    pretty impressive rainfall rates here in southern Howard County
  13. high risk
    The question seems to be whether any storms will fire during the day out ahead of the main forcing. Neither the cape nor shear are particularly crazy during the day, but the combination must just be sufficient for SVR if we get storms. Otherwise, the best chance of widespread storms is way late during the evening (as per the NAM3), but they might be slightly elevated with lesser threat of SVR. I am also keeping an eye on Wednesday, when the secondary cold front arrives during peak heating, with better lapse rates and deep layer shear in place.
  14. high risk
    I thought about that, but that's clearly something that would mix out quickly during the heating of the morning hours.
  15. high risk
    Can someone please tell me what LWX is doing the last two days? They keep talking about an inversion that will retard convection, but it simply doesn't exist in any of the forecast soundings, and the relative ease with which convection is developing again today (albeit scattered coverage) confirms it's not that tough to initiate convection in this environment. Forcing is weak, which is preventing widespread development, but the idea that we'd have a quiet day is again going to fail.
  16. high risk
    Not a great showing by LWX today. They mentioned that there was a forecasted cap that would inhibit storm development, but I didn't see it on soundings I looked at this morning. The hi-res models all showed a few cells in the area this afternoon, and they nailed it.
  17. high risk
    Yoda is spot on. The day shift has the ability to update the day 3 if they desire, and I remember seeing it at some point this year during the spring. I think that this was a good call today, and there is a reasonable chance that we'll wake up Tuesday morning in SLGT for day 2.
  18. high risk
    high-res guidance seems to be coming into agreement on a batch of heavy showers and possible storms moving from south to north across the DC metro area Monday afternoon. While uncertainty remains with regards to exact locations, some areas are likely to cash in on good rainfall, given the high PW environment, assuming that the solutions are correct. The decent storm motions should hopefully prevent major flooding, at least for Monday.
  19. high risk
    I commented in the other thread, but I think that the backing of the sfc winds isn't likely. The NAM nest only backs them along an outflow boundary from initial storms (so it would have to be completely nailing the evolution to be correct), and the HRRR doesn't back them at all. The NAM12 actually has widespread backed sfc winds, but it's an outlier. I guess I won't totally rule it out, but I'm not seeing this as tornado threat unless the NAM12 is correctly showing the widespread southeast sfc winds.
  20. high risk
    The sounding from TT shows much weaker low-level winds, so the profile doesn't look as good. Regardless, that extreme backing of the winds in the sounding from Ian (via Yoda) is the result of the model having ongoing storms locally modify the low-level wind field, as opposed to an overall regional setup for tornadoes. I think that the threat for SVR tomorrow here is fairly good, but I don't think that tornadoes are a major concern.
  21. high risk
    I think I'm IN for Friday. Latest NAM3 and HRRR show fairly widespread storms in the very late afternoon / early evening hours, especially along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt. 50 in MD. Forecast soundings show ~2500 j/kg of sfc-based cape with modest lapse rates. Low-level shear is weak, but deep layer shear appears to be sufficient for SVR, given the moderate instability.
  22. high risk
    With all the talk of potential downed trees, even with light winds, it’s alarming to see us in spc’s slight risk for Friday with an explicit mention of damaging winds. Any convective gusts would be devastating.
  23. high risk
    Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week.
  24. high risk
    The last 2 NAM nest cycles do drop a small line segment south towards DC during the early evening hours.
  25. high risk
    north-central/northern MD isn't going to do well based on radar. I misspoke earlier when I said that the line in southern PA matched the NAM3. The NAM3 correctly fired new convection right along the I-95 corridor. The HRRR has been kind of sparse today.
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